Tonight Powell must be very assertive towards terminal rate of 4-4.25 by the end of 2022.
The market so far did not trust Fed, SP500 & Gold did 4days upwards movements.
So tonight if Powell says nothing clearly then market will keep going up .
IF Powell changed his mind about neutral rate then towards keep hiking but not in a hawkish way ( recession is clearly confirmed) then following the blue arrow lines.
if Powell straight away talks about recession and inflation like Volcker time then market following red line to South right away.
i am currently shorting SPX 500 with 100 pips floating profit
so good luck to you all
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unbelievable Powell did my third prediction. Short and straight forward talked about fighting inflation indefinite even facing recession as consequences
so the trading logic is very simple now - PCE DATA, OIL, GEOPOLITICAL
BUT be aware that since everyone know everything the market might go reverse trend at some point shortly after September FOMC