The call is to drop 300 points by the 20th of September. I was waiting for this day to drop below the previous day's low. As of today by the close we completed a swing :
It took almost 7 months to break above the previous high(2877). The rally started on the 9thFebruay and we broke out on the 27th of August. We used up too much time on the upway to rally after the breakout. So this is the kind of break out what is bought by the small guys and sold by the big guys.
The 7 months rally formed a wedge. Yesterday the euphoria pushed out price from the wedge but today we are back again.
I suspect the wedge is going to break to the downside and it will be a fast and merciless drop: 2600 in 3 weeks.
RSI and TSI is supporting the idea.
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Still holding the short position. We are near to the apex. I think Powell is not ready for what he will need to face in the following weeks.
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Today we arrived to the 50 EMA. This is an important level. Most probably we will bounce for 1-2 days . We need to understand that with this trade we are going against Trump simply cannot afford any correction in the market ahead of the elections. So if you bet the farm at this short trade maybe this is the time to take some profit. You never know when they sell off the gold reserves or print a few billions to push it up to the all time highs in a day ...
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Once we break below the 50 EMA we will tag the 100 EMA and maybe the 200 SMA.
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*We need to understand that with this trade we are going against ... We need to understand in this trade we swim upstream.
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Tagging the 100EMA.
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Taking profit on the 50% of the position.
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What a drop. Tmorrow I will close the rest of the position somewhere below the 200 MA ( blue)
Trade closed manually
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This is getting interesting.
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It seems we are going to test 2700 again. We will have a good trade opportunity here I will post a new idea after market close.
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Getting close. I will try to buy this at the breakdown.
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Asia dropped hard in the night.
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We broke down the previous low. It's getting close to the original target at 2600.
It will be a politically turbulent month in the US in October up to a few days before the elections when the outcome will most likely become obvious. So expect market and currency volatility (down and up). It may be one of the best buying opportunities in US equities in a generation. The US Supreme Court vote this weekend will be the trigger to a watershed of events leading up to the midterm elections. There are serious legal, political and military activities queued up over here that depend on this one vote. These activities will affect markets worldwide. Be nimble, buckle up and make money on the ride!
bertcoin
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Yes - If we have any daily close below 2766, we probably retest 2676. So I'm getting more confident that we are within 100 points of a generational buying opportunity on the S&P....
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Nice trade Arpi. More craziness coming in October!
Nightstar
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SPX "right translated" in September suggesting we might need one more cycle to the upside before a significant drop down into an ICL. I'm hoping we'll get it prior to the mid-term elections but that's anyone's guess. Smart Money Edgers have increased their position exponentially and I've bought more shares of TVIX :)
Not sure we have enough time to drop into an ICL, unless we drop HARD like we did back in Jan/Feb. Don't forget, the September rate hike is just around the corner on the 26th (currently showing a 98.4% chance) and as such, the FED will want the Market back up and looking sprightly by then :) Smoke & mirrors is the name of the game folks!
I'm thinking ---- We'll probably drop down into a DCL and back up again for a 5th DC before dropping into a more significant intermediate cycle low.
**Loaded up this week on TVIX.
mrtommifunn
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This is a very stretched cycle plus US elections on the horizon. Good analysis as usual and i agree , though i will be a bystander for this drop as i would rather be a buyer. If i were to short i would also wait for confirmation as the dollar is also due a new daily cycle (that should fail and thats why gold has not moved like a normal DCL so far). I think trump will want new highs for the election.
Zaiteku7
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I am in full agreement with the wedge and yesterday's false breakout. The Nasdaq is showing the exact same pattern and I'm looking to be buyer after the breakdown.