Obvious rising channel that is STEEP and prices have gone parabolic recently. This is shown in the 5 of the recent days at or closing above the outer BB. This pattern reverts to the mean of EMA 39 in >90% of cases. Occasionally prices rise a several more days before turning down but usually they do not. Expect to SHORT tomorrow at ~3200 and expect TP of 2950ish.
Trade active
⋅
Sold almost all LONG positions in every stock today and went SHORT SPX at several levels between 3206 and 3215. Expect retrace to start soon. This does NOT mean I am necessarily thinking we retest the lows. First TP about 2950. This is about 3.5:1 R:R trade for me.
Comment
⋅
Trade is working out as planned. Staying short here. Tightening stop loss.
Comment
⋅
Like I said >90% this setup works out. Approaching Target Price between 2950 and 3000. Plan to start taking profits.
Trade closed: target reached
⋅
Target Price 2965 hit today. Took Profit and closed trade. This trade turned out EXACTLY as planned.
Standard TA is out the window when the fed is printing trillions of dollars for bonds and for the first time in history buying stocks. Look at Japan, 80% of their equities are owned by the government but yen is devalued to shit.
This is what is going to happen imo. Fed wont stop printing money until the election, minimum. And if Trump wins again noway theyre going to stop lol
Ive been bear by fundamentals, TA and logic before and I got burned everytime. Now im perma bull and money wont stop flowing it. To be fair I have 2 shorts up but man.
Fed is literally printing money to buy stocks.
eganon69
⋅
@confirmationbias, Understood, and I agree with you but I am not saying we see March lows. I am simply saying that we retrace to 2950 which is a level we were at not too long ago. Also, if you look at how much the Fed is buying this market it has decreased dramatically as S&P has gone up. I do believe the Fed will backstop and prevent any major drop toward prior lows. But I dont believe they will back stop a 250 pt drop to 2950. I am still overall BULLISH but with a belief we will revert to the mean for a "healthy correction". However, i would not be surprised if we overshoot my price target a bit to the downside before the Fed backstop starts buying equities again.
eganon69
⋅
@confirmationbias, like I said TA is not out the window despite the Fed printing. Just trading what I see on the charts.
ProfitHarvest
⋅
"This pattern reverts to the mean of EMA 39 in >90% of cases."
Love the data, nice analysis.
I gotta experiment around with BB.
eganon69
⋅
@ProfitHarvest, Honestly,...this pattern is one of the ONLY times I use BB. But its reliable. Sometimes price continues to move against me but soon it will move in my favor. Its especially useful when there are 5 closes at or outside the BB IN A ROW. I also use it to tell me when to get out of a trade. If I am LONG a trade I will raise and set my SL to take profit at 50% of the most recent Bar that is outside the BB. So if it keeps going parabolic (6th or 7th bar outside BB) then I am still in the trade. Once it breaks below the most recent bar 50% retrace then I am out of the trade for huge profit near the highs.
ProfitHarvest
⋅
@eganon69, My indicator suite is all strong sell right now too:
At this point it feels like any downtrend or evntrend reversal could spark a full on crash.
Bulls are too high on free money.
eganon69
⋅
@ProfitHarvest this morning Futures have retraced more than 50% of the prior green bar. As mentioned above this in another SELL signal to me to at least take profits. We may retest the high again before dropping so it may be several days before this becomes profitable.
This is what is going to happen imo. Fed wont stop printing money until the election, minimum. And if Trump wins again noway theyre going to stop lol
Ive been bear by fundamentals, TA and logic before and I got burned everytime. Now im perma bull and money wont stop flowing it. To be fair I have 2 shorts up but man.
Fed is literally printing money to buy stocks.