SPX is destined to drop hard, back to 2009 lows. I decided to go short, to catch the next Market Crash.
It's the previous Wave 4 of a lesser degree. If you know Elliott Wave as I do, then you are getting ready too.
In my opinion SPX500USD has topped a Wave 5 of a large degree. More info on that in my Full Wave Count for that 150y old chart.
Here's a picture on that SPX500 / US500 Monthly Chart:
Now, what are the main reasons behind my BIG SHORT on US500.F ?
1. The Volatility Index (VIX) is showing a Fractal, the 2007-2009 same/exact sequence.
2. The United States Consumer Confidence Index (USCCI) is telling me that Consumers are entering the Fear Period.
3. The Federal Reserve Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS / FRED) has broken out of an important Downtrend.
4. The US Inflation Rate (USIRYY) is saying that a full-blown war has started.
5. The 10y Treasury Note Yield (TNX) just broke out of a 40y Downtrend.
6. The US 10y Government Bonds (US10 / US10Y / USB10YUSD) finalized a big bearish leg.
7. The Crypto Market Cap (TOTAL) & Bitcoin (BTCUSD) : The Golden King is taking over.
I know what you might be thinking: SPXUSD could actually do one last Bullish move, an overshoot in the last of the last 5th, right? In this case, the Wave Count on ES1! could be one step behind, and the Impulse Extension in the 5th of 5th was left out. Yes, that could be a scenario as well, and I will get burnt.
However, I do not think that's the case, so I am loading my Shorts on SPX500USD !
I could not help but noticing that SPX500 is doing the same Fractal Sequence it did on the previous 2007-2009 Recession.
My Sell Orders & Trading Signals on the SPX Market Crash:
In this case, Elliott Wave with Fibs were on my top list, and then combined with the overall sentiment for the fundamentals, but also doing separate tech. analysis on those.
ferGOD
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Awesome analysis! Thanks.
Our sociometer for the U.S., the S&P 500 index, has declined by 27% since the early year and the structure of the decline points to a high probability that the negative social mood trend is far from over. Don’t hold your breath expecting confidence in the U.S. to recover anytime soon.
Robert Prechter’s socionomic theory is the observation that social mood produces social actions, not the other way around as conventional thinking would believe. Over the decades, much evidence has been produced that positive social actions occur after a period of positive mood and negative actions after a negative mood, using the stock market as the sociometer of mood. Socionomics makes logical sense when one can see the relationship between mood and actions.
As always, we monitor developments on a dynamic basis, but it’s going to be utterly fascinating to see what happens! as manifest by a downtrend in the sociometer of the stock market.
Indeed, what is Elliott Wave and how does the charts and price-action translate? It's easy: the display of human beings buy-sell emotions, as a herd. The positive-negative sentiment amplifies with the FOMO.