We are in a very crucial zone in terms of time and price on Sp500 right now and people who make the right decisions will make money.
But to make the right decisions you must look at the data and filter out all the noise and be patient.
I have presented my case for incoming selloff a few times before and now it's all coming together. I have provided the links to my previous posts below, please go over them to get the full picture.
I am building shorts in 4185 to 4230 Area and there are several reasons for that.
Technical Reasons:
1. On the chart I have a large parallel channel. Currently the price is hovering
near the top edge of the channel. This itself is a reason to look for shorts here.
2. Chart also has an indicator which shows 9 count sell signals as per TD sequential
method. Notice what happened last time when the price was near the top of the channel.
We got two consecutive nine count sell signals and as soon as price hit the top of the
channel multi month sell off began. We have something remarkably similar going on right
now.
3. Last time when we were near the top of the channel, we had bear divs on RSI and Money
flow, we have them now as well.
4. We have harmonics ratios providing heavy resistance from 4214 region and upwards.
5. Another thing to notice is 4300 is 61.8 retracement level of the move from the top, That's
another reason to build shorts here, one should not wait for 4300 to be hit to build short, as
its absolute top and may not get hit due to other factors I mentioned above.
If we begin the selloff in the coming weeks, we are looking at a possible 30% drop from current levels, in the next 3 to 4 months. I have provided these targets and measures based on past price action from top of the channel to the bottom, this of course is not going to be 100% accurate can change based on future market moving events.
We also have below confluences for targets motioned in the chart above: June 14th We have Fed event, and SPX has been moving in the highlighted disjoint channel for a while so if we intersect 14th June with the channel we get the max upside and downside targets.
Fundamental reasons:
1. The Fed's actions to raise interest rates are likely to slow the economy, which will lead to a recession. The Fed has said repeatedly they will continue to raise rates to bring down inflation to the target goal of 2% which is not yet achieved so no rate pauses as institutions and new media like people to believe.
2. Debt Ceiling battle: With no resolution in sight, the uncertainties surrounding this event could be the trigger to start the selloff although I am not discounting the possibility of a manipulative rally to 4300 which is a fantastic opportunity to build shorts.
2.1 If there is no resolution on this topic and US defaults everyone knows what will happen
, so, until that is resolved all the contrarian traders should be extremely cautious.
If you like my content, then please boost, and share this post. I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned. If you would like to learn from my experience then follow me on trading view to get notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming technical analysis and in-depth tutorials on technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to look at any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it.
Keep learning and Happy trading All.
But to make the right decisions you must look at the data and filter out all the noise and be patient.
I have presented my case for incoming selloff a few times before and now it's all coming together. I have provided the links to my previous posts below, please go over them to get the full picture.
I am building shorts in 4185 to 4230 Area and there are several reasons for that.
Technical Reasons:
1. On the chart I have a large parallel channel. Currently the price is hovering
near the top edge of the channel. This itself is a reason to look for shorts here.
2. Chart also has an indicator which shows 9 count sell signals as per TD sequential
method. Notice what happened last time when the price was near the top of the channel.
We got two consecutive nine count sell signals and as soon as price hit the top of the
channel multi month sell off began. We have something remarkably similar going on right
now.
3. Last time when we were near the top of the channel, we had bear divs on RSI and Money
flow, we have them now as well.
4. We have harmonics ratios providing heavy resistance from 4214 region and upwards.
5. Another thing to notice is 4300 is 61.8 retracement level of the move from the top, That's
another reason to build shorts here, one should not wait for 4300 to be hit to build short, as
its absolute top and may not get hit due to other factors I mentioned above.
If we begin the selloff in the coming weeks, we are looking at a possible 30% drop from current levels, in the next 3 to 4 months. I have provided these targets and measures based on past price action from top of the channel to the bottom, this of course is not going to be 100% accurate can change based on future market moving events.
We also have below confluences for targets motioned in the chart above: June 14th We have Fed event, and SPX has been moving in the highlighted disjoint channel for a while so if we intersect 14th June with the channel we get the max upside and downside targets.
Fundamental reasons:
1. The Fed's actions to raise interest rates are likely to slow the economy, which will lead to a recession. The Fed has said repeatedly they will continue to raise rates to bring down inflation to the target goal of 2% which is not yet achieved so no rate pauses as institutions and new media like people to believe.
2. Debt Ceiling battle: With no resolution in sight, the uncertainties surrounding this event could be the trigger to start the selloff although I am not discounting the possibility of a manipulative rally to 4300 which is a fantastic opportunity to build shorts.
2.1 If there is no resolution on this topic and US defaults everyone knows what will happen
, so, until that is resolved all the contrarian traders should be extremely cautious.
If you like my content, then please boost, and share this post. I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned. If you would like to learn from my experience then follow me on trading view to get notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming technical analysis and in-depth tutorials on technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to look at any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it.
Keep learning and Happy trading All.
