Thinking we may still have one or possibly two minor waves in the tank left for this initial wave A , which will create an RSI divergence (in lower time frames) and initiate the B wave lower ahead of the chairman speech and rate hike. Thinking a capitulation crash before election is unlikely. Politically the FED will try to take the high road and moderate their hawkishness, ... so as to be seen as NOT influencing the election. This less hawkish rhetoric, plus a possible republican take over of the house will initiate a slow climbing C-wave up to around the 4,000-ish zone, before the market decisively turns lower. This is a (X_Y_Z) story which might make sense and might not BUT it looks about right. It will also frustrate those looking for quick money both short and long, and will not make sense to anyone , BUT just when it looks like the market has stabilized on top of the 4,000 the un-televised crash will occur ultimately to around the 3,000-ish level. Of course the market may hit the 4,000 on this first wave A, but at this mornings high I have started winding down and taking profit on a few longs but as always will leave some positions running wide and allow them to hit the top, Also will moderately be transitioning/ accumulating to a few small short positions. But that's me and not advise for anyone.
Hi....you expecting/anticipating a down ward move from A (where we are currently) to B (+/- 3700) today/soon???? Thanks
oliverrathbun
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What to make of the wave down off the August high.... There are clearly 5 waves there. That suggests either a terminus of sorts.... or an initiation of a larger impulsive move in that direction. I would expect a three wave move down in the Aug - Oct wave for it to fit in the proposed WXY labeling. Just a thought.
I do think this entire pattern off the NOVEMBER 22 2021 high (that Dec-Jan top is clearly a three wave corrective) is a series of three wave correctives with the exception being the Aug-Oct wave. Too soon to know what to make of that. Fundamentals don't support a terminus at this point.
wolffarchitecture
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@oliverrathbun, Thanks for your generous comment , lots of food for thought
oliverrathbun
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@wolffarchitecture, I think we recently completed a leading diagonal (I labeled it WXYXZ to reconcile that Nov-Dec '21 top) I suppose you could count it as 12345 off the top just as well. We should now get a three wave ABC up that should be pretty significant in time and price before the big fall we've been anticipating. Something like this....
wolffarchitecture
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@oliverrathbun, Well the Dow Jones (us30) seems to agree with you, I just try one step at a time, lets see us find support
oliverrathbun
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@wolffarchitecture, Agreed...we need support to build a model. There is an Armageddon model that could come into play as early as today. I hope we don't see that kick in.
Laurent10
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Can't see this coming down to +/-3600 again.....certainly NOT before mid-terms and then there is the USUAL/STANDARD Santa rally (which seems like it has already started) which in my experience almost ALWAYS goes up NO MATTER WHAT......markets also look very strong = even with the bad numbers and data out it can't fall/drop. Thanks for sharing cheers
YouCannotBeSerious
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Looks right to me. All the big cap tech stocks have disappointed and It’s hard to see Amazon turning that around. Feels like down to the Fed and then they will pump it.
Thanks