Cincinnatuus

SPX Look Ahead for week starting 1/19/20

OANDA:SPX500USD   S&P 500 Index
The S&P 500 is in a long-term Bull Market with price trading above the 50 and 200 and 800 week emas. The 50 week ema is up trending with the market putting in a another long green candle last week to trade through the upper Bollinger band . Price would have to drop all the way down to close below 3176 before we would consider the market to be correcting, and the median price on the weekly is all the way down at 3150, showing just how over-extended this market is. Alarm bells should be going off in your head. When price trades through the upper Bollinger band like this, it typically then reverses to trade through the lower Bollinger Band , which is down at 2860…

The Market is in a Long-Term Bull Market on the daily, with the 50 ema above the 200 ema and 800 ema . The 50 week ema is up trending with the market putting in a series of green candles last week to trade through the upper Bollinger band . Price would have to drop all the way down to close below 3276 before we would consider the market to be correcting, and the median price for the daily is all the way down at 3270, showing just how over-extended this market is. Alarm bells should be going off in your head. When price trades through the upper Bollinger band like this, it typically then reverses to trade through the lower Bollinger Band , which is down at 3180…

The Market is in a Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price above the 50 ema , which is above the 200 ema and 800 ema . The 50 ema is up trending with the market putting in a series of green candles over the last several days, with a pretty steep uptrend line. Friday’s trade started to show some spinning tops and a doji , which would caution that this recent melt-up could be coming to an end.

This past week the S&P 500 closed over 3300. Everybody and their brother is claiming the market is coming up against Fibonacci resistance here. I even see a potential Fibonacci 161.8% level at 3355. We could see a correction here, but the Bulls should get the benefit of the doubt with all the REPO money sloshing around. Before there is a correction, the trend line would first have to break, and then the market would start rolling over, and eventually there would be a close below the 13 ema… The chart this week reflects a market that is starting to roll over. The US markets are closed Monday for Martin Luther King Day. I dare say, my Spidey Sense is tingling…

This is my SPX 500 look ahead for my own trading purposes. FUTURES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
Trade closed: target reached: This worked pretty much as expected with an added mid week reversal on Thursday. The Thursday price action was kind of bizarre, like there is a PPT or ESF actually meddling with the markets. The news catalyst that caused the drop in price was the Chinese Corona Virus.

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