SPX500USD (SPX Futures) made top of Bear Market Rally Today
The slight new high in the
SPX
and
SPX500USD
necessitates a slight recounting of the Elliot waves to account for the clear 5 wave drop from June 8th high to June 15th low while also accounting for the slight new high today.
Bottom line no matter how you slice and dice it the crash from Feb highs to March lows was a clearly impulsive 5 wave drop and no matter how you try to twist your eyes and slice and dice it the rally from the March lows can in no way be counted as impulsive nor force a 5-wave count into it.
Take away all counts and labels and indicators and look from a distance at the pure price bars since the March lows and it clearly has a corrective look to it especially as compared to what happened from the Feb highs to the March lows.
The B wave of this March lows has formed a "running flat" with the June 8th to the June 15th 5 wave drop having been the 5-wave c of this running flat B.
Since June 15th we have been in the final ending diagonal wave C of this B wave Bear Market Rally and with the slight overshoot today and rapid rejection in a convincing impulsive drop late today - meaning the Bear Market Rally - per this count - is over.
Wave C to March lows thus began today not on June 8th.
June 8th was indeed the end of the Bear Market rally in the Dow and the Russel 2000 and those indices have a slightly different wave count with wave 2 of C to March lows having ended today.
The few big cap tech names in the S&P have been distorting the S&P.
CBOE "Total Put-to-Call Ratio" made a lower low on June 8th as compared to the Feb highs which meant bullishness was even more extreme even though June 8th was a lower high than Feb.
And now with the slightly higher high today, the CBOE "Total Put-to-Call Ratio" didn't make it to a new lower low today even with the higher high which makes the rally today highly suspect and likely a top.
Take a look at the VIX today as S&P was making higher highs...the VIX kept rising which was a red flag that a violent reversal was coming as the rally since Friday has not been confirmed by the options market.
The VXN made a far more dramatic bearish divergence with the NASDAQ100 as the latter was making higher highs today the VXN blasted higher aggressively.
Even though the drop has been delayed in coming it seems to finally be at hand.
The bottom line: trend over next few weeks and maybe months will be to the downside.
To be bullish now and to position yourself bullishly by "buying dips" is playing with fire.
Proceed with caution.
Tomorrow earnings season begins in earnest.
Let's see if the VIX and VXN saw this coming and led their respective indices (S&P and Nasdaq).
Cheers !
Cyrus
SPX
and
SPX500USD
necessitates a slight recounting of the Elliot waves to account for the clear 5 wave drop from June 8th high to June 15th low while also accounting for the slight new high today. Bottom line no matter how you slice and dice it the crash from Feb highs to March lows was a clearly impulsive 5 wave drop and no matter how you try to twist your eyes and slice and dice it the rally from the March lows can in no way be counted as impulsive nor force a 5-wave count into it.
Take away all counts and labels and indicators and look from a distance at the pure price bars since the March lows and it clearly has a corrective look to it especially as compared to what happened from the Feb highs to the March lows.
The B wave of this March lows has formed a "running flat" with the June 8th to the June 15th 5 wave drop having been the 5-wave c of this running flat B.
Since June 15th we have been in the final ending diagonal wave C of this B wave Bear Market Rally and with the slight overshoot today and rapid rejection in a convincing impulsive drop late today - meaning the Bear Market Rally - per this count - is over.
Wave C to March lows thus began today not on June 8th.
June 8th was indeed the end of the Bear Market rally in the Dow and the Russel 2000 and those indices have a slightly different wave count with wave 2 of C to March lows having ended today.
The few big cap tech names in the S&P have been distorting the S&P.
CBOE "Total Put-to-Call Ratio" made a lower low on June 8th as compared to the Feb highs which meant bullishness was even more extreme even though June 8th was a lower high than Feb.
And now with the slightly higher high today, the CBOE "Total Put-to-Call Ratio" didn't make it to a new lower low today even with the higher high which makes the rally today highly suspect and likely a top.
Take a look at the VIX today as S&P was making higher highs...the VIX kept rising which was a red flag that a violent reversal was coming as the rally since Friday has not been confirmed by the options market.
The VXN made a far more dramatic bearish divergence with the NASDAQ100 as the latter was making higher highs today the VXN blasted higher aggressively.
Even though the drop has been delayed in coming it seems to finally be at hand.
The bottom line: trend over next few weeks and maybe months will be to the downside.
To be bullish now and to position yourself bullishly by "buying dips" is playing with fire.
Proceed with caution.
Tomorrow earnings season begins in earnest.
Let's see if the VIX and VXN saw this coming and led their respective indices (S&P and Nasdaq).
Cheers !
Cyrus
