This_Guhy

I suspect SPX will end up like BTC

Short
FOREXCOM:SPXUSD   US SP 500 CFD
And I just need some indicator confirmation before pulling the trigger on some puts.

I don't want to crow too loudly, but lots of crypto analysts on Tradingview and/or YouTube have been posting temperamental TA when they wake up, see a candle, and feel compelled to post an update to their TA. Whipped around all over the place as BTC zig and zagged. Many did not zoom out and have forgotten how to look for bull traps. And a lot of these guys are good, I have seem then call bull traps before. Some of them even saw the bearishness but hand waved it away because "we are in a bull market" and a couple of them got liquidated due to stops being too loose. And I stood on my BTC short call, like I am standing on the over-all bearishness of the S&P and Nasdaq and everything else for the next while.

BTC on the right had a perfectly predictable bull trap due to wedge support support flipping as resistance and hidden bearish divergence on the histogram, and all the other stuff I went into on my linked ideas

Likewise a bull trap on SPXUSD can be very predictable. I have SPXUSD up because it has more price action than SPX or SPY . There are some dissimilarities based on percent gains and slope of the resistance and somewhat concerning, it doesn't look as "wedge-ie" as BTCUSD due to the whitespace. What is similar:

  • Rising wedge
  • broke down
  • Very similar resistance zone (in blue)


    I will be watching for price action to go to the blue resistance zone and the wedge . I expect price action to thrash around there for a while and then dump. The most ideal thing I could see is there to be hidden bearish divergence from the peak that is about to form to the SPX all time high, and then! classic bearish divergence within the peak, such as a second retest of the wedge after a small dip. The media will be near schizophrenic trying to come up with news stories and will be contradicting themselves all over the place. But I am not going to be caught flat footed by some tweet by Elon or some bungling statement from the "President."

    sidenote
    I see a potential descending triangle on BTCUSD ... It isn't the main point of the post but still, it means that BTC can bounce and meander around resistance for a couple of weeks even, alts can resume going crazy, and then the rug gets proper pulled. I did a quick skim of some of the BTCUSD ideas and could not see anyone eyeballing the same potential pattern, so I thought I would throw it out there.

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