Mayfair_Ventures

The Lazy Man's Guide To ELLIOTT WAVE

Education
FOREXCOM:SPXUSD   US SP 500 CFD
Elliott Wave Post 2; after writing the first post I have received some questions. So I thought it easier to write a follow-up post here showing some tricks.

To be clear, I am not an Elliottition as a whole, I use it as part of a wider strategy on the monthly and weekly timeframes. But also we have access to an automated Elliott wave tool.

The Elliott wave logic still works today and with a couple of little tricks, you will be able to use to help forecast potential target zones. Elliott can be very subjective and the saying goes "if you ask 10 Elliott wave traders where to plot the waves, you will get 9 different answers" So just like everything else, you need to use it wisely and not rely solely on it.

Again to reiterate - this is not a full-out lesson, there's more to learn on the topic. But these little tips will help you along the way, even to get into the overall concept a little quicker.

Step 1 - if you have this in your mind, you will be able to start the process for an overall measure.

Major rule

Wave 2;
If you can identify a wave 2 but it is less than 50% of wave 1 - be careful as it could create a double bottom (in an uptrend) and dip a little lower before moving up.

with 1 & 2 identified you can start working on estimations for 3.

Knowing wave 3 is usually 1.618 or 2.618 - will give you a good idea of where price is heading. Again you could use things like Stochastic or RSI to assist the directional bias when you feel you have identified the 2.

Let's go all out - let's say we have the perfect setup...
We can also say that a lot of the time, wave 4 is around 38.2% of wave 3 and often no greater than 50% (whereas, wave 2 is often more than 50%)


Then lastly, if we know a potential target for 3 (maybe draw 2 target levels to test) we can use that with 2 levels for the 4 move 382 and 50 as a rule of thumb. You can see what works best for the instrument you are trading. How they play out with backtesting and so on.

It would be great to get some additional comments from traders who use Elliott every day, even from new traders only now getting into Elliott waves . Any additional tips or trips from the pro's for the newer traders?

If you are new to Elliott waves - see the related post below for the basic concept.


Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
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Comments

Thank you.
With the right buying and taking profit strategy ELLIOTT can and is profitable.
+5 Reply
Mayfair_Ventures wolffarchitecture
@wolffarchitecture, Yes exactly, don't rely on it solely but it's a great tool to have in the arsenal.
+2 Reply
Nice explanation,but mine is brief

+4 Reply
a video would have been better ☹️☹️
+3 Reply
Completely off subject but how are periods of volatility predicted.. hope you find respect in the question
+3 Reply
@Gambling, Hi, no problem with the question. It's a tricky one to answer as there are several factors that make up the foundation of "Volatility" but in short, the basic principle is Supply/Demand. Then depending on the market, Gold for example will be completely different to say EURJPY. So when it comes to predicting it you would need to look at the fundamentals of the instrument, you would take into consideration some technical analysis that shows the growth or decline in momentum - this could be volume-based, footprint/delta. You have option data, sentiment and COT info available. But overall it's a hard one to predict volatility with any kind of accuracy. Most indicators are lagging - but some such as option data & orderflow can show future orders pending etc. Which would at least help spot potential "up-coming" potential. But like I said, it's so deep and complex, there's no one thing, if there was we would all be using it. 🔮
+4 Reply
Gambling Mayfair_Ventures
@Mayfair_Ventures, If I were a lazy man I might ask if there were any scripted volatility indicators you might recommend geared toward the crypto market..
+1 Reply
@Gambling, I am not aware of any if I am honest or not ones I could recommend. A lot of the indicators are lagging so you will see volatility on bigger bars. If it's in general - things like the Global Hazard Index maybe. But don't think I have seen that on Tradinview
+1 Reply
Gambling Mayfair_Ventures
@Mayfair_Ventures, I am impressed, very quick reply and very useful information. Thank you greatly!
(my initial reply that didn't send)
+1 Reply