SPX back in the ascending channel here.
This channel is now very well respected and there are many touches.
Price fell out to the downside and there has since been what I think is a fast short covering automatic rally to bring price back into the channel.
Ascending channels are bearish and that has been the case already in this downtrend so I expect a collapse again at some point.
And as I said before I think the increasing downside momentum from 200DMA rejection is not going to be denied finding a lower low before a significant bounce.
Considering the bounce came at the log 1.618 of the entire down move I think the ascending channel should at least reach a significant phi related Fibonacci retracement - specifically 0.382, the additive inverse. 0.236 the square root inverse should be too weak.
For that reason I think this ascending channel will get to at least 4272 and also 4281 is 0.5 from the thrust candle. And I'll be looking for collapse specifically in that area.
My guess is it will not much much higher than that because this is a very strong trend and it has not achieved lower low yet to form a zig zag C/Y from ATH.
0.382 is the phi number of continuation. So we'll see.
Not advice.
This channel is now very well respected and there are many touches.
Price fell out to the downside and there has since been what I think is a fast short covering automatic rally to bring price back into the channel.
Ascending channels are bearish and that has been the case already in this downtrend so I expect a collapse again at some point.
And as I said before I think the increasing downside momentum from 200DMA rejection is not going to be denied finding a lower low before a significant bounce.
Considering the bounce came at the log 1.618 of the entire down move I think the ascending channel should at least reach a significant phi related Fibonacci retracement - specifically 0.382, the additive inverse. 0.236 the square root inverse should be too weak.
For that reason I think this ascending channel will get to at least 4272 and also 4281 is 0.5 from the thrust candle. And I'll be looking for collapse specifically in that area.
My guess is it will not much much higher than that because this is a very strong trend and it has not achieved lower low yet to form a zig zag C/Y from ATH.
0.382 is the phi number of continuation. So we'll see.
Not advice.
Comment:
Finding some resistance at 0.236 with wicks showing selling pressure. Although I said 0.236 would be too weak, it could be the reversal point and I'll be watching to see if it falls out that channel. If it did reverse here that would show the correction to be extremely weak and expect a big selling climax to follow. That said I think 0.382 is still more likely. Expecting some amount of shenanigans at market open.
Comment:
Also FED announcement may cause some whipsaw.
Comment:
After an enormous upward breakout from ascending channel it could be a triple top here.
Price surged through the fib area i mentioned and if it now collapses back down it can form a shakeout reversal pattern through the fibs and then it gets very interesting for the bear case.
Price surged through the fib area i mentioned and if it now collapses back down it can form a shakeout reversal pattern through the fibs and then it gets very interesting for the bear case.
Comment:
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