S&P500 got rejected on the 4H MA50! More pain ahead?

The index is trading within a Channel Down on the 4H chart and it just got rejected on the most important Resistance test it had: the 4H MA50 (blue line). Even though the 4H MA100 (green line) is in its way as Support, this rejection has the potential to end lower within the Channel and close to the 4H MA200 (orange line) just below 3400.

As you see S&P though has been consolidating within the 4H MA50 and MA200 levels the whole week, and this price action is similar to when it was consolidating again within those two levels (but this time with the MA50 as Support and MA200 as Resistance) in late September/ early October. The RSI action is identical.

Technical risk-management theory indicates that we should engage only if this consolidation range breaks, i.e. either below the MA200 towards 3340 or above the MA50 towards 3550. See how the Fibonacci levels are perfectly aligned.

What do you think? Is there more pain to come?

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Ty for idea price at higher low and RSI in mid-range, can go either way here, if optimism Monday will break MA50 and move up IMO; if not, test Thurs lows; ty for post!
+1 Reply
TradingShot DaddySawbucks
@DaddySawbucks, Agreed! Thus we should trade only after a break out occurs.
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