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zasmal
Apr 24, 2019 12:59 PM

Possible repeat of the past (Adjusted SPX for USD stregnth) 

SPY*DXYArca

Description

Maybe a reapeat of '97 to '00 up to the dot com bubble. Would line up with cyclical bull market
Comments
Teklologist
I think you’ve made the same mistake I previously made, unless you can explain it. It should be SPX/DXY. Think of both SPX and DXY in units of 1 asset per dollar amount, or unit/$. Therefore SPX/DXY yields the ratio of SPX value to DXY value.

SPX * DXY yields a number in units per square dollar and might be meaningless. I’ve wondered whether it could be used to exaggerate patterns and trends, but remain uncertain.

Check out US10Y*SPX/DXY below. My thought is it might represent true dollar value of SPX after accounting for dollar strength (/DXY) and interest (*US10Y). What’s odd is it yields an almost cyclical chart whereby SPX recedes after reaching a certain value. Rather gloomy given it indicates an impending SPX recession/depression.
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