i find it highly unlikely. this scenario would play out if you have a greek default or something similar. but i doubt that will be happening soon. i actually consider it more likely that the market nears the highs of 2007. after a short-term pullback, im expecting the market to have a third leg up. and then you will likely be having some major event (i.e. some country European country defaulting) and you would see the SPY drop from 150 to 100.
i posted this some weeks ago: