Is the FISCAL CLIFF coming? So far Mr.Chart does not see one. Price has not even gone below the monthly 8MA. We have a normal correction in progress in weekly and daily charts, but the monthly is still in a well defined up trend. Follow the trend not the so called FISCAL EXPERTS
Comments
sf_photo51
⋅
Not a problem. But since we're trading ideas on the forum, I just checked my charts from the crash of '08, '11, Lehman, etc....They all look glorious with clear resistance levels, money pouring in. But if you were trying then to get out when things collapsed, it was "too late" if you didn't have a hedge in-place, trailing stops, whatever....For now, I stand by the currency apporach (but not trying to get into a refuting discussion, each of us has a valid point -- only trying to clarify, and then let each makes his/her own decision): more dollars in the system results in higher values to equities (not nec. gold, though); less dollars in the system results in lower values. Sentiment follows usually after something happens: QE1-3 led to huge upturns, of course, but it started with the # of dollars available, then people felt good. Same withe the Euro. But algos & supercomputers don't have sentiments avail to them. Just hard facts, plus headfakes for the other algos :)
sf_photo51
⋅
A couple more concerns, just from today (next 6 weeks oughta be fun). 1)Boehner re-elected Speaker of the House (who would have thought?) Attached to that though is no more 1-on-1's with Obama. 2)Geithner steps down 1-mo before the debt ceiling talks are to be finalized. Good luck with that one! 3)Reid wants 2trillion in add'tl debt ceiling limit....Wait, my non-Harvard math ways we'll need to generate 160b to 200b per month in bond revenue then, and the world's only buying 40B right now. Hmmm 4)Feds are starting to rethink QE, to terminate in or by the end of 2013 (June's the bet here, if the US is still intact y then). Euro now can't hold 1.308 or so (at least there's the yen, well, until 87.8(5) or so). Charts are great, but eventually, sentiment rules this Market. Once all the money's locked up in it, beware below -- today was a small hint of what I truly believe lies ahead. Happy New Year!
nmike
⋅
SENTIMENT is included in PRICE ACTION........specifically in the 500+ years old Japanese candle sticks.....
sf_photo51
⋅
Yes, JR... I'm w/you on that, but hedging as I go just in case someone spooks something. Interesting day today: in spite of all the gains, AAPL never made it back to its early high; the Euro can't even hold 1.32 after hitting 1.33; oil still lets go of its primary gains; and until the big-$ came to play at the end, people were happy to take profits off the table, even on the weekly expirations. Beware currency games.
On a different note, someone help me please with how I can post a screenshot or other image that's not a chart generated here (or is that possible?)
And for a reality check, read the real shannigans about the fiscal cliff backroom "politics" on Politico.com. Think I trust the "big deal" up ahead ? No way ! :)
sf_photo51
⋅
oops -- should read "The last mini-cliff deal funds 600b", but all else stays the same.
sf_photo51
⋅
Just don't bet on it going into Feb/March budget ceiling talks. The US has 2trillion unfunded to meet this year (1trillion deficit just for the '13 budget, plus a 700b trade deficit in '13, plus $290 owed in interest to bondholders for the year, and on top of that, the US buys a lot of its own debt AND covers now 85b per MONTH in MBSecurities gone sour (hmmm...that's 1.02 trillion in 1 year). The last mini-cliff deal funds $600 or so over 10 years(!) = 60billion in '13 towards the 2trillion is nothing. I'd enjoy the ride while it's there, but hedge like crazy 2 months ahead.
QuantitativeExhaustion
⋅
I agree
nmike
⋅
...enjoy I will.....it's all in the PRICE ACTION... fundamentals & CLIFFS....