The S&P500 bounced half-way back from the range-expansion down day it had on Friday and then backed away from that advance.
The setup for this trade is for a downtrend to be in effect, which it is. Next is to look for a rally to the mid-point of a range-expansion down day, which happened today.
The target is the low on Friday and the stop is the close on Thursday. Risk = Reward at 208.78 entry level.
Probability of a WIN is > 65%.
Cheers.
Tim
Comments
Crinklebine
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How do you come up with the probability of > 65% ? Thanks, as always.
timwest
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The 65% number is from my own calculations that I have done since creating this methodology.
Crinklebine
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Thanks, the timing methodologies are the most interesting to me because timing is the trickiest ans most important part. Its great that you are sharing some of your long time research so we can study it.
rosecasanova
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Nice call on this reversal, Tim.
ChartArt
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This potential downtrend was very easy to spot on the monthly and weekly charts and a day after my forecast it started to go down more:
Clearly defined risk and potential reward before hand, in a very objective way.
In my experience this methodology has proved to be extremely succesful.