Ape

Spy: Potential Breakout Signal

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500
Hello fellow traders. I am sharing a possible breakout signal in the form of a symmetrical triangle pattern . While we did see a close above the upper trend line to confirm this breakout signal, these do have a fairly high throwback rate. Playing devil's advocate, the market can make a double top at the 198 level, or reverse at the 200 resistance. To confirm this breakout I would like to see the traditional signs of a strong trending market of higher highs and higher lows. Also look for previous resistant to become support.

Key Levels for this pattern:

Resistance:
198
200

Support:
196.5
195
if it trades back up above 200 - its a true breakout... on my monitor it will at least mean the end of downside risk

snapshot
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Volume is weak here.... pretty low participation rate in this breakout.
High probability that its a throwback.
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Same triangle.... slightly different perspective.
snapshot


The triangle in this area most commonly found as a "B" wave preceding the final C in a corrective move. In my chart, price has not breached resistance therefore for me, no breakout. However price could still move higher n then correct lower and both are upper trend lines are a wee bit off. :)
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Ape jsimko_cgc
Hey thanks for sharing, while I'm with you in that this is a corrective move up, I believe the labeling can be tweaked in your chart where the "a" starts at the bottom (on the 26). That would make the pattern complete on the 8th and thus now taking off in a potential "c" wave to the UP side.
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Ape Ape
I should have included that labeling on my chart. Whoops :)
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