Due to the bearish divergences on all timeframes tracking back all the way to Jan if you look back far enough i feel like this was a long time coming. But due to the state of play elsewhere in the world we were melting upwards. There needed to be a catalyst either way for the market to definitively pick a direction, i fear we may have found it, and it says down.
Now i fully expect that since i’m making this post therefor jinxing myself and mr. market will hear me and do the opposite. But fuck it.
I called the hourly H&S reversal a couple days ago and here are my price targets:
Best possible scenarios for the bulls:
we stop right about here on the short term trend line/50 period moving average on the daily and reverse and back to our regular scheduled programing. That would be around a 3% decline from the highs of this week.
Most likely/neutral scenario:
we mill around a bit at this price level ultimately breaking the short term trend line/relative support around $291.50 - $290.50 and then ultimately my price target would be somewhere around the low of the May dip @ $275ish give or take. But keep in mind that it looks like that would be creating the head of a much larger H&S pattern if we bounce back up from there. The H&S pattern would be negated if we reach back up to the $301 price level, and if that happens my price target is around $304. If this plays out it’s be a 8-9% decline from the highs.
Best case for the bears scenario:
we break through the major support at $275ish and then my next price target would be around the $250 price range. Keep in mind this is still a relatively bullish analysis as some chartists are calling for a ~30% drop. I’m not sold on this being it though. If we do hit that long term trend line at around $250 and it holds expect us to rip to new highs by EOY. If it breaks, buy gold, run for cover and try not to check your portfolio. If this plays out and trend line holds it’d be about a 15% decline from the highs.
As i got rekt on AMZN and AMD earnings i’m really just holding onto the seat of my pants with a couple OTM puts and a fat silver play but these are my price targets.
Now i fully expect that since i’m making this post therefor jinxing myself and mr. market will hear me and do the opposite. But fuck it.
I called the hourly H&S reversal a couple days ago and here are my price targets:
Best possible scenarios for the bulls:
we stop right about here on the short term trend line/50 period moving average on the daily and reverse and back to our regular scheduled programing. That would be around a 3% decline from the highs of this week.
Most likely/neutral scenario:
we mill around a bit at this price level ultimately breaking the short term trend line/relative support around $291.50 - $290.50 and then ultimately my price target would be somewhere around the low of the May dip @ $275ish give or take. But keep in mind that it looks like that would be creating the head of a much larger H&S pattern if we bounce back up from there. The H&S pattern would be negated if we reach back up to the $301 price level, and if that happens my price target is around $304. If this plays out it’s be a 8-9% decline from the highs.
Best case for the bears scenario:
we break through the major support at $275ish and then my next price target would be around the $250 price range. Keep in mind this is still a relatively bullish analysis as some chartists are calling for a ~30% drop. I’m not sold on this being it though. If we do hit that long term trend line at around $250 and it holds expect us to rip to new highs by EOY. If it breaks, buy gold, run for cover and try not to check your portfolio. If this plays out and trend line holds it’d be about a 15% decline from the highs.
As i got rekt on AMZN and AMD earnings i’m really just holding onto the seat of my pants with a couple OTM puts and a fat silver play but these are my price targets.
Trade active:
All eyes on you $275.
I'm expecting a bounce but with the ferocity of the selling today we may not get that till the $275 level, if it holds. Beware of Dead Cats and Bull Traps.
I'm expecting a bounce but with the ferocity of the selling today we may not get that till the $275 level, if it holds. Beware of Dead Cats and Bull Traps.