The question is not whether the macroeconomic situation has collapsed (there are no changes in this sense), but whether the events that have already happened, plus those that may happen in the next six months, are fully reflected in the price? For example, does the gas price that has risen three times in recent months fully express only the probability (I estimate it at 50%) that there will be serious interruptions in its (gas) supplies to Europe? I think it reflects with a large margin. And it seems that I'm not the only one who thinks so. Especially if you look at the prices that have fallen by a third in recent days. And, if we are already talking about a third, then it is worth paying attention to the fact that right now, the American stock index is at the same level as it was about 2 years ago, canceling the rise of 33%. So, I don't think there are still "black swans" that are not included in the price. It is clear that the interest rate will rise and, accordingly, inflation will be curbed. The war in Ukraine will continue - this is also understandable. That's why we see a bullish wedge forming. In addition, the Head-Shoulders reversal pattern has already been implemented (two big three). And, here's another thing I would pay attention to: The MACD indicator shows much lower values than at the peak of the covid epidemic, when the entire world economy simply froze and people did not leave home. So is the current situation much worse than that? My forecast: the continuation of movement inside the narrowing trend lines, accompanied by a low probability that new lows will be set. The opening of longs only after the breakdown of the milestone border (weak green line).