But I'm posting to highlight a point. Short term, fundamentals and headlines don't matter, especially to us small time traders without teams of people working together. But sometimes, they tip us off on something we've missed. Sometimes, the difference between follow through in a pattern and a failure is a different pattern in a different chart that we usually don't pay attention to. And while the whole inflation argument will take months or years to settle into the right price with jerky movements here and there, the dynamics of that trade do highlight a past precedent. There is no trading advice here. There is no suggested strategy. There is just a headsup to 2 small points.
1. When we had QE after the 2008 financial crisis, everything was leading up to what we deemed a taper tantrum. We had many big profit opportunities leading up to it and even when we did, the markets still threw a fit bigger than we'd thought. But before we even got there, but as we got close, (and this was a fed that was more apt to move fluidly, always one or two FOMC announcements from a policy change) we did see emerging markets get slammed first as expectations of higher treasury rates sent their borrowing costs through the roof and their currencies plunging to pay for their stimulus. They were at a different point in their recovery but they were disproportionately punished (India, Turkey, Russia) and some of the excess money that flowed to them started coming back here (China). Changes happened that surprised everyone and shocked the global economy (Switzerland, Germany, England) and that in turn gave us problems way before we actually made any policy changes. That and plus, the inflationary period that Fed is pushing for, apparently we haven't seen in reality since the 1980s.
2. This time its slightly different. We are all at a different place in the recovery due to the medical nature of the economic problem. And the long term goal is not to prop up the stock market, though the short term goal is to promote spending, risk taking, and investing vs saving.
1. When we had QE after the 2008 financial crisis, everything was leading up to what we deemed a taper tantrum. We had many big profit opportunities leading up to it and even when we did, the markets still threw a fit bigger than we'd thought. But before we even got there, but as we got close, (and this was a fed that was more apt to move fluidly, always one or two FOMC announcements from a policy change) we did see emerging markets get slammed first as expectations of higher treasury rates sent their borrowing costs through the roof and their currencies plunging to pay for their stimulus. They were at a different point in their recovery but they were disproportionately punished (India, Turkey, Russia) and some of the excess money that flowed to them started coming back here (China). Changes happened that surprised everyone and shocked the global economy (Switzerland, Germany, England) and that in turn gave us problems way before we actually made any policy changes. That and plus, the inflationary period that Fed is pushing for, apparently we haven't seen in reality since the 1980s.
2. This time its slightly different. We are all at a different place in the recovery due to the medical nature of the economic problem. And the long term goal is not to prop up the stock market, though the short term goal is to promote spending, risk taking, and investing vs saving.
I usually try not to tell you what to do -- too crowded there. I'll point out what price points/trends/patterns the pros are looking at and let you interpret what that means for your portfolio.