well there is this thing called calculated luck haha. umm regarding the percentage move, i am not sure. it is hard to say what percentage it will move. today's move had a lot of conviction, so i would expect it to go higher.
You need to define significant support. Significant to push up for another high or a simple retrace up with further downside. I think the question that needs answering is, "Is the support here sufficient to hold off an equity market that is starting to show signs, that it too, now believes the Fed will increase rates by June?" Bonds have believed and doing more so lately, credit markets believe, Once equities really believe, no support within 200 points will be strong. Strong dollar, weak EUR due to €E, resulting in weak foreign earnings, lower forward earnings expectations, increasing cost of capital due to massive corporate borrowings for share buy back programs over the last 6 years. The only thing that can save equities now is strong earning expectations to drive forward PE lower or QE4. Do they look likely? The days of riding a technical wave after wave are coming to an end. As Frodo put it, the days of QE/technicals are coming to and end and the days of fundamentals are upon us.
interesting. i agree about the earnings idea. i really think that is the only thing that can save us. fed is not gonna come out to save us, it can't because the QE is officially ended. But i do believe in technical regardless of where we are. it has worked in the past 100 years, it will continue to work. technical helps us decide what is, instead of what it ought to be. i like fundamentals, but technical helps in minimizing risk. like i said, we don't have to be right. it does not matter if we are right or wrong. the only thing that matters is how much we make when we are right and how much we loss when we are wrong. technical quantifies the risk. and i like that.