SPY - When to Short?

I have a short bias on the SPY             , but need confirmation.

With Feds ending QE in October and the market typically pulls back in Oct / Nov, I think we are looking at a possible down trend soon. However, the last times the market went through the 117 MA, it held its low and then recovered strong pushing new highs. We just went through the 117 MA. If we continue past today's lows, I'll be bearish . If we hold close, I'd be more bullish (but overly cautious until Nov). Tomorrow, I'm expecting a small rally (at most to the top of the down trend).
9 trading days in. There were a couple of opportunities to get in. I rode it down through yesterday. It hit the 1.27 extension and bottom trend line. Expecting a retracement to 190 (or as high as 193) soon before coming back down.
day 1 - still in daily down trend, but at end of day, held the line. still a wait and see.
some one else posted 125ma ,
check out JR ,
he & other have posted a whole bunch of spy charts ,
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