The SPY ETF has traded within a well defined channel since the beginning of 2022.
Within this major down draft, a more acute channel has been in evidence for the past 2 months. (shaded rose)
Looking at this from a harmonic perspective and bearing in mind that this is a 2 hour window, I see evidence that a cypher pattern is developing with may provide a counter rally to the 430 area and the top of the recent channel.
Overlaying a pitchfork (Schiff) with using points 1,2, and 3 we are able to contain most of the price action except the past several weeks but this is contained in a 1.5 outer edge extension (shaded gray) which has jumped back into its the original fork.
Harmonic projections while less accurate, are often useful.
Bottom line: I am looking for a little luck and a counter trend rally to the 430 area.
Two caveats.. we need to take out the two 2 horizontal lines (approx. 404 and 407) fairly soon and my momentum indicator in the lower pane needs to be rising/stable and not falling.
Therefore I am waiting for a breech of the two marked blue horizontal lines as a go long signal.
This is educational not investment advice.
Do your own due diligence while watching the bigger picture and review world events as they evolve around you.
This can be a fast and volatile market taht takes no prisoners.
Good Luck and thanks for reading.
Hopefully you found it this useful.
S.
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I have redrawn the ratios using the correct TV tool.
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Getting closer to cracking the second blue line and I worry about the indicator in the bottom panel rolling over... still in wait mode.
Today has been a beating so far. Does today's action change your outlook at all?
Steve666
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@Decam9, Pretty hard to fight the Fed...I did note that I was concerned that momentum might be slowing in an above update. No position here. Here's an updated chart:
Decam9
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@Steve666, Yeah, I got an alert for your update. When does your harmonic pattern fail? when it trades outside of the green range?
Steve666
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@Decam9, Well this was a pattern projection so less accurate than an actual pattern (as noted) also a countertrend move as directed by the pitchforks direction. So I would say that the current pattern has been busted... at least on this timeframe.
testicular101
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im praying for one more bounce past $420 so I can go all-in with long shorts... we will be seeing $360 soon
Steve666
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@testicular101, well good luck... I'm sure you have the balls for it
Decam9
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Ive been learning elliot wave theory. Not sure how closely related it is to cyphers/harmonics but if I'm reading the waves correctly, we should be in for a bounce. I think this has a fair chance of profit.
Steve666
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@Decam9, Tks for the input and comment. Care to post your EW chart ? Tks
Decam9
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@Steve666, Sure, my waves are still a work in progress so keep that in mind.
Steve666
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@Decam9, if we were correct all the time then we'd be phoning orders in from our yachts. TA in my option is looking at the weight of evidence and formulating a view... rather than having a view and finding a scenario which supports it.