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SPY Monthly Chart

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AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
spy
The SPY monthly chart shows two clear run ups and the resulting retracemet. The first cycle started in 1994 and ran up for 71 months and then retreated 76.4% in less than half the time it took to reach the high..

The second run up ran for 60 months and retraced 100% of the run up in 17 months.

Our current up cycle has been in place for 75 months and has had a nice run up. If we were to start a retracement period of the same proportion as the 1994 cycle, we would have 34 months of a down market and we would see the market retrace 76.4%.

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