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Short

SPY Monthly Chart

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
spy
234 0 3
spy
The SPY             monthly chart shows two clear run ups and the resulting retracemet. The first cycle started in 1994 and ran up for 71 months and then retreated 76.4% in less than half the time it took to reach the high..

The second run up ran for 60 months and retraced 100% of the run up in 17 months.

Our current up cycle has been in place for 75 months and has had a nice run up. If we were to start a retracement period of the same proportion as the 1994 cycle, we would have 34 months of a down market and we would see the market retrace 76.4%.
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