Daily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook - 09 JUL

Jul 9

Daily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook


Risk Index

Current Market State: Short Term Slightly Bullish (downside risks remain) | Long Term Bullish

The Risk Index currently suggests that the market has shifted back into a short to medium term risk on environment. However, geopolitical risks continue to present downside uncertainty, meaning volatility can return quickly if negative headlines emerge. Despite that, the longer term outlook remains firmly bullish.

This proprietary oscillator, developed internally at UA CAPITAL, combines multiple macro parameters into a single sentiment framework. The same complex risk analysis process I manually used for years is now automated through this system, allowing us to read market sentiment objectively and without emotion in real time.

As long as the longer term structure remains bullish, we will continue looking for buying opportunities from predefined Key Levels. At the same time, tactical shorts can still be considered from major supply zones whenever price confirms rejection.




Scenarios / Prediction


Long Scenario
As long as price remains above 745, the path of least resistance continues to favor a move toward 750.
Trigger: Retest of 745 followed by a bullish 1 hour candle close back above the level.
Targets: 747.5 → 750 → 752
Invalidation: 1 hour bearish candle close below 744.



Breakout Long Scenario
If price produces a confirmed 1-hour bullish close above 752, a breakout continuation trade can be considered following a successful retest.
Trigger: Retest of 752 followed by a bullish 1-hour candle close above the level.
Targets: 755 → 758.5
Invalidation: 1 hour bearish candle close below 750.



Short Scenario
The 750–752 area represents the primary supply zone. If price reaches this region and produces a strong bearish rejection, short exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Retest of the 750–752 supply zone followed by a strong 1-hour bearish candle close back below the level.
Targets: 747 → 745 → 740
Invalidation: 1 hour bullish candle close above 752.



Notice: Starting a fresh, high frequency track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities on TradingView. Moving forward, all institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week updates will be tracked consistently right here.



This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.

Jul 10

Note

The *July 9* scenarios remain valid for *Friday July 10* as well.

The overall market structure has not changed, so the same trading plan and scenarios continue to apply.

Unless market conditions shift materially, we'll continue following the plan above.

Jul 10

Trade active

The *July 9* scenarios remain valid for *Friday July 10* as well.

The overall market structure has not changed, so the same trading plan and scenarios continue to apply.

Unless market conditions shift materially, we'll continue following the plan above.

Jul 11

Trade closed: target reached

The **Breakout Long Scenario** worked very well on Friday.

We entered the trade after the breakout confirmation and held the position into the end of the trading session. Since we used contracts with approximately **three weeks until expiration**, theta decay was not a significant concern.

In addition, we also went long **ES futures** with the group, which turned out to be another excellent trade.

Overall it was a very successful execution of the plan.