dspark123
Short

Entering BEAR Territory

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
We are entering BEAR Territory. Daily 50 MA crossed 200 MA, so called DEAD CROSS. This could be Correction, but more likely Entering BEAR if falls 20% over 2 months period (by definition). We have to watch more.
Reason is follows:
1. stock is overvalued.
2. Earning growth is stalled.
3. Global economy is entering recession.
4. US manufacturing, GDP is falling down.
5. global trade is falling down.
6. Fed is no longer promising to support market.--no 0% interest rate , no QE             for now.
This could be changed any point of time at Fed meeting, but for now, pointing down.
If stock price is below 200MA, and 50MA, I only short at the high peak. I wait till price goes up to the highest peak.
I do nothing until then. Then, start to short once I noted peak is start to fall down.

Related Ideas

b9991
a year ago
Great analysis, i agree.
Reply
jsimko_cgc
a year ago
stocks are overvalued? I don't think so... look at appl for example 12 times P/E... many stocks have already corrected and while we're pulling back, it's not a bear market until it is. earnings growth is projected to be stalled but the labor market is still improving which indicates the underlying economy continues to fare better. global economy is entering recession... what? a recession is three consecutive quarters of negative growth... not sure what facts you're looking at but they're not reflected in the data.

all of your statements are way too general and more sentiment driven than factual. let's see the data first and the candles before we start stating personal sentiment as fact.

this bull run from Oct. 2011 to recent highs is one large impulse wave. technically it's probably a wave 4 and technically the SPYders could retrace all the way to 173 and still be considered a corrective move. if we fail that area then I'll be more bearish than neutral/bullish but only after the data and the candles confirm.

and in Oct. 2011, the same folks we're saying, "Omg, the sky is falling" result: we rallied for 4 years. more important than any of the rhetoric is for people to manage their risk and keep their stops tight in this volatility... and trade off solid technicals, not rhetoric. cheers.
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out