McGuireTO

SPY bears aren't joking around - S&P500 loses WEEKLY uptrend

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
SPY on the daily timeframe continues to show weakness, closing two cents above the Lower Bollinger Band and dumping most of the day on a significant amount of volume . The bulls made a move to start the day and rejeted below the Middle Bollinger Band . The daily MACD backtested and rejected from its downtrend line and the price continues to progress towards my two convergince trendlines (green and grey) in the mid $285 range. I would not be surprised to see an initial bounce from that area, but we've seen how aggressive the bears can be when they dump so I'm certainly not trying to catch a falling knife here.

The afternoon saw another hourly oversold bounce, not accomplishing much other than cooling off the RSI levels for a potential leg down. Keep in mind the weekly chart is over extended and we haven't had any real weekly consolidation in several months. We could see a pullback to about 280 and it would still be a very healthy weekly consolidation.


Zooming into the hourly chart we see our key short term range is 286.23 support and 290.26 resistance. In order to be confident our temporary low is in we need to see the bulls form a higher low above that support, and move up break the resistance set at the top of this move (288.36 in it's current configuration but without a clear pullback we're not confident that's the level to break). As it stands, anything under 290.26 is just a lower high.

There is still no clear sign of the bulls although we are seeing signs of bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD oscillators. We also have an hourly RSI resistance line the bulls will need to break above in order to get the bounce going. The size of that bounce will help us anticipate if we will see a daily higher low, or continue on to lower lows.

Be aware there is market correlation between the every sector with the S&P500 , and keep in mind that it lost the weekly uptrend today. It's often said that high tides raise all boats; likewise, low tides can beach all ships.

By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
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