I took profits today, SPY is looking bearish to me and I am going to watch it tomorrow. We may gap up to 380 and then fall hard. If we gap down, then EOD may reverse. I wouldn't yet go long, especially over the weekend.
Bearish (high probability) We have almost reached 380, which is higher low on 1h on my chart We have bearish divergence on 1h We have raising wedge, pointing to 380 SPY usually does few lower highs before going higher high. Angled H&S
Bullish (low probability) If it brakes 380, test it, then I'll go long until 394-400
Saying all that, market is really nasty, changing patterns so anything is possible. I just don't like roulette :)
GOOD luck to you all !!!
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if we fall down to 370 and hold , long may still play out. Lets see tomorrow
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Also VIX didn't even blink today
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and so we got squeeze instead of decline. ho figure :)
Thank you for the post. You have just confirmed my vision. I have bought September deep ITM puts because don’t want to be late to the party even though everyone wants a little rally. Lol.
abigreen
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@asetana, Dont take me wrong, I see SPY revisiting COVID crash in the next 12 months, but in short term, we are going to see rally to -400, it will be fast, perhaps after this leg down, it will qiuockly shoot to that level, but it will happen. I dont trade options, too much gamble for me, I fail in swinging, lol, but what works for me is day trades, so Ill stick to it for now.
asetana
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@abigreen, thank you! One more question if it is ok. For day trading, do use weekly or next week expiration date?
abigreen
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@asetana again I stopped trading options. for day trade I use leverage etfs like So I, Sox's, sqqq, tqq at least for now as the moves on features are high. I can move big position in and out gaining a good percentage on daily.
asetana
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@abigreen, I see. Though thank you for your charts anyway.
option2022
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Would you say the same for SPX? Or they are always the same? Thanks
abigreen
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@option2022, SPX is your day version of US500 SPY is poor's man version of US500; compare the charts, they are almost identical.