SPY is presenting a myriad of bearish signals. With the daily being so condensed, you can see it more clearly in the hourly.
1. RSI multiple bearish overbought divergences 2.Just as important as 1, the volume decrease each hour to an increasing price 3.MACD/Oscillator bearish divergences 4. Overall rising wedge 5. Approaching .618 retracement at 293
Now with the Fed shoving in money into the system, it's hard to predict the exact timing of this fall, but opening up a 1/3 to 1/2 position here in puts (minimum 1 month out for safety) or shorts is indicated. I would not be surprised if we get one or two more up days to break out of the wedge and get everyone on board to being bullish, but don't panic, this will come down.
Look for the bottom of the wedge for the first target, and then each horizontal support on the way down before new lows.
If you add in some fib retracements.. that would be another sign of decline. Seems like we are going to test the 61.8% retracement (SPY 290-293).
bishopknight
⋅
fingers crossed
jryda
⋅
i bought puts yesterday, guess i can try to avg down into more contracts they're 5/15 240p
Matewan3291
⋅
@jryda, I agree. If youre willing to buy more, id save some cash for tomorrow in case we get that squeeze. Also that 240 gets me nervous. Im entering 260s
jryda
⋅
@Matewan3291, i just checked they're 245 but yeah they move just the same i just day trade but i opened a put at 275 i wish i saw this wedge earlier, never saw your posts before
elvis0288
⋅
keep hearing this and it continue to go up sadly
Matewan3291
⋅
@elvis0288, Yup, too many people are seeing and saying the same thing. Thats the tell tale sign that were going up a bit more
tntfortunes
⋅
@Matewan3291, I'm still new at this.. so you're saying because this is so obvious to the market, that it will likely not happen until we've capitulated?
Matewan3291
⋅
@tntfortunes, exactly. Just like panic selling at the bottom where it won’t go up until enough have lost hope, tops only happen when too much hope is in the air