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def_init_
May 21, 2020 6:15 PM

S&P 500 (bearish to low 280s) Short

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUSTArca

Description

Look at what happens. Every time we get a cross down on the indicator, we get a 5% pullback in SPY ($283 this time). I think we will see this same pattern repeat within the next few trading days. I'll consider a crossing of the EMA20 (yellow) below the VWAP (white) as a confirmation signal, although it will be delayed.

In addition, crypto market (BTC and ETH) have had somewhat of a correlation in recent months. We are now seeing a clear reversal in the crypto markets which I believe is a leading indicator of the SPY, although the correlation is not very strong.

BEARISH on US equities until we see 280s again within the next week or two.
Target: $283

GOOD LUCK.



Comment

Market appears to be selling off into the close today now, let's see if it continues

Comment

Premarket is looking positive for tomorrow morning (Tuesday). Implied open is positive. This could change overnight, but if SPY continues to climb tomorrow and/or Wednesday, we could be looking at a scenario more like this one.



As usual, no guarantee so use your own best judgement and do what you think is best for you.
Comments
Dinore
Could you please take a look on BTCUSD?
wolfdemon710
Can you please update the above? Curious to see how it looks with this market open
wolfdemon710
I was looking every time it crossed, it sold off the next day. are you expecting a sell off overnight/tomorrow?
def_init_
@wolfdemon710, Yes, it should open lower tomorrow if the idea is correct. We'll have to see how it goes though, no guarantee.
henrik525
Good analysis!
def_init_
@henrik525, thanks
henrik525
@SluggishMoney, what is the indicator you use for the red and green clouds? (SPY)
def_init_
@henrik525, it's called MTF_VWAP, I made it but I haven't published it. Tradingview makes the publication process really strict so it's difficult to publish all of my indicators :/
henrik525
@SluggishMoney, nice job man. How long have you been trading?
def_init_
@henrik525, thanks, but we still have to see how this plays out. I've been trading for a few years now, but just in my spare time. I just like charting technicals and stuff
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