Want to short but wondering if we are headed to Higher highs

I drew this chart last night and then then opening gapped up. I will short if we close the old gap but feel that a lot of people will be shorting the market at this level. At times like this I am cautious. I may create my position at much higher levels with a vertical spread like 217-218 45 days out as usual (depending on premiums). I am just going to look for other opinions on what people think the highest the market will go over the next month and a half. Good luck.

Comment:

The gap at 211.90 closed and we crept up some more so I opened up multiple positions between 216 and 220 selling credit spreads for Aug 12th and 19th. NOW i want to see that massive opening gap get closed. We may go higher but Volume is not good, so in a week or two things will drop back down and I will close out. If we test new highs it will be painful but the premiums seemed to be worth the risk. Overall risking about 70k to make 20k.

Comment:

Ok so I am now that we have gone up a bit I may wait for slight weakness and open several higher placed spreads in the 221 - 222 range. Still going to hold my other positions for another week to see if any lower gaps get filled.

Comment:

Yeah. So when I drew that question mark on my chart I had thought to myself "worst case scenario"....so here we are at over 215 and because we got here so fast I am actually thinking about opening a couple of more positions up around 223 and higher....but the premiums don't seem as rich now. So maybe we will be seeing some down turn soon. Good luck. I am hibernating for now.