CaperAsh
Short

Volume Distribution Daily: further downside potential

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
97 2 1
Will go down to next volume value area (bulge on indicator to left of chart shown as white horizontal line at 179.29).
I like your chart CaperAsh. What else do you see? Will you go long at that level? What do you risk and how do you get in to a trade here?
Reply
Not yet drawn on this Daily Chart is the 184-level bulge. The further down the market goes, the more this level will be the natural price for it to come back to (at least, if not exceed and test old highs). So the further down it goes, the more one can buy.

Of course any strategy depends more upon account size, temperament/risk comfort and so forth. I also posted a longer-term perspective which shows volume support way below current levels. Seasonally, one would expect things to sort of chop around until late August/September at which point you get the big sell-off to Weekly Support levels. So this chart with this comment which shows Daily activity only back to November last year shows more recent action (in this timeframe) and in that more recent context, there is near term support not much further down at which point one would expect a bounce back to the 184 level.

So two ways to play as always:
1. start buying now in anticipation of a bottom at some point and a retracement to above current price if not higher.
2. If the next serious support doesn't hold and it looks like we are going into a weekly timeframe correction, then either one gets stopped out at a loss and waits for next support level and buy signals, or one simply keeps buying more on the way down until at some point the market - even if it as this point bona-fide bearish, corrects back to current or new volume resistance levels.

Again seasonally one would not expect a major correction until Sept-October so my tendency would be to buy into weakness and then - if no new highs are made this July-August, turn bearish and only be a seller (usually on rallies).

Something like that. Every trader has to put about 75% attention on money-management and only 25% on when to enter. No-one can ever tell if the current trend will continue or not. It's best to go with the trend.

On the weekly timeframe, this is still clearly a bull market. Even if a top was just put in, there will probably be a couple more attempts to make higher highs. Even if they fail, it is unlikely this time of year for a huge sell-off. Possible, but unlikely. And IF it happens, then there will be huge bounce up, therefore it makes more sense to be buying on weakness until a secular bear market is evident on both Daily and Weekly timeframe which is not yet the case.
Reply
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Polska
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
Indonesia
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out