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hungry_hippo
Aug 16, 2019 8:22 PM

I SPY Decision on Monday 

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUSTArca

Description

If there's another leg down we should know Monday, since we'll hit the upper trendline on this drop. I'm really not sure which way this is going to break, so I'm all cash again except for UAA puts (because there's no way it justifies 100 PE ratio). When in doubt, short garbage.

If the market goes up on Monday, I expect the $295 gap to close. I still think this is a dead cat bounce, but XRT, small caps, and a bunch of stocks like MMM hit support level yesterday and seem to be bouncing off of it, so the Trump tariff drop might be over as of yesterday.

Also, every central bank is talking rate cuts and stimulus. They intend on printing money like crazy I guess. Watch Powell start talking about QE4 in Sept, lol. For some reason, these central bankers are deathly afraid of a recession, quite frankly I think recessions are just normal business cycles, but whatever.

Comment

Figures the computers would pump futures on a Sunday night, I wouldn't chase this rally though, indices are overbought on the hourly, futures charts are overbought on the 3 hr chart. I would expect a dip even if the market is headed up long term....

Comment

Target hit
Comments
DaddySawbucks
Lookat da Volume FGS it's picayune!
hungry_hippo
@DaddySawbucks, the volume on index ETF is meaningless, usually the volume is high only when the market is tanking. SPX index had normal volume but the volume on futures is lower than it was last week. AH futures volume is low today as well.

I don't typically look at the index ETFs other than "I SPY" makes for a better catchline than "I SPX", and gets me more followers. If you use volume based inidcators like MFI with the ETF instead of the index, you can get false signals.

In your particular case, pay attention to RUT TA, not IWM.
DaddySawbucks
@hungry_hippo, Right on ty!
CryptoBullet
interesting idea
DaddySawbucks
IMO a technical bounce on reversion to mean after dropping near 3 SDs. Daily pattern has been pumpup >gapdown >pumpup > gapdown.

Measured move lower to 272-277 IMO. I was wrong once before though.
hungry_hippo
@DaddySawbucks, yeah, hence I keep saying whipsaw. The moves up have been much larger than I anticipated though.
DaddySawbucks
@hungry_hippo, It approaches the mouth of megaphone.
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