chinawildman

Bulls need this rally to cool off for it to last...

Short
AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Already at the top of the Bollinger Band with fake news as support and divergence seen on both MFI and ROC... Notice how the current rally can fall under either red or purple channel... Regardless, both are steeper than the Jan 2018 melt-up (green arrow) which obviously did not end well. I'm bearish, but I may start to take profits at 260 support on short positions if I see evidence of consolidation in this green triangle and wait instead for confirmation of a break down.

Regardless I think if you're a bull you WANT to see it retest 260 and cool off a bit to gather some momentum for the push past 270 (much like it did the week prior under 260). So far everything from 262+ has looked and smelled like a bull trap to me.

Intermediate/long term I'm bearish simply because I think the only way we keep moving up is if the mega caps both beat revenue AND provide optimistic rev guidance. With stocks like AMZN now trading higher than BEFORE they reported Q3 earnings I feel like expectations are overly optimistic given the ominous reports coming from asia and AAPL, TSMC, etc...

I would also NOT be surprised if China GDP numbers are REALLY bad and the bottom simply fell out next week and trapped bulls are stuck on an island top from friday. The whole pump from 260-267 felt like rumor-driven manipulation at its best. If those levels didn't offer much resistance, they won't offer much as support either. The only real support is at 260 and if that breaks I think we're headed a lot lower.
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