So far SPY is down only 3% from the peak at 473. Throughout the year, the September decline was 6%, while all the previous pullbacks were less than 5%. It is expected the current pullback is not going to be more than 5% or 6%. as the market remains in a strong uptrend, it is hard to bet against it.
Another possibility is since many investors have made huge gains, they may take profits and the market will stay in this range for the next four weeks till January forming some kind or triangle.