Algokid

Doug Kass projection for the SP

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
1813 17 3
THIS IS NOT MY PROJECTION FOR THE MARKET. Doug Kass recently published a chart similar to the one you see. He 's now bearish on the S&P             . so what do you think . refer to link below for original chart

http://www.businessinsider.com/doug-kass-were-doomed-2012-2
Thank you for posting it here. I personally expected this downtrend in the end of 2011.
Reply
UPDATE: Another thing to look at is volume. the cumulative volume so far this year is 102.6 Billion versus 122.6 Billion in the first 34 days of 2011. That is a -16.3% decline. So despite the amazing performance of the S&P so far this year ( 8.44%), volume doesn't offer a strong confirmation.

Don't know if Mr. Kass is right with his projection ,but here are the six risks to the economy that he identified recently:

- the price of oil
- broadening geopolitical risk in the Middle East;
- a slowdown in the emerging markets (especially in China and India);
- the continued reliance on monetary policy (and neglect of pro-growth fiscal policy);
- an unrealistic U.S. budget that is dependent upon assumptions that would embarrass even the tooth fairy.
- the changing political backdrop, which now favors an incumbent presidential win.


Reply
Thank you for the update
Reply
UPDATE: So far seems to be on track, we'll see for how long. in his latest comment , Mr. Kass is overweighted in Consumer Staples ( VDC, XLP)
Reply
Interestingly enough, I saw several interviews with D. Kass this year and last saying he does not believe in this technical analysis "mumbo jumbo" and was mentioning Lindsay's 3 peaks as a side note. An interesting pattern to be sure. It can be looked at in many ways it seems. Some said the high was in place April 2011. Thanks for posting this chart. A possibility to keep in mind.
Reply
iTrade iTrade
http://goo.gl/flJGK
Reply
It's time to review this prediction. What do you think Algo?
Reply
Algokid PRO charttrader
Hi Chart Trader, That 's a Million dollar question.With SPY up more than 30 % since October , this profit taking was overdue.

Right now, it's seems the SPY is testing its support, which was 2011 highs(137.18). I will remain bullish if it trades at around that level. If 137 is broken however, I might consider closing my open positions.

Let's not forget that Earning season has started and this will affect the direction of the market. Also "summer" is around the corner, will traders "Sell in May and go away" ?

As per the publisher of this chart, Doug Kass, he 's long YHOO, MSFT, IFF, CSX, BTU and BRK.B.
Reply
Also take a look a Copper (JJC) high yield ( HYG or JNK) and Basic Materials ( IYM) those leading indicators broke their supports a few days before the SPY.
Reply
Thank you Algo. I personally entered short at 137 and now thinking if it makes sense to close it with zero profit.
Reply
Algokid PRO charttrader
Well you might be in a good position, I'm going to start a Journal for a new strategy i'm testing with QLD/QID. base on my entry criteria , i have a short signal right now. I will post the first entry tonight.
Reply
Sounds great. Thank you for your analysis.
Reply
Algo, are you still monitoring this? Works perfectly at this moment, it's interesting to know what will happen next.
Reply
Algokid PRO charttrader
Hey Trader, Yes I'm still following this closely. A little bit of track but in the right direction.
Reply
Does this mean that you are expecting further down trend?
Reply
Algokid PRO charttrader
The trends in copper, USD, and other securities seems to suggest further down days are coming. But I'm waiting till the next fed's meeting on June 20th to assess this. Recent economic data weren't that good, so will they introduce QE3 or perhaps extend operation twist ? i'll be listening for these key words
Reply
ty ty. keep it updated
Reply
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Polska
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
Indonesia
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out