I hear people saying that the year is predicted by January. We had a very bad January, so according to this theory the bulltrend is over. I heard another theory about how Hollywood predicted market crashes.
1. The wolf of wall street 1929 - before the big depression
2. Wall street 1987 - before the October crash
3. Boiler room 2000 - before the dotcom bubble burst
4. Wolf of wall street 2014 - QE/tapper crash??
Now, we have reached a very important , and it looks like the selloff stoped. Yesterday, it looks like a , but on my platform where I have the S&P index it is a long day, so I wouldn't pay so much attention to the candles.
What I like is the , which has been drawing a hidden divergence, which is . On the H4 S&P index chart, the histogram confirmes it with a which looks great, you can see a similar one at the top, before the market sold off. The gap up today increases the bullsh bias. This is the chart of the previous divergences that worked well so according to the saying 'history repeats itself', we should head higher. Nothing is sure!
It remains to be seen how much we can go up, by this I mean that I still don't know if a downtrend started, or this was just a correction in the uptrend. Weekly says downtrend started, actually posted an ideea last week , but daily says it is just a correction to the uptrend. I will watch for HH - LH patterns. Maybe we will get a , who knows... I don't like saying this and this and that will happen because I simply don't know.
Fundamentally, we have another 10 billion tapper by the FED, but Joe Hilsenrath announced this through an article 2 weeks ago, so it isnt a surprise. Maybe it is just a sign that the economy actually works and we can have another move up in the stock market.
I'm not going to trade this ideea, because I allready have longs initiated on AXP , CSCO and Delta, so this is a confirmation to me to keep the longs.