This is a quick analysis and related to an idea I posted recently on the SPX .

On the monthly chart, you can see that the SPY is currently at very strong overhead trend line resistance that goes back to 2012.

Something to take into consideration when planning your trades. This is a POSSIBLE top, but the SPY could easily ride this trend line upwards as it has done in the past. I believe at the very least, this trend line will decrease the rate of growth relative to what we've seen in these previous months.
Trade active: This was the exact top (at least for now). Price went from 338 to 314 since my analysis and appears to be continuing to trend lower.
Comment: Below is my prediction IF we open below the upper trend line drawn in this image below. A test of the 200 week moving average AFTER hitting that upper monthly trendline would be normal as it happened before in February 2016 (see chart above).

My goal is to find the best risk:reward setups. For instance, if you risk $1,000 at a chance to make $5,000, you can afford to be wrong 4 out of 5 times and still not lose money. I hit my targets over 50% of the time.


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