CosmicDust

SPY weekly - some observations - 8/29/2015

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
spy
385 8 12
spy
1. it is significant that a long term trend line broke, so be serious about it.

2. from this point on, risk to the downside is MUCH bigger than the risk to the upside, until a weekly close above 40 weeks moving average .

3. counter trend rally toward 40 week moving average is common, and can be traded.

4. given the light green parallel channel, I will not be surprised if the SPY             drops to $88, as this is totally possible.

5. formation of the down trend RSI channel signals the market is in trouble. However a break out of the upper parallel channel signals the trend change of the market.
Harsha_Kumar
a year ago
Very Interesting Observation ! Yeah We are Most Likely in the Beginning of the Next Stock Market Meltdown ! 2016 is also the Year of U.S President Elections. Perfect scenario for a Collapse.
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tristan.rhodes
a year ago
Nice analysis. I was not aware of the RSI channel, so I will keep my eye on that to help signal a bottom. Thanks!

You might find my analysis interesting:

Multi-year Bull and Bear Market Trends, using monthly MACD
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CosmicDust tristan.rhodes
a year ago
Very nice! Favorited and thanks!
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mikeoakster
a year ago
Perhaps we should also consider as probable target the trend line connecting the September 2002's low with the March 2009's low, thus forming an expanding triangle which wave E we would now be starting to ride.
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JeanLouisHardy
a year ago
looks like another 2 year drop on its way.. more money for traders!
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mikeoakster JeanLouisHardy
a year ago
One of the problems might be the value of paper money at the end of the collapse...
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CosmicDust mikeoakster
a year ago
You mean cash is king, or gold is king?
Reply
mikeoakster CosmicDust
a year ago
I mean king could be only hard assets...
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