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Weekly updated notes on chart
You're saying the market's going down further- Yes?
KLang JCrusadr
I'm not entirely sure - I think we're nearing a point to try long. BUT the move up was very strong, as was the move down previous to it. Makes we wonder if this move does continue. And the stoch has not made a cycle low has it
has when the t/l has been touched previously. I'd keep it tight and play shorter term patterns rather than swing or position trade.
I think any good news in oil and many will be broadsided with a huge updraft now. On the technical side we are in a buy area now, agree
KLang paulyberndt
The only possible good news in oil would be related to a) inventories or b) major geopolitical issues which would contain production or distribution.
+1 Reply
K like to know your thoughts on oil bottom correlating with what I think was a double bottom in CAT yesterday, can you confirm? Or do we wait and see next week to confirm? Sold to cash all VXX yesterday, pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. We might get a little follow through , but CAT is a big indicator for me on oil and economy. Thanks for all your posts, lots of respect.
KLang claydoctor
I think lower for CAT. How many times have I seen people trying to "catch a bottom" in oil? It's a fools game.
Actually I did very well with HAL on the way down. They are cousins on my radar screen, CAT is the older of the two, on my mother's side, anyway, cashed, and just waiting. No way I would try to time this bottom, but watching until a bounce with volume that confirms. And cashed out of VXX, saw you posted also you took a small position on that few days ago. I have to believe we are just a couple ticks away from WTI settling though. That long term trend support is awefully close by now. Those also serve those who stand and wait, I say. :)
KLang claydoctor
Too many people think we are near a bottom in WTI - for weeks my stream on TWTR is talking about it and have been wrong. I don't think people understand what's going on here, they just think it's an asset that shouldn't go down that much. The issue is very complicated, and I only grasp a small portion of it. Even if crude "settles" it could be months and months before it moves up for more than a few days or weeks. Look at GLD. Gold bugs all over that, screaming to buy GLD all year long - indeed, for years. But the chart is a hot mess and can only be played for short bursts. There are far easier ways to make money. If you have a super longer term view and want to play like Warren, sit in a position for 5 years, sure, it could work.
I spent all day yesterday reviewing the oil bounces from 2008 and 2011. 2008 we consolidated for a while and then up, 2011 was a "V" bottom. If I had to pick, I would say, laying over charts and indicators, this time we are more like 2011. But these are very different times, and I totally agree with you that this is way too complicated for my simple mind. Better to wait, verify the bottom with traditional methods, and then react. Problem is Oil is tied to just about everything these days, so you have to factor it, or at least its "news effect" with almost every trade, day, week, whatever. So I am hesitant to trade at all until OIl sets a new reliable trend. Actually, I have been influenced by you mostly to trust the chart patterns most of all. And if you chart and best indicators 2011 bounce compared to now, wow are they very similar. Just saying, but wont trade on it. Thanks for that leadership BTW, made me a better trader.
KLang claydoctor
The problem is, though, we broke out of the zone USO has been trading in since 2009. So, for me, I'd toss the theory out. When the nature of the beast changes, it's just a guess.

I'm glad to hear that I've influenced you in a positive way. That's very cool :)
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