Stock Markets hasn't gone anywhere in the last 1 year and 9 month. Some say Bullish Megaphone Pattern and I believe Its Bearish. Stock buy backs are loosing steam, Repo market smell funky, Consumer debt hitting all time high, Corporate Debt hitting all time high, Government Debt hitting all time high. When all debt hits all time high at the same time, we always have a Credit freeze. Especially when credit rating agencies have to downgrade corporate debt due to recession. More than half of Corporate bonds are just above Junk and most institution are not allowed to hold Junk rated Bonds. "People say recession is happening in 2020-21" I believe we are in a recession as of third quarter 2019 because ISM Manufacturing fell to 2009 levels and Fed Cut rates twice and started to expands its balance sheet faster than the midst of Great Recession on monthly basis as of September 2019 (Fed is fighting Recession). Main Stream media downplaying all the bad news and blaming Trade War but it won't delay the outcome. 69% of Americans preparing for a recession and google search for word "recession" hit a same level as of 2008.
Lets witness the Biggest Bubble to unfold. Historic time. We have been too complacent in the past 40 Years and now its time to wake up and innovate. Sooner we realize we are behind China sooner we will innovate. Crisis can be good sometimes. Hopefully this one is good one for us!!!
Yes macro is bad but FED is bailing us out of it and there's some evidence that suggests macro should start to improve. Trump or a Republican will need to win in 2020 to keep the trend going as well.
David_Scott
⋅
FED bailed us out in 2012 and 2016 and are doing it again. Gonna see another 2-3 year bull trend breakout of this consolidation assuming all three phases of the China deal get signed, FED continues QE and rate cuts as needed, Europe doesn't completely fall apart.
avka81
⋅
@David_Scott, Man damage is already done. Fed raised rates too fast in an Evonomy that addicted to Cheap Money. Always a lag time and this 2 cuts and QE will not help before 2020 election. Remember no republican president gets re-elected during recession. Federal Reserve lost control longtime ago. Can’t raise rates to fight Recession and can’t cut rates because they unleash Inflation. They cornered themselves into a corner. Looks like they need something to blame other than themself. And Guess who they gonna blame!? Trade War LOL Doesn’t look good bro!