SPY-CRASH IMMINENT-UPDATE for AMEX:SPY by FibMarketWatch

SPY has completed a 5 Wave Cycle and is in the midst of an irregular correction. Irregular Corrections have a phenomenon which Elliot called, "Double Retrace".

Irregular Correction most often manifest after a 5 Wave Cycle with an Extended 5th Wave.

This is an update to my original idea on July 27th, 2018: SPY-SELL-BUY PUTS

Original Idea:

First, I thought that SPY was experiencing a 'normal' correction and we would see a correction around the $280 level in July. But, instead we got an irregular correction. Irregular Corrections can be spotted when Wave B goes above the Terminal of the 5th Wave which SPY has done.

The Correction is now in Wave C and Wave C always is completed by 5 Waves. So far, we have only completed Waves 1 & 2. Wave 3 which is normally the most violent is upon us. This is most likely the last opportunity to either sell out of positions or buy protection.

Cycle Wave:

Wave Degrees:

Fib Time:

Will update.
-AB

Targets: $240 + $210 (Double Retrace)

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Sub-Wave 1 & 2 complete for Wave 3.

Sub-Wave 3 beginning now.

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Wave 3 down is extending as expected...

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Candle Chart:

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On Watch for the Fall...

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Sub-Wave 5 broke the extension trigger (Trend line - Wave 2 Terminal - Wave 4 Terminal)

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Trend line - Wave 1 Terminal to Wave 3 Terminal

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Starting to crack...

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Fall at the bell?

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ABC Correction about done...

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Correction was Flat.

Wave C should not go much further than Terminal point of Wave A.

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Terminal of Wave A represented by Yellow Horizontal Trend line.

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We can use Sub-Wave 1 to estimate the Terminal of the Higher Degree 3rd Wave...

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Scenario 1 - S1 + S3 trend near equality

Estimate for S3 Terminal

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$252.25 would be the terminal point for S3 if they trend near equality.

Under this Scenario you would expect S5 to extend...

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Green Box is the target for S3

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Note Sub-Wave 1 and it respective minuscule sub-waves. Note sub-wave 3 extended (Callout). It is implying that the higher degree wave 3 will extend.

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Correction over...now to go down.

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Reminder: The Global Supply Chain and Monetary system is being reset...

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Probably will hold around here till the end of the day...

I expect Monday to be ugly...

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The fall gets worse and worse the longer we put it off...

We should have fell in July...

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2 Hours...

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Complex Correction....

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DECEMBER 5th

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Here comes a drop...

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Corrected Wave Count...

Not Complex...

Just a long C Wave...

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Sub-Wave 1 & 2 finishing now...

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Reversal should be beginning now...

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Wave Down beginning...

Looks like we have an extending 3rd SW

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Correction over in an estimated 196 days....

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Price line is resting on Terminal Wave 1

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Just delaying the inevitable now...

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C Wave is Finished.

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Updated Correction....

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tomorrow could be the fall...

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SPY and VIX

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I believe people are missing the back story of the trade war and are underestimating the power struggle that is currently unfolding before us...

Multiple downside catalyst inbound....

Headlines:

1. Migrants Storm the Border
2. Mueller Investigation
3. China Trade
4. Brexit
5. Russia
6. FISA

Backstories:
-Corporate Corruption
-Global Supply Chain reset
-Federal Reserve Structure Change

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VIX Wave Analysis

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Looks like the VIX is about to spike....

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Fed is going to be the Catalyst....

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Watch for the reversal...

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Sub-Wave 1 and Sub-Wave 2 of Higher Degree 3rd complete.

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Move downwards should now start to accelerate...

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Price-Action will start to break down here...

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Let's review the overall Weekly chart...

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We needed to get above and hold $282 to prevent a double retrace.

Point of Failure was around $272-$274

We have retraced the 5th Wave extension which is always the 1st Retrace level

Now, we need to go back and look to see where were the terminal points of Wave 1 & Wave 2.

Wave 1 Terminal - $210-$211
Wave 2 Terminal - $198-$199

These levels are the Targets for the Terminal point of Cycle Wave 2

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Next, let's use Fib Time to get an estimate of how long it will take us to complete Wave 3, 4, and Wave 5 of Cycle Wave 2.

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Wave 3 Terminal estimated to be complete in 14 days...

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Excuse me, a more accurate estimate is 56 days...

Wave 5 estimated to be complete in 140 days...

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We can also use Wave 1 draw-down to get an estimate for Wave 3 and Wave 5.

We know that 2/3 Waves will trend near equality...

We know that Wave 3 usually extends and that Sub-Wave 3 in Wave 1 did extend. So, we should expect the 3rd Wave down to extend as well.

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Above: Hypothetical Price-Action with an Extended 3rd Wave...

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Wave 1 + Wave 5 expected to trend near equality...

Wave 1 = -11.60%

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The Big Move and Vix spike I estimate will be around December 5th - December 10th

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Let's review where we are....

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6HR Chart...

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SPY failed exactly at the Point of Failure Trend line...

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Once the market realizes that this market is not going higher anytime soon the turn should be fairly quick...

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Current Sub-Wave Count:

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12/5/19 - Key Date that keeps showing up in my analysis...

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*12/5/18

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This chart is the most worrying in my opinion...

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99% positive we just finished a Super-Millennium cycle....

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Wave 5 could extend further but do you think that is possible with a global supply chain and monetary reset?

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Elliot Rule - Correction will take at least 3,288 days and draw-down will be at least 83.93%

IF this is the end of the Super-Millennium Cycle....

What's going on?

1. Old Guard vs. New Guard Epic Power Struggle
2. All Trade Deals are being dissolved
3. How many CEOs have either resigned or been fired? Literally Thousands...
4. How many lawmakers did NOT seek re-election? Record Number
5. What new asset class is forming and will disrupt almost every single industry? Digital Assest/Blockchain
6. What was the first EO signed by Trump?

Do I need to continue?

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Fib Extension for S1 & S2

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Target for S3

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Here is the update to the earlier chart I posted this morning...

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Same Spirals just different view...

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Note the red and purple spiral intersect and the date...

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Near Dec. 5th...

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Noting Chart Correction...

Sub-Wave 3 Terminal was incorrect.

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Added Green Spiral...

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What’s happening on Dec. 5th?

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The executive order, released Dec.1, orders the heads of agencies and departments to prepare for the closing, including determining which offices will remain open and personnel will be required to report for national security, defense or other essential duties.

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It also says that Dec. 5 will fall under the purview of executive order 11582, making it an observable holiday. This means federal employees will not experience any interruptions in their pay.

The executive order authorizes the Office of Personnel Management to take necessary actions to implement the order.

This closure will occur two days before the deadline for Congress to pass the following seven appropriations bills:

Commerce, Justice, Science and Related Agencies
Interior, Environment and Related Agencies
Financial Services and General Government
Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration and Related Agencies
Homeland Security
Transportation, Housing and Urban Development and Related Agencies
State, Foreign Operations and Related Agencies
The current continuing resolution for the agencies covered under these remaining appropriations bills expires Dec. 7. If these appropriations bills are not passed, those agencies will face another shutdown.

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Google’s CEO is supposed to testify before the House on Dec. 5th as well.

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The U.S. House Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing with Google Chief Executive Sundar Pichai on the Alphabet Inc unit's social media practices on Dec. 5, the committee said on Wednesday. Pichai in September had agreed to testify at a future date before the panel over Republican concerns that the company is biased against conservatives after it skipped a high-profile Senate hearing. Google has denied it is biased toward conservatives.

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US will hold off on raising China tariffs to 25% as Trump and Xi agree to a 90-day trade truce. Source:

Now, let's see what could happen...

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The only thing that changes in the analysis is the terminal point for Wave C. Wave C is always made up of 5 sub-waves...

We are currently in the 5th Sub-Wave now...

So, C Wave will probably finish between the .382 and .618 extension level of Wave 3 and Wave 4.

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Teal Box is where C Wave should terminate or between $281 & 278...

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This coming week should be very interesting...

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Another view...

Same spirals..

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With Green Spiral...

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I think we might get to $278 before a reversal....

Just a band-aid until the inevitable in my opinion...

Might be a big week for big tech....cockroaches still remaining...

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Above Chart looks like the most likely scenario...

Fail between $277 and $278....

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I'm going to go ahead and start posting articles that I believe to be part of this Global Power struggle...

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Start helping connecting some dots...

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Quiet story but one with potentially big implications...

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After-Hours: High $280.41...Gap up...

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SPX Chart....

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he 400-day deployment is in support of Operation Enduring Freedom, according to Sgt. First Class Reginald Pickett, with the 305th. He said the troops will be performing various military police duties during this period. Several speakers, including Lt. Col. Jonathan Bennett, commander of the 400th Military Police Battalion, spoke to the troops and their families about the hardships involved with a long deployment.

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Yesterday, hundreds of people donned yellow vests and protested outside major EU buildings in Brussels - amid concern among officials that the protest could spill across borders.

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*Europe is failing*

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Spain is just the latest country in the eurozone to have its people show support for anti-EU parties. It follows Italy and Sweden in latest elections.

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Hanging on a cliff right now....buckle up...

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New York (CNN Business)US financial markets will be closed on Wednesday to honor the memory of former President George H.W. Bush, who passed away late Friday at the age of 94.
The White House said Saturday President Donald Trump would declare December 5th a national day of mourning for the country's 41st president. "He and the First Lady will attend the funeral at the National Cathedral in Washington, D.C.," the statement said.
The New York Stock Exchange said it will suspend normal trading on Wednesday. "The exchange will observe a minute of silence to honor President Bush on Monday. As per our tradition, we will close the markets in observation of the Day of Mourning," spokesperson Kristen Kaus said.
The Nasdaq will also close for the day.

The stock exchange will observe a moment of silence on Monday "and plans to be closed on December 5, the national day of mourning designated by President Trump," Nasdaq spokesman Will Briganti said.

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As many as 500 people were rounded up in the sweep. Saudi Arabian banks froze more than 2,000 domestic accounts as part of the crackdown. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Saudi government targeted cash and assets worth up to $800 billion. The Saudi authorities claimed that amount was composed of assets worth around $300 billion to $400 billion that they can prove was linked to corruption

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ttorney General Sheikh Saud Al Motjeb said in a statement that the arrests were "merely the start of a vital process to root out corruption wherever it exists." He added that those detained would have access to legal counsel and pledges to hold trials "in a timely and open manner." Meanwhile, King Salman appointed 26 new judges.

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****Interesting Quote: 'merely the start of a vital process to root out corruption wherever it exists'***

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Who would want MBS to look like a savage murder of journalist?

Logic. Check.

Common sense. Check.

=Old Guard.

Where is the body?

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Look to Saudi Arabia's purge as a template.

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Target for Terminal 5/C Wave hit.

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On November 15, Ernst & Young and other private firms that were hired to audit the Pentagon announced that they could not complete the job. Congress had ordered an independent audit of the Department of Defense, the government’s largest discretionary cost center—the Pentagon receives 54 cents out of every dollar in federal appropriations—after the Pentagon failed for decades to audit itself. The firms concluded, however, that the DoD’s financial records were riddled with so many bookkeeping deficiencies, irregularities, and errors that a reliable audit was simply impossible.

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As Republican Senator Charles Grassley of Iowa, a frequent critic of the DoD’s financial practices, said on the Senate floor in September 2017, the Pentagon’s long-standing failure to conduct a proper audit reflects “twenty-six years of hard-core foot-dragging” on the part of the DoD, where “internal resistance to auditing the books runs deep.”

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or decades, the DoD’s leaders and accountants have been perpetrating a gigantic, unconstitutional accounting fraud, deliberately cooking the books to mislead the Congress and drive the DoD’s budgets ever higher, regardless of military necessity. DoD has literally been making up numbers in its annual financial reports to Congress—representing trillions of dollars’ worth of seemingly nonexistent transactions—knowing that Congress would rely on those misleading reports when deciding how much money to give the DoD the following year, according to government records and interviews with current and former DoD officials, congressional sources, and independent experts.

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****Data Dumps coming?*****

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The plugs can be staggering in size. In fiscal year 2015, for example, Congress appropriated $122 billion for the US Army. Yet DoD financial records for the Army’s 2015 budget included a whopping $6.5 trillion (yes, trillion) in plugs. Most of these plugs “lack supporting documentation,” in the bland phrasing of the department’s internal watchdog, the Office of Inspector General. In other words, there were no ledger entries or receipts to back up how that $6.5 trillion supposedly was spent. Indeed, more than 16,000 records that might reveal either the source or the destination of some of that $6.5 trillion had been “removed,” the inspector general’s office reported.

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The upshot is that no one can know for sure how much of that $21 trillion was, or was not, being spent legitimately.

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*Well if the 41st President didn't die...

*What would the news coverage look like?

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The auditors estimated that the Pentagon made “improper payments” — which lacked sufficient or appropriate documentation or approvals — of $957 million in 2017 and $1.2 billion in 2018. While even that larger amount is a fraction of the overall Pentagon spending, such payments grew by 25 percent over those two years, a worrying trend that needs to be reversed.

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The unfavorable audit results come at an awkward time. A recent congressionally mandated study reached the alarming conclusion that despite all the money spent on defense, the United States today is so weakened that it “might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against China or Russia.” The study also found that America’s military superiority and technological edge over those two major adversaries has eroded.

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Well there is Murller’s Case...

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He colluded with Russia because his son took a meeting with a Russian lawyer for opposition research that lasted 20 minutes.

Nail in Coffin: Heresey about an opposition research meeting.

***No Direct Evidence***

***A Story****

Mueller needs direct data, voice, or video evidence that shows the Trump Campaign instructing Russia to green light a hack on the DNC and instructions on how to release the information.

Mueller is now trying to squeeze heads for testimony...

This one meeting is the basis of the conspiracy and a Trump Tower deal.

The meeting yielded no information - No evidence

***This is how I see this Chess game...

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At the DFAS offices that handle accounting for the Army, Navy, Air Force and other defense agencies, fudging the accounts with false entries is standard operating procedure, Reuters has found. And plugging isn't confined to DFAS (pronounced DEE-fass). Former military service officials say record-keeping at the operational level throughout the services is rife with made-up numbers to cover lost or missing information.

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Plugs also are symptomatic of one very large problem: the Pentagon's chronic failure to keep track of its money - how much it has, how much it pays out and how much is wasted or stolen.

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This is the second installment in a series in which Reuters delves into the Defense Department's inability to account for itself. The first article examined how the Pentagon's record-keeping dysfunction results in widespread pay errors that inflict financial hardship on soldiers and sap morale. This account is based on interviews with scores of current and former Defense Department officials, as well as Reuters analyses of Pentagon logistics practices, bookkeeping methods, court cases and reports by federal agencies.

***Series...

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What would solve accounting issues?

Blockchain.

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In one example of many, the Army lost track of $5.8 billion of supplies between 2003 and 2011 as it shuffled equipment between reserve and regular units. Affected units "may experience equipment shortages that could hinder their ability to train soldiers and respond to emergencies," the Pentagon inspector general said in a September 2012 report.

Because of its persistent inability to tally its accounts, the Pentagon is the only federal agency that has not complied with a law that requires annual audits of all government departments. That means that the $8.5 trillion in taxpayer money doled out by Congress to the Pentagon since 1996, the first year it was supposed to be audited, has never been accounted for. That sum exceeds the value of China's economic output last year.

****$8.5 Trillion....mind-numbing....

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Failed to get above $282...

Confirmed Double Retrace...

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Last call to get out of positions and buy protection....

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Monthly Overview...

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The World is Changing....

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Short S&P 500

Long Blockchain/Crypto

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Fed Inverted Yields...

Trade is a FRACTION of the economy...

A FRACTION!!!!!!!!!!!

This is not about China....

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Much deeper than China...

How long will troops be deployed to GITMO? 400 days

Fib Time = Correction over in 394 days....

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Excuse above...

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Panic is starting to hit the market...

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Talking heads don't understand why the market is going down....

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Massive Sub-wave 3 extending...

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Sub-Wave 1 and Sub-Wave 3 extended...

Look for the higher waves to extend...

Not good...

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No support in sight...

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until $240

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watch the close...

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Reminder: Dec. 5th-Jan. 1st are key dates that I found to keep appearing in my SPY analysis for when a possible crash could occur...

Dec. 5th seems to be playing out as expected though...

Market is perfectly set-up for a crash when the market reopens...

We will see what happens...

I see multiple downside catalyst inbound...

Europe is on the brink of a full on revolution...

America has never been more divided except for the civil war era...

Mueller is starting to file his memos...

Government is on the edge of being shutdown over funding...

Big Tech CEOs on watch...

All US trade deals being dissolved...

Fed on death watch...the Fed inverted the yield curve...

ECB is about to stop QE...

China has a massive credit bubble looking ready to burst...

UK Brexit has turned into a disaster...

US Corporate Debt is looking to burst...

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Special Counsel Robert Mueller filed his sentencing memo in the case of former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn Tuesday night. While much of the memo and its accompanying addendum were either redacted or based on information already made public, two things were made perfectly clear: 1) Mueller’s Russia probe was just one of “several” investigations Flynn helped with, and 2) Mueller is very happy with Flynn right now. The revelation of these mystery investigations could be the most important takeaway from the memo so far.

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***Flynn Scott Free and Provided major assistance to other criminal investigations besides Russia.

FLASHBACK:

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***Who are the Podesta brothers? Longtime confidant to the Clintons.

Bill Clinton’s Chief of Staff

Hillary Clinton’s Campaign Manager

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***Anyone seeing these chess moves?

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FLASHBACK: The cases involve Gregory B. Craig, who served as the White House counsel under President Barack Obama before leaving to work for the law firm Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom; former Representative Vin Weber, Republican of Minnesota, who joined Mercury Public Affairs, a lobbying firm, after leaving Congress; and Tony Podesta, a high-powered Washington lobbyist whose brother, John D. Podesta, was the chairman of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign.

Source:

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Contrary to media speculation that Robert Mueller is closing in on President Trump, the special prosecutor’s plea deal with Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen offers further evidence that the Trump campaign did not collude with Russians during the 2016 election, according to congressional investigators and former prosecutors.

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Nice to see the past 3 Presidents and their respective cabinets memebers all together in one place...

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As we honor the death GHWB.

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***Checkmate?

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What did Comey say during his House testimony about if DJT and investigations?

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***What did Comey’s testimony say in regards to DJT being under investigation?

***Please excuse typos...

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Futures: 2,649...

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The Futures are crashing...

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Vix at 20?

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Watch out below...

Logical?

Why?

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Higher Wave 3 is looking to be extended.

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Key Level: 2648

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Sub-Waves look extremely horrible....

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NYT: The cases cut across party lines, focusing on both powerful Democratic and Republican players in Washington, including one whom Mr. Trump has repeatedly targeted — the Democratic superlobbyist Tony Podesta. Source above.

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Internal Facebook documents released by a U.K. parliamentary committee offer the clearest evidence yet that the social network has used its enormous trove of user data as a competitive weapon, often in ways designed to keep its users in the dark.
Parliament’s media committee accused Facebook on Wednesday of cutting special deals with some app developers to give them more access to data, while icing out others that it viewed as potential rivals.

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Let me be clear this is NOT a political analysis...

This analysis is simply trying to find POTENTIAL downside catalysts before they occur so viewers can PROFIT. Fibonacci time + Spirals + Wave Thoery can predict stock movements to a very high level of accuracy.

The articles I post are in my opinion notable to be a POTENTIAL downside catalyst. Not political, Not endorsing, just articles that I think should be in my peripheral vision.

I hate politics and am not affiliated with either party.

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Market Crash because the CFO of Huawei was arrested?

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***So, market is crashing because the CFO to Huawei was arrested?

Not logical to me...

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Sub-Wave 1 Extended

Higher Degree Wave 1 in Wave 3 is likely to extend...

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So, Wave 3 down has begun....

Wave 3 is the most likely wave to extend...

How can you know that the third wave has started?

You will see prices moving up (or down) suddenly and swiftly. When you look at the chart, you can immediately see that the third wave is steeper than the first wave. Volume will typically increase during the third wave.

Now there are a few additional points that you should take note here. As already mentioned, the third wave cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves. This means it can be shorter than wave 1, provided wave 5 is shorter still. So you cannot conclude that what is finishing is not a third wave merely on the fact that it is shorter than the prior wave 1. It could be that wave 1 had extended, and hence wave 3 was a normal wave. That brings us to the question, ‘what is a normal wave 3’? A normal third wave should typically respect the relationship that internal waves bear to each other. What are these relationships? It is normal for any two impulse waves to tend to equality. For example, waves 1 and 3 could be equal, or waves 3 and 5 could be equal, or waves 1 and 5 could be equal. When I say equal, bear in mind that this is an approximation. So inside a normal third wave you will observe such a relationship...

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If wave three (now we are talking of the bigger wave 3) travels beyond the equality measure of wave 1, then the next likely target will be 123.6% of wave 1, or 161.8% of wave 1. So long as wave 3 does not go farther than 161.8% of wave 1, then we will assume that this was a ‘normal’ third wave.

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What happens when a third wave goes beyond 161.8% of wave 1? In this case, we will conclude that wave 3 was undergoing an extension! How far can an extension travel? Honestly, there is no way one can tell in advance (which is another reason why you should not rush to take profits if you are on board a third wave, because who knows, it could extend tremendously, and make you stinking rich!) However, beyond the 161.8%, typically one will see the market pausing for breath at the 200%, 261.8% and 300% measures of wave 1.

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2648 has been broken...

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This looks to be Sub-Wave 1 of Higher 3rd...

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Wave 3 and Wave 5 have trended near equality...

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Retrace <.382..

Implied Extension...

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We had a ZigZag Correction...

S2 of higher Wave 3 was weak...

Minuscule Sub-Wave 3 and Sub-Wave 5 Extended as well...

All signs that this is far from over...

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Vix still didn't spike...

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Watch Futures...

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The email exchanges included then-FBI Director James Comey, key FBI investigators in the Russia probe and lawyers in the DOJ’s national security division, and they occurred in early to mid-October, before the FBI successfully secured a FISA warrant to spy on Trump campaign adviser Carter Page.

The email exchanges show the FBI was aware — before it secured the now-infamous warrant — that there were intelligence community concerns about the reliability of the main evidence used to support it: the Christopher Steele dossier.

The exchanges also indicate FBI officials were aware that Steele, the former MI6 British intelligence operative then working as a confidential human source for the bureau, had contacts with news media reporters before the FISA warrant was secured.

The FBI fired Steele on Nov. 1, 2016 — two weeks after securing the warrant — on the grounds that he had unauthorized contacts with the news media.

But the FBI withheld from the American public and Congress, until months later, that Steele had been paid to find his dirt on Trump by a firm doing political opposition research for the Democratic Party and for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, and that Steele himself harbored hatred for Trump.

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“If these documents are released, the American public will have clear and convincing evidence to see the FISA warrant that escalated the Russia probe just before Election Day was flawed and the judges misled,” one knowledgeable source told me.

Congressional investigators also have growing evidence that some evidence inserted into the fourth and final application for the FISA — a document signed by current Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein — was suspect.

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The answer to the second question may reside in 6,000 pages of evidence attached to a whistleblower submission filed secretly more than a year ago with the IRS and FBI.

That evidence was assembled by a private firm called MDA Analytics LLC, run by accomplished ex-federal criminal investigators, who alleged the Clinton Foundation engaged in illegal activities and may be liable for millions of dollars in delinquent taxes and penalties.

In addition to the IRS, the firm’s partners have had contact with prosecutors in the main Justice Department in Washington and FBI agents in Little Rock, Ark. And last week, a federal prosecutor suddenly asked for documents from their private investigation.

The 48-page submission, dated Aug. 11, 2017, supports its claims with 95 exhibits, including internal legal reviews that the foundation conducted on itself in 2008 and 2011.

Those reviews flagged serious concerns about legal compliance, improper commingling of personal and charity business and “quid pro quo” promises made to donors while Hillary Clinton was secretary of State.

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Sub-Wave 5 is looking to extend as well

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.618 broke...for S5

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Crash ahead....

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Acceleration down should be beginning momentarily...

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Something big is about to drop...

Move down is imminent...

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CRASH ALERT!

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5th expected to be extended (Yellow Box)

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Price line resting Wave 1...

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Also, could be counted as an ABC. Like below...

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Correction over...

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Buckle up...

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Wave 2 Retrace = .618 = Normal

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Wave 3 Beginning...

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Wave 1 and Wave 3 cannot trend near equality....

Wave 3 must extend...

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Don't know what the catalyst will be but it will have to be something big....

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Past articles posted could be potential catalyst...

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Hanging on the edge...

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So close to breaking...

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2Hrs...

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Major Catalyst could occur over the weekend...

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Robert Mueller and Leakin’ Lyin’ James Comey are Best Friends, just one of many Mueller Conflicts of Interest. And bye the way, wasn’t the woman in charge of prosecuting Jerome Corsi (who I do not know) in charge of “legal” at the corrupt Clinton Foundation? A total Witch Hunt…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

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This is going to be extremely ugly...

No way to sugar coat it (SP500 Crash)...

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Where did the missing Trillions, yes, Trillions go to from the Pentagon?

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Fact: Trillions went missing from the Pentagon.

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What technology companies received money from the DoD and Pentagon?

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The National Security Agency paid millions of dollars to cover the costs of major internet companies involved in the Prism surveillance program after a court ruled that some of the agency's activities were unconstitutional, according to top-secret material passed to the Guardian.

The technology companies, which the NSA says includes Google, Yahoo, Microsoft and Facebook, incurred the costs to meet new certification demands in the wake of the ruling from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance (Fisa) court.

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***FISA

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Expand your thinking...

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House of Cards...

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5th on .618 line...

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2 hours almost up...

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Broke .618...

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Drop NOW....

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Lots or rumors going around right now...

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Watch Futures...

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Overview...

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Fib Time - Increasing...

500 days now...

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Fib Extension of Wave 1 & 2

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Next week...

The Fall?

Have a great weekend!

Will be updating...

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Fib Spiral Estimate for Terminal 3rd...

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Only thing that would stop SPY from crashing Monday would be a complex correction...

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Futures should be able to tell us...

2653...

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France is experiencing a fourth weekend of Yellow Vest protests.

The government has deployed 89,000 police across the country.

In Paris, the epicenter of the protests, 8,000 police and a dozen armored vehicles have been mobilized.

Museums, tourist sites, department stores and many metro stations in Paris are closed on Saturday.

Deputy interior minister Laurent Nunez said an estimated 31,000 people were demonstrating nationwide.

Comment:

France is in the throes of violent riots that could mutate into a revolution and bring down President Macron, yesterday’s European Man of Destiny. Germany is suffering a leadership crisis brought on by Merkel’s reckless decision to invite the Middle East into the continent. Italy is engaged in a bitter struggle between its populist government and the increasingly autocratic European Commission over an economic policy that has repressed Italy’s growth for 20 years. Hungary and Poland are also at odds with Brussels. And half the continent is dragged down by the weight of a falling Euro.

Today’s EU bears little or no similarity to the new European superpower that has been glimpsed fitfully in our dreams of the future since 1989. It is extraordinary that May should be pressing her reluctant nation to remain inside a crumbling undemocratic polity as a vassal state with no right of exit.

***EU on death watch...

Comment:

Comey, who appeared under subpoena, announced after the meeting that he would return for more questioning Dec. 17. Appearing annoyed, he said “we’re talking about Hillary Clinton’s emails, for heaven’s sake, so I’m not sure we needed to do this at all.”

A transcript of the interview, expected to be released shortly, “will bore you,” Comey said.

Two GOP-led committees brought Comey in as they sought to wrap up a yearlong investigation into the department’s decisions in 2016. Republicans argue that department officials were biased against Donald Trump as they started an investigation into his campaign’s ties to Russia and cleared Democrat Hillary Clinton in the probe into her email use. Comey was in charge of both investigations.

Source:

Comment:

WASHINGTON – Former White House chief of staff John Kelly, who was assigned to bring a level of discipline to President Donald Trump’s often chaotic administration, is leaving the post after internal tensions increasingly spilled into public view in recent months, Trump said Saturday.

Kelly's decision ends a tumultuous 17-month tenure in which he tried, but largely failed, to bring a Marine Corps-style order to a White House that has hewed more closely to the freewheeling management style Trump embraced as a New York businessman.

Trump brought Kelly into a White House riven by internal feuds in July 2017. Weeks after ousting Scaramucci, Kelly orchestrated the departure of senior adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Trump's campaign who clashed with other members of the staff.

Comment:

Source:

Comment:

Hypothetical:

Team A: Wants to prove/persuade to the world that Trump colluded with Russia
Team B: Wants to prove/persuade to the world that their is a shadow government rife with corruption

If I/You were playing in this grand chess game and the goal is to prove/persuade to the American public that there really is a shadow government how would I/you go about doing it?

And vice versa

If I/You were playing in the grand chess game and the goal is to prove/persuade to the American public that Trump colluded with Russia to win the 2016 election how would I/you go about doing it?

Comment:

If I was...

Team B (Russia): Infiltrate Trump campaign/White House and track communications to spot/reveal and/or setup Russian connections.

Team A (Shadow Gov): Anticipate bad actors in campaign/White House and place in highest levels of office. Let the bad actor serve office and wire-tap communications.

Comment:

With his decision to replace VA Secretary David Shulkin, President Trump is once again setting records for turnover. No elected first-term president in the past 100 years has had this much Cabinet turnover this early in his presidency. And since the establishment of the secretary of Veterans Affairs as a Cabinet position in 1989, Shulkin has served the shortest of any secretary, with the exception of those who came on board to serve out the tail end of a president's term.

Trump's willingness to say "you're fired" (or to have someone else say it) to so many people, so early in his administration, is just another way Trump is unlike those who have come before him. In addition to his Cabinet, the churn in top-level staff in the Trump White House is also off the charts.

"There will always be change, and I think you want to see change," Trump said on March 15, not quite tamping down the latest rumors of possible Cabinet departures. "And I want to also see different ideas."

Comparing numbers

In just 14 months on the job, Trump has had more Cabinet turnover than 16 of his predecessors had in their first two years. With Shulkin's exit, Trump has now tied Ronald Reagan, who had four Cabinet departures — and they all came well into his second year in office.

Comparing numbers

In just 14 months on the job, Trump has had more Cabinet turnover than 16 of his predecessors had in their first two years. With Shulkin's exit, Trump has now tied Ronald Reagan, who had four Cabinet departures — and they all came well into his second year in office.

Several other members of the Cabinet are either clouded in controversy over possible misuse of public funds or otherwise earning the ire of President Trump. Other presidents with early Cabinet turnover saw departures for entirely different reasons.

Source:

Comment:

Google back on the Calendar for Dec. 11th.

Comment:

Comey testimoney:

Comment:

Director Comey, I'd like to ask you some
questions about the events surrounding your July 5th, 2016, press
conference to announce your decision not to charge Hillary
Clinton for the mishandling of classified information.

One of the things that happened the week before that press
conference was, on June 27th of 2016, a meeting between Attorney
General Lynch and former President Bill Clinton, a meeting that
got a lot of attention. Do you recall that?

Mr. Comey: I do recall press coverage of a meeting on June
27th.
Mr. Ratcliffe: one thing I have to make sure is clear.
You said my decision not to prosecute Hillary Clinton. I made
a recommendation on behalf of the FBI to the Department of
Justice. I just want to make sure that's precise. I do recall the coverage around that meeting.
Mr. Ratcliffe:
And that is a meeting that took place on
a tarmac in Phoenix, Arizona?
Mr. Comey:
That's my recollection, yes, sir.
Mr. Ratcliffe: Do you agree that any discussion
about the Hillary Clinton mishandling classified information
investigation, as you called it today, between the Attorney
General and the spouse of the subject of the investigation would
have been inappropriate?
Mr. Ratcliffe:
Highly unusual for an Attorney General to
meet with the spouse of the subject of one of her investigations.
Do you agree with that?
Mr. Comey:
I would agree with that.

Comment:

During a March 2018 interview on Lou Dobbs’s Fox Business Network show, GWU professor Jonathan Turley made some incredible comments about Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ decision to appoint U.S. Attorney John Huber to investigate potential government wrongdoing during the Obama administration that few appreciated at the time. Turley said that by having Huber work with the Department of Justice, the administration is combining all the work of the DOJ inspector general and previous investigations, with an active prosecutor who can quickly bring charges, seek indictments, and get results for President Trump -- far more quickly than a second special counsel could. Many Republican lawmakers have called for a second special counsel to investigate concerns about the Mueller probe with regard to FISA abuse and the Steele dossier, but Turley argues that this method will bring faster results.

“I think did the right thing here,” said Turley. “I think the president should listen to General Sessions on this one.”

Sessions “can always appoint a special counsel,” Turley explained, but that should not even be necessary because Huber “has the ability to prosecute cases.”

“Do these prosecutors have the same power to investigate and get to the bottom of things that a special counsel would have?” Varney asked.

“Actually, yes,” Turley answered. “I think people are missing what could be a brilliant move here by Sessions. What he did is he essentially combined the powers of the inspector general with the powers of a line prosecutor.”

“This prosecutor does have not just the experience and training to look for a criminal case; he has the ability to move a case of that kind” in court, Turley emphasized.

Not only that, but if Sessions believes crimes were committed, but Huber for some reason does not bring charges, “Sessions has reserved the right to go ahead and appoint a special counsel,” said Turley.

“That’s a powerful combination,” he observed.

Comment:

Source:

When does Huber testify to the House?

Comment:

Since late October, more than 9,000 sealed indictments have been filed in districts across the United States. Sealed indictments are typically used in prosecuting individuals or criminal networks in cases where revealing names could lead individuals to flee or destroy evidence.

As of Dec. 22, 2017, there were 9,294 sealed indictments, according to data collected by researchers and gathered from the Public Access to Court Electronic Records (PACER) service of the federal judiciary. This includes 1,224 in the central district of California, which includes Los Angeles; 194 in Washington; and 248 in the southern district of New York.

The number of indictments filed in less than three months is in stark contrast to previous years. According to a 2009 report from the Federal Judicial Center, in all of 2006, there were only 1,077 sealed indictments, and these were about 0.96 percent of all criminal cases that year.

According to Marc Ruskin, a former FBI undercover agent and author of “The Pretender: My Life Undercover for the FBI,” it’s unclear whether the current sealed indictments are connected, but the high number is something he never saw in his 27 years as an agent.

***What is the current sealed indictment count?

Pacer.gov:

Public Access to Court Electronic Records (PACER) is an electronic public access service that allows users to obtain case and docket information online from federal appellate, district, and bankruptcy courts, and the PACER Case Locator. PACER is provided by the Federal Judiciary in keeping with its commitment to providing public access to court information via a centralized service.

Comment:

Session's letter about Huber:

Congress created the Department’s Office of the Inspector General explicitly for the purpose of, among other things, investigating alleged violations of criminal and civil laws by Department employees, including actions taken by former employees after they have left government service. The Inspector General’s jurisdiction extends not only to allegations of legal violations, but also to allegations that Department employees violated established policies as well.

To carry out these duties, Title 5 of the United States Code provides the Inspector General with broad discretion and significant investigative powers. The office currently employs approximately 470 staff, a significant number of whom are lawyers, auditors, and investigators who may exercise wide discretion on matters under their jurisdiction. If the Inspector General finds evidence of criminal wrongdoing, he may refer it to a United States Attorney who can then convene a grand jury or take other appropriate actions. To be clear, the Inspector General has the authority to investigate allegations of wrongdoing, collect evidence through subpoena, and develop cases for presentation to the Attorney General and the Deputy Attorney General for prosecution or other action.

Comment:

***470 lawyers, auditors, and investigators...

Comment:

Puzzle pieces coming together yet?

Comment:

Key Levels in Yellow box

Yellow box = Normal Retracement

Comment:

Buckle Up...

Comment:

Yellow is Normal
Green is Extension

Comment:

Sub-Waves

Comment:

S1 - Extended - Retrace <=.382

Expect Higher to extend...

Comment:

Sub-Wave 3 was Normal

Higher Wave expected to be Normal

Comment:

Fib Spiral Support that was holding SPY from falling has definitively broken...

No support below...

Comment:

Note Price line...

Comment:

Is this analysis not accurate...

Keep getting dislikes...

Comment:

Must be snowflakes...

:)

Comment:

Corrected Wave Count above...

Comment:

Market just gave an opportunity to add puts...

Comment:

correction over...

Comment:

Market is about to turn hard...

Comment:

Current Wave count...

Comment:

Current Count (5Min)

Comment:

We did have a complex correction...

Comment:

Complex Corrections imply that the next move (Down) will be strong...

The longer the fall is delayed the worst it becomes...

Both Correction sequences are complete.

Comment:

Look to Fib Spirals for Hypothetical Price-Action...

Comment:

Mr. Pichai will be thrust into the political spotlight when he testifies at his first Congressional hearing on Tuesday. Members of the U.S. House Judiciary Committee are expected to grill the executive on a range of topics, including Google’s handling of user data and its development of a search engine that would comply with China’s strict internet censors. He agreed to GOP requests to appear before the committee prior to the 2018 election.

Comment:

Lawmakers have held hearings in recent months discussing the need for stronger federal protections governing the collection of online data and state attorneys general have begun coordinating a legal strategy to confront tech firms on alleged antitrust violations and over what some Republicans say is a suppression of conservative speech.

Comment:

cultivated powerful political allies such as former President Barack Obama and held sway with both parties in Congress. During the Obama years, Google defeated an antitrust probe by U.S. regulators and secured favorable policies on net neutrality, online liability and copyright issues.

Comment:

like when he traveled to Tennessee in February to attend a groundbreaking of a new data center with GOP Sen. Bob Corker.

Comment:

***Senator Corker NOT seeking re-election

Comment:

Don't fall for the head-fake...

Comment:

We are on the 3rd ABC sequence (Complex Correction)

Comment:

ZigZag-Flat-ZigZag

Comment:

The current ZigZag is in Wave C...

Looking to see what happens when it is completed...

Wave C needs 5 Sub-waves...

Comment:

Counting 5 Sub-waves in C

Corrections over?

Comment:

X marks the beginning of a new corrective sequence (ABC)

Comment:

Corrections look to be over...

Wave developing...

Reminder: Waves can always fail (Miracles can happen)

Based on the Complex Correction the move down should be strong...

Comment:

I think you take away from the companies. All that data they have is put in a public trust. They can use it. And people can opt in and opt out. That trust is run by an independent board of directors. It just can't be that the sole proprietors of this data,” Bannon told CNN’s Reliable Sources newsletter.

Bannon also attacked the executives of Facebook, Twitter, and Google, calling them “sociopaths” and “complete narcissists.”

“These people ought to be controlled, they ought to be regulated,” he said. “These people are evil. There is no doubt about that.”

Source:

Comment:

Notable Flashback - Relevant

Comment:

Complex correction...

X is the beginning of another ABC sequence....

Comment:

Correction...

Not complex...

Did Not pass wave C 264.72

Comment:

EFF, as part of a coalition of over sixty other human rights groups led by Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International —still have questions for Sundar Pichai, Google’s CEO. Leaks and rumors continue to spread from Google about “Project Dragonfly,” a secretive plan to create a censored, trackable search tool for China. Media reports based on sources from within the company have stated that the project was being readied for a rapid launch, even as it was kept secret even from Google’s own security and privacy experts.

These stories undermine the vague answers we were given in previous correspondence. On the eve of Pichai being called before the House Judiciary Committee, we have re-iterated our profound concern, and jointly called upon Google to halt Project Dragonfly completely.

Comment:

But under Pichai’s leadership, Google appears to have ignored not just outside advice; the company has apparently ignored the advice of its own privacy and security experts. An Intercept article based on statements made by four people who worked on Project Dragonfly noted that Google’s head of operations in China “shut out members of the company’s security and privacy team from key meetings about the search engine … and tried to sideline a privacy review of the plan that sought to address potential human rights abuses.”

If that description is accurate, Google is throwing out not just human rights experts and Congress’ own advice regarding its entry into China; it’s throwing away its own engineers’ guidance.

Comment:

Big Drop imminent....

Comment:

Apologies...

Corrected Chart....

Comment:

Flat Correction indicated from Wave A (3 Sub-Waves)

Comment:

B Travels back to A beginning...

C travels back to A Terminal...

Comment:

B comes down to Wave A beginning in 3 Sub-Waves...

Comment:

We are in Wave B now...

Comment:

Next 35 days are going to be very interesting...

Comment:

Wave B complete.

Comment:

Wave C needs 5 Sub-Waves...

Comment:

Fib Extension 0-A-B = Wave C Terminal Targets...

Comment:

Flat correction C Waves usually terminate near the 100% level of Fib Extension 0-A-B

Comment:

Above: Fib Extension 0-A-B

100% Level = Target for Terminal C

Comment:

Pentagon lawyers designing historic military tribunals to try terrorists are poring over history books and legal tomes for guidance.

While U.S. law permits the executive branch to design the commissions with few restrictions, even with little regard to precedent, officials drafting the rules are reportedly keeping history in mind.

Comment:

White House officials say the administration is carefully studying the rules and procedures used at the Nuremberg trials, which resulted in the indictment of scores of Nazi officials and organizations charged with abetting the Nazi effort. The Nuremberg trials were distinct from military tribunals established in the United States in that they used high-ranking civilians as judges.

Comment:

Graham Questions SCOTUS Nominee Kavanaugh:
Link:

24:00 minute mark (Notable)

Comment:

Link to notable old article:

Reminder: POETENTIAL downside, just for my peripheral...

Comment:

C Wave looks to be complete...

Comment:

Preliminary indications are the breach was conducted by hackers affiliated with the Chinese Ministry of State Security, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to reveal information not yet ready for public release. The MSS, an intelligence and security agency, has been behind many of the Chinese government intrusions into sensitive U.S. networks in recent years.
Some U.S. intelligence officials believe that the breach was conducted to enrich the massive Chinese data sets on U.S. and other citizens that have been amassed for years, the people said. Such breaches include the 2015 Office of Personnel Management intrusion, which compromised the personal data of more than 20 million government employees, family members and applicants, and also information collected during Chinese breaches of health care institutions such as Anthem and CareFirst

Comment:

Many in Washington see the Justice Department’s orders and convictions as part of a sincere effort to rid the world of corruption, uphold fair business practices, and check the influence of authoritarian governments. But others will call the department’s collective actions a racist, imperialist crusade to arrest the decline of American influence.

Sabrina Meng ‘issued 7 passports from China and Hong Kong’

This debate will rage on now that Meng’s predicament has the world’s attention. But it is important to be aware that it won’t just be Americans versus Chinese.

As a self-proclaimed expert in the “art of the deal”, Trump is fond of brass-tacks negotiations, and this proclivity requires bargaining chips. So we should expect Meng, Xu or Ho, or perhaps all three of them, to become pawns in the US-China stand-off over the trade imbalance and market access, regardless of how much the Justice Department wants convictions and is seeking to keep a distance from geopolitics.

Comment:

Correction is over....

Comment:

Wave Down beginning...

Comment:

Wave 2 (ABC) retraced 100% of Wave 1

Comment:

Yellow box = Normal Wave 3 Target

Comment:

Sub-wave 3 of Higher Wave 3 extended....

Comment:

****Sub-Wave 3 of Higher Wave 1 extended

Comment:

Sub-Wave 1 + Sub-Wave 3 = Normal

Comment:

Sub-Wave 4 Violated the price area of Sub-Wave 1

Comment:

Either...

1 - Complex Correction
2 - Expanding Diagonal

Comment:

Remember the rule which says that wave 4 in an impulse wave cannot overlap the top of wave 1? Well, there is one exception to this rule. Every now and then, either wave 1 or wave 5 will take the shape of a wedge. Elliott has called this formation a Diagonal Triangle. A diagonal triangle differs from a regular (horizontal) triangle in that it slopes in the direction of the trend. So when the eventual breakout happens, the next move will be in the opposite direction.

Comment:

Hanging by a thread...

Comment:

Need a catalyst...

Comment:

Above: Completed Wave Count...

Comment:

A very high-profile figure has been convicted of a serious crime this week, but suppression orders have prevented Australian media outlets including Daily Mail Australia from reporting on it.

The well-known person has attracted significant media attention throughout their trial, and was only convicted on Tuesday.

The conviction came on the second attempt, after a jury could not decide a verdict during an earlier trial.

The Victorian County Court first brought in the suppression order after the first trial.

Comment:

Watch for the turn...

Comment:

May day...

Comment:

Wave in development...

Comment:

1HR View:

Comment:

Looking very grim....

Comment:

Daily Chart:

Comment:

6 days...

Dec. 17 - Dec. 18

Notable Fib Time

Comment:

Above: Targets

Yellow = Normal

Green = Extension (If it is hit in anyway then Wave 3 is Extending)

Comment:

According to the chart, we are about to get a storm of bad news...

Comment:

A trove of documents on the Clinton Foundation alleging possible pay for play and tax evasion have been turned over to the FBI and IRS by several investigative whistleblowers, who will be testifying in an open hearing before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Thursday, according to the committee and lawmakers.

Roughly 6,000 documents that are expected to reveal the nearly two year investigation by the whistleblowers with a private firm called MDA Analytics LLC, which allegedly turned over the documents more than a year and half ago to the IRS, according to John Solomon, who first published the report last week in The Hill.

The whistleblowers are former federal criminal investigators, who allege that the Clinton Foundation was “engaged in illegal activities and may be liable for millions of dollars in delinquent taxes and penalties,” according to Solomon.

The Department of Justice and the FBI’s Little Rock, Ark. field office, which is believed to be investigating the foundation, have allegedly obtained the documentation from the whistleblowers as well, according to lawmakers who’ve spoken with the whistleblowers.

Comment:

William D. Campbell’s story was first published by this reporter in 2017. He turned over more than 5,000 documents and detailed daily briefs to the bureau when he served as a confidential informant reporting on Russia’s nuclear giant Rosatom. Campbell worked as an energy consultant, gaining the trust of Russians and providing significant insight into Russia’s strategic plans to gain global dominance in the uranium industry. He reported on Russian’s intentions to build a closer relationship with Obama administration officials, to include then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, as reported. The documents he turned over to the DOJ, which were reviewed by this news site, showed Campbell had also provided highly sensitive information both related to the uranium case, as well as other intelligence matters, since 2006.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller was the director of the FBI at the time Campbell was a confidential informant and according to Campbell the information was briefed to Mueller by his FBI handlers.

“(Mueller) received the documents, copies of which I still have, over a period of years and ignored a national security threat to the United States because of his political preference,” said Campbell, who said he is frustrated that the investigation into the Clinton Foundation and the other information he provided was apparently ignored years ago.

“These men were in charge of transport of nuclear materials (inside the United States) while committing criminal activity here in the United States and signing major US utility contracts,” said Campbell, referring to the information he provided the FBI on the American company Transportation Logistics International, also known as TLI, was the primary transport company for Russian enriched uranium sold to the United States.

Comment:

But Rep. Mark Meadows, chairman of the Freedom Caucus and member of the committee, said this time it will be different. He noted that the investigation is apparently ongoing with the FBI and DOJ and believes the information being delivered for Thursday’s hearing to be ‘explosive’ in nature and may help connect the dots.

Meadow’s told Fox New’s Martha MaCallum Tuesday, “the American people, they want to bring some closure, not just a few sound bites, here or there, so we’re going to be having a hearing this week, not only covering over some of those 6,000 pages that you’re talking about, but hearing directly from three whistleblowers that have actually spent the majority of the last two years investigating this.”

Comment:

Reminder of POTENTIAL downside catalyst:
Fed - Death Watch -Rate Schedule -> Corporate Credit
China - 2025 Plan Death Watch
EU - Death Watch
Brexit Disaster
Big Tech Data Collection + Privacy Nightmare
Mueller

Comment:

Price-Action is weak...

Complex Correction looks to be ending...

Comment:

Drifting lower...

Comment:

Watching the beginning...

Comment:

Ignore green arrow...

Higher Wave 1 Target $250.

Comment:

Updated Chart...

Had a complex sequence...

Comment:

Watch the futures...

Fall imminent...

ABC correction just completed...

Comment:

Current Complete Count...

Comment:

Dec. 5th was the beginning of Cycle Wave 3.

Comment:

Correction: Dec. 3rd was the beginning of Cycle Wave 3.

Comment:

Reminder: SPX Chart

Comment:

Cyrpto Market Index Vs. SP500

Short SP 500

Long Crypto

Comment:

S5 Extension trigger broke....

Expect tomorrow to be ugly...

Primary Wave 3 in Higher Cycle Wave 3 is beginning....

Comment:

Review...

Comment:

Key Level:

$253.42 - Triggers extension if broke....

Comment:

$253.79 is the magic number....

Extension Trigger....

Comment:

Primary Wave 3 - Sub-wave 1 looks to be complete....

Comment:

Sub-Wave 2 retrace was weak...

Comment:

S2 retrace = .382

Expect higher degree to retrace .382....

Comment:

Expected Retrace and Correction Time-frame =

.382 = $259.42

Estimate of 24 Hours

Comment:

Primary Wave 3 estimation...

Sub-Wave 1 can be used to get an overall idea of how large the draw-down will be when Primary Wave 3 completes...

We know that 2/3 waves trend near equality...

So we need to measure Sub-Wave 1....

Comment:

Sub-Wave 1 = -5.73%

If Sub-Wave 3 trends near equality with Sub-Wave 1 then another 5.73% down will take us to the price level of $239.01....

We also have to remember the rule that states Wave 3 can never be the shortest wave out of the 3 impulse waves...very important....

Comment:

Review...

Comment:

We are starting to struggle at the .236 level....

Comment:

Correction over...

Wave developing...

Comment:

Reminder: Flynn is very important...

Gen. Michael Flynn advocates for the imprisonment of Hillary Clinton over her use of a private email server as Secretary of State at the 2016 Republican National Convention.
Video:

Flynn's purpose in the Chess Game?

Comment:

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama warned Donald J. Trump against hiring Michael T. Flynn to be part of his national security team when Mr. Obama met with his successor in the Oval Office two days after the November election, two former Obama administration officials said on Monday.

Mr. Obama, who had fired Mr. Flynn as the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told Mr. Trump that he would have profound concerns about Mr. Flynn becoming a top national security aide, said the administration officials, who were briefed on the Oval Office conversation. Mr. Trump later ignored the advice, naming Mr. Flynn to be his national security adviser.

Comment:

Mr. Flynn’s name came up during a broader discussion about personnel issues, the former administration officials said. Mr. Obama’s concerns about Mr. Flynn, which were first reported by NBC News, were largely about his management of the D.I.A. and PREDATED the later concerns about his contacts with the Russian ambassador, Sergey I. Kislyak.

Comment:

Mr. Trump blamed Obama officials on Monday, saying in two Twitter messages that it was his predecessor’s administration that gave Mr. Flynn a security clearance.

“General Flynn was given the highest security clearance by the Obama Administration — but the Fake News seldom likes talking about that,” Mr. Trump said.

Comment:

Source:

Comment:

Key immediate level is $256.27

Comment:

Broke 1.618/$256.27

Comment:

We are about to break....

Comment:

Market must know that the Fed will hike...

Invert yields...

Trigger credit crisis...

Remember Sears, Toy's R US? First Domino?

Comment:

Fed Suicide Watch....

Comment:

$226.06 Key Level...

Comment:

Review...

Comment:

We are clearly in a no support zone...

Comment:

Only strong support starting around 2,193....

Comment:

$2,309.12 triggers an extending 3rd....

Comment:

It is likely that we will trigger an extending 3rd based on sub-wave sets...

Comment:

Correction almost over...

Comment:

Wave 2 Retrace = 100% of Wave 1 = Normal

Comment:

The Trade....

Crypto Market Index Vs. SP 500

Comment:

Wave Developing...

Comment:

We have had a complex correction....

Updated Chart....

Comment:

Flat & ZigZag

Comment:

Ignore Wave 2 retrace call out....

Comment:

DOUBLE DOWN ON SHORTS!

Comment:

ZigZag Wave C - Potential Terminal $259.41

Comment:

ZigZag is complete...

Wave Developing...

Comment:

BOOM.

:)

Comment:

MIC DROP...

Comment:

Final nail in the coffin for the FEDERAL RESERVE.

Comment:

Wave 1 & 3 are Normal

Comment:

1/3 impulse waves usually extend.

Expect a 5th Wave Extension...

Comment:

246.07 = 5th Wave Extension Trigger

Comment:

WASHINGTON — The Chinese government has detained a third Canadian citizen, escalating a diplomatic crisis in which it is pushing the United States to relent on legal pressure against one of China’s leading technology companies.

Canadian consular officials are providing assistance to the family of the latest detainee, a spokesman for Global Affairs Canada, the country’s foreign ministry, said on Wednesday. The spokesman declined to identify the detainee or provide more details.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Hua Chunying, said at a regularly scheduled news conference in Beijing on Wednesday that the ministry had no information on the case.

Chinese security agencies detained two other Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, on Dec. 10. Chinese officials have suggested in public comments that the agencies are looking into potential national security charges.

Comment:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada said on Wednesday that the third case did not appear to be related to the other two.

Comment:

But on Dec. 13, the Chinese ambassador to Canada, Lu Shaye, explicitly tied the actions when he wrote in an op-ed in the Globe and Mail: “Those who accuse China of detaining some person in retaliation for the arrest of Ms. Meng should first reflect on the actions of the Canadian side. It is both ignominious and hypocritical to revile China with double standards.”

Comment:

Mr. Spavor was running a travel business that took people to North Korea, and had helped arrange a trip by Dennis Rodman, the former basketball player, to Pyongyang, where Mr. Rodman met with Kim Jong-un, the young North Korean leader.

Comment:

***Connect the dots...

Comment:

Source:

Comment:

Spavor, who is in his early forties and from Calgary in Alberta, first became intrigued by North Korea during a short stay in Seoul in the late 1990s, and lived in Pyongyang for a time in 2005 while working for a Canadian NGO.

Comment:

Spavor focuses on introducing foreign businesses to the North, which is subject to multiple sets of sanctions over its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes.

Comment:

Michael Spavor is among only a handful of Westerners who met Kim Jong Un between his inheriting power in the North in 2011 and this year's Singapore summit with Donald Trump.

He was instrumental in arranging visits by former Chicago Bull Dennis Rodman to Pyongyang, where the player known as The Worm struck up an unlikely friendship with Kim, on one occasion singing him "Happy Birthday".

Spavor has been pictured sitting next to Kim, sharing cigarettes and cocktails on board the North Korean leader's private yacht, moored off the country's east coast.

Other images show the two grinning broadly, or shaking hands.

Comment:

Source:

Comment:

FLASHBACK:

An ousted ambassador, suspended flights, and the recall of thousands of Saudi students in Canada. These are just a few diplomatic sanctions Saudi Arabia has imposed on Canada in the wake of a tweet over jailed Saudi activists by Canadian officials.

Comment:

The Saudi Kingdom was less than thrilled about Canada’s “interference”, saying it had no business to meddle in its domestic affairs.

Since Monday, the Middle Eastern country began imposing a flurry of diplomatic sanctions starting with the expulsion of the Canadian ambassador, Dennis Horak, who was deemed “persona non grata” on Twitter by Saudi officials, giving him 24 hours to leave the Gulf country. In tandem, the Saudi ambassador to Canada would also be recalled in light of the spat.

Then, the Saudi government announced it would freeze new trade and investment with Canada. All flights to and from Toronto would be suspended starting August 13, according to state airline, Saudia Airlines.

Next, came as a blow to Saudi exchange students studying in Canada on state-sponsored scholarship programmes, which have been suspended. This could affect 16,000 students who've been urged to study elsewhere. At McGill University, in Montreal, it said they currently have 327 students enrolled from Saudia Arabia.

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***Canada’s role in the Chess Game?

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NOW:

Saudi Arabia has fallen behind in making payments on its $15-billion arms deal with Canada, a contract that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said he’s looking for ways to halt.

The Saudi government was short $1.8 billion in payments to the end of September for light-armoured vehicles assembled at General Dynamics Land Systems Canada (GDLS) in London, according to financial statements from the Canadian Commercial Corp., the federal Crown corporation overseeing the controversial contract.

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Source:

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Flashback Source:

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***Watch Geo-politics...

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Cycle Wave 1 = -11.60%

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Cycle Wave 2 = +8.22%

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Cycle Wave 3 = -11.50% (Not Complete)

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99.99% sure we will have an extending 5th Wave here...

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$246.07 will be broken...

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Just broke the critical 246.07 level

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Cycle Wave 3 Terminal Target = $209.13

Time-frame: 24 days 21 hours

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Correction over...

Wave developing...

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Review...

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Still in Cycle Wave 3/Primary Wave 3...

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Yellow Box = Cycle Wave 3 (Normal)
-$226.06 Extension Trigger
Blue Box = Primary Wave 3 (Normal)
-$233.70 Extension Trigger

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Have a good weekend!

Watch Futures...

Watch Geo-politics...

Watch Government Shutdown...

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Current Wave:

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***Moves on the Chess Board...

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Because you have the right to a Secretary of Defense whose views are better aligned with yours on these and other subjects, I believe it is right for me to step down from my position. The end date for my tenure is February 28, 2019, a date that should allow sufficient time for a successor to be nominated and confirmed as well as to make sure the Department’s interests are properly articulated and protected at upcoming events to include Congressional posture hearings and the NATO Defense Ministerial meeting in February. Further, that a full transition to a new Secretary of Defense occurs well in advance of the transition of Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in September in order to ensure stability within the Department.

Remember the Hypothetical of Team A and Team B?

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Current Count:

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Reminder: Key Extension Level broke - 246.07

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Fasten Seat Belts...

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Sub-Wave Sequences are indicating $233.70 will be broken...

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Review:

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Orange Box = Minor Wave 3 Terminal Target

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234.14 Triggers Extending Minor Wave 3...

233.70 Triggers Extending Primary Wave 3...

226.06 Triggers Extending Cycle Wave 3...

Comment:

234.14 breaking will trigger a domino effect...

234.14 breaking will break 233.70...

233.70 breaking will break 226.06...

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Current Sub-Wave Count:

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Also, important to note...

Analysis successfully hit first target of $240!!!!!

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Happy Holidays to All!

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s Treasury secretary called top U.S. bankers on Sunday amid an ongoing rout on Wall Street and made plans to convene a group of officials known as the “Plunge Protection Team.”

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U.S. stocks have fallen sharply in recent weeks on concerns over slowing economic growth, with the S&P 500 index .SPX on pace for its biggest percentage decline in December since the Great Depression.

“Today I convened individual calls with the CEOs of the nation’s six largest banks,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Twitter shortly before financial markets were due to open in Asia.

Comment:

The Treasury said in a statement that Mnuchin talked with the chief executives of Bank of America (BAC.N), Citi (C.N), Goldman Sachs (GS.N), JP Morgan Chase (JPM.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Wells Fargo (WFC.N).

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The group, which was also convened in 2009 during the latter stage of the financial crisis, includes officials from the Federal Reserve as well as the Securities and Exchange Commission.

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Wall Street is also closely following reports that Trump has privately discussed the possibility of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Mnuchin said on Saturday Trump told him he had “never suggested firing” Powell.

Trump has criticized the U.S. central bank for raising interest rates this year, which could further dampen economic growth. The Fed’s independence is seen as a pillar of the U.S. financial system.

Comment:

Mnuchin’s calls come as a range of asset classes have suffered steep losses.

In December alone, the S&P 500 .SPX is down nearly 12.5 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC has slumped 13.6 percent. The Nasdaq is now in a bear market, having declined nearly 22 percent from its record high in late August, and the S&P is not far off that level.

Comment:

Corporate credit markets have been under duress as well, and measures of the investment grade corporate bond market are poised for their worst yearly performance since the 2008 financial crisis.

The high-yield bond market, where companies with the weakest credit profiles raise capital, has not seen a deal all month. The last time that happened was in November 2008.

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Source:

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Chief Justice John Roberts stayed a contempt order in a case that likely arose from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation on Sunday night.

Roberts’ order could mark the first time that the Supreme Court has intervened in the Mueller inquiry.

Very little is known of the case, which reached the justices on Saturday, because the matter has proceeded through the federal courts under seal, meaning strict confidentiality prevails over every detail.

The scant facts which are available about the case are these: a grand jury issued a subpoena to an unnamed company owned by a foreign government some time during the summer of 2018. That firm, referred to in court filings as “the corporation” has been fighting the subpoena in federal court since August.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit released one of the few public filings in the matter on Dec. 18. Since the entity is owned by a foreign government, it sought to quash the subpoena under the protections of the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act. The D.C. Circuit rejected those arguments, and found that the corporation must comply with the subpoena.

The company appealed that decision to the Supreme Court Saturday. The corporation faces a fine for every day that it fails to abide by the subpoena. (RELATED: Roberts Joins Liberals, Thwarts Trump Bid To Enforce New Asylum Rules)

Roberts’ Sunday night decision temporarily halts the non-compliance fines.

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The Department of Justice must submit a response to the foreign company’s application by Dec. 31.

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Though Mueller’s connection to the case has not been definitively established, several facts indicate the special counsel’s involvement: CNN saw senior Mueller lawyers return to the Justice Department immediately after the conclusion of a recent secret hearing in the matter — an entire floor of the courthouse where that proceeding was taking place was sealed, a highly unusual move.

Comment:

The case has moved through the federal courts at an unusual clip. Very few disputes reach the Supreme Court just four months after they arose in a trial court, as is true here.

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Source:

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Price-Action is extremely poor...

Watch the Extension Levels...

$234.14 is the key level to watch...

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$234.14 key level definitively broke...

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Option three: Mnuchin has some troubling insider knowledge, and he wanted to broadcast to the markets that he is aware and in charge. Maybe some financial firms are teetering? Maybe rising interest rates and falling asset prices are straining some important market participants, and it just has not yet become evident in public reports?
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Daily Review:

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Still in Cycle Wave 3....

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Still in Primary Wave 3 as well....

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Estimated Terminal for Cycle Wave 3 = $219-$222

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Minor and Primary Extension Levels for an Extending 3rd Wave have been broken...

Cycle Wave 3 Extension Level for an Extending 3rd = $226.06

Highly likely $226.06 will be broken...

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Current Sub-Wave Count:

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Also, Fib Extension level 1.382 from Cycle Wave 1 & Wave 2 has been broken...

1.382 Level = 234.11

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$226.06 is now the key level to watch...

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Wish I had better news...

But, Price-action is still extremely poor...

Cycle Wave 3 looks like it will extend...

Primary Wave 3 is getting closer to being completed but it still has to complete waves 4 & 5....

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Minuscule S5 Target = $227.77 - $221.55

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Current Count...

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Review:

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Sub-Wave Count:

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Correction looks to be over....

Wave Developing...

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Watch $226.91...

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Added Fib Time to Cycle Wave 3....

Estimated to be complete in 6-7 days....

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Primary Wave 3 could be complete...

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But, we have to remember the extension levels were broken....

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Not ready to label Primary Wave 3 Complete yet...

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Terminal Primary Wave 3 expected between $233.13 & $226.91...

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And, we still need to complete Primary Waves 4 and 5 in Cycle Wave 3...

This is why I believe we will have an extended Cycle Wave 3...

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Price-Action is actually worse than originally anticipated...

Might have to lower my second target of $210...

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Added Spiral for possible primary wave 3 terminal...

Dotted light blue line...

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Key Fib Time Dates:

Jan. 2nd

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Jan. 11th

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Jan. 21st

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Still in Cycle Wave 3...

Still in Primary Wave 3...

Minor Wave 4 has completed...

Minor Wave 5 is beginning now...

When Minor Wave 5 completes then Primary Wave 3 will be complete....

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Correction is over...

Always have to watch for Complex Corrections...

Complex Corrections are multiple ABC sequences after a Wave Sequence....

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Don't fall for the head-fake...just a correction...

We have a long way to go...

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We have a long way to go....

Cycle Wave 1 & 2 are complete....

Cycle Wave 3 is still not complete...

Primary Wave 3 in Cycle Wave 3 is still not complete...

This Cycle Wave Sequence is estimated to last till June 2019....

Comment:

Everyone is missing the bigger picture of WHY the market is selling off..

Think big....

Think Macro...

Think on a country basis...

World is fundamentally changing...

Re-read analysis...

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DHS OIG Issued 89 New Reports in FY2018, Referred 202 Cases for Prosecution

The Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Inspector General uncovered more than $175.1 million in questioned costs and more than $58.7 million in recovered assets, according to a year-in-review recap for fiscal year 2018.

OIG sent out the information on Wednesday. Due to the partial government shutdown, only the conclusions of the OIG’s report were available and not the report itself.

As a result of the 89 new reports that the OIG issued in FY2018, 202 cases were referred for prosecution, 133 federal employees and contractors were indicted, 204 were arrested and 76 were convicted. Of the reports, 318 recommendations were issued, 51 were accepted for prosecution and 44 were declined for prosecution.

The investigations included a DHS employee who left sensitive documentation on a commercial airliner, a DHS OIG manager accused of committing insurance fraud and a U.S. Secret Service manager who “failed to follow Secret Service procedures regarding the inventory and disposal of evidence, misused seized property, and provided inaccurate information to the Secret Service when questioned regarding the matter,” according to an OIG report issued earlier this month.

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Link to DHS OIG press release:

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Inside Trump's Guantanamo, where military waits for funding for 'enduring mission'
In his first broadcast interview, Guantanamo's Rear Adm. John Ring says without funding from Congress, he'll have trouble caring for aging detainees.

GUANTÁNAMO BAY, Cuba — The newest commander of the U.S. mission in Guantanamo Bay has orders from the Pentagon to stay open for another 25 years and to prepare for new detainees, but he lacks the funding from Congress to pay for it.

In an exclusive interview with NBC News inside one of the detention camps, Rear Admiral John Ring said he waits for word from Washington about whether he will need to expand and if he will have the money to pay it.

The Obama administration's stated goal was to close Guantanamo Bay Prison, or Gitmo. Under President Donald Trump, the detention camp for alleged terrorists is now an "enduring mission," and the Pentagon has asked officials here to plan to stay open another 25 years.

Expanding population?

Funding needs for Gitmo are likely to grow if guards are asked to take in more detainees. So far, the Trump administration has left open this possibility but has made no decision over who to transfer there or when to do it.

Ring says with his current staffing, he could accommodate 40 more detainees. With more funding and staff, he could take in 160. But he worries about an unfunded mandate if the Trump administration decides to drastically increase the population without Congress approving the funding.

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***Backstory...

***How many Generals did Obama (Code name = Renegade) purge?

FLASHBACK: Obama's Military Coup Purges 197 Officers In Five Years

Defense: What the president calls "my military" is being cleansed of any officer suspected of disloyalty to or disagreement with the administration on matters of policy or force structure, leaving the compliant and fearful.

We recognize President Obama is the commander-in-chief and that throughout history presidents from Lincoln to Truman have seen fit to remove military commanders they view as inadequate or insubordinate. Turnover in the military ranks is normal, and in these times of sequestration and budget cuts the numbers are expected to tick up as force levels shrink and missions change.

Yet what has happened to our officer corps since President Obama took office is viewed in many quarters as UNPRECEDENTED, baffling and even harmful to our national security posture. We have commented on some of the higher profile cases, such as Gen. Carter Ham. He was relieved as head of U.S. Africa Command after only a year and a half because he disagreed with orders not to mount a rescue mission in response to the Sept. 11, 2012, attack in Benghazi.

Rear Adm. Chuck Gaouette, commander of the John C. Stennis Carrier Strike Group, was relieved in October 2012 for disobeying orders when he sent his group on Sept. 11 to "assist and provide intelligence for" military forces ordered into action by Gen. Ham.

Other removals include the sacking of two nuclear commanders in a single week — Maj. Gen. Michael Carey, head of the 20th Air Force, responsible for the three wings that maintain control of the 450 intercontinental ballistic missiles, and Vice Adm. Tim Giardina, the No. 2 officer at U.S. Strategic Command.

From Breitbart.com's Facebook page comes a list of at least 197 officers that have been relieved of duty by President Obama for a laundry list of reasons and sometimes with no reason given.

Nine senior commanding generals have been fired by the Obama administration this year, leading to speculation by active and retired members of the military that a purge of its commanders is under way.

Retired U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Paul Vallely, an outspoken critic of the Obama administration, notes how the White House fails to take action or investigate its own officials but finds it easy to fire military commanders "who have given their lives for their country." Vallely thinks he knows why this purge is happening.

"Obama will not purge a civilian or political appointee because they have bought into Obama's ideology," Vallely said. "The White House protects their own. That's why they stalled on the investigation into Fast and Furious, Benghazi and ObamaCare. He's intentionally weakening and gutting our military, Pentagon and reducing us as a superpower, and anyone in the ranks who disagrees or speaks out is being purged."

Another senior retired general told TheBlaze on the condition of anonymity, because he still provide services to the government and fears possible retribution, that "they're using the opportunity of the shrinkage of the military to get rid of people that don't agree with them or do not toe the party line. Remember, as (former White House chief of staff) Rahm Emanuel said, never waste a crisis."

For President Obama, the military of a once-feared superpower is an anachronistic vestige of an America whose exceptionalism and world leadership require repeated apologies. It must be gutted and fundamentally transformed into a force wearing gender-neutral headgear only useful for holding the presidential umbrella when it rains. It is to be "his" military and used only for "his" purposes.

Source:

Comment:

Retrace confirmed Primary Wave 3 is Complete in Cycle Wave 3....

Wave 4 almost always retraces to the .382 level...

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Primary Wave 5 in Cycle Wave 3 will begin shortly...

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Above: Added Fib Time to Cycle Wave 3....

Primary Wave 5 is estimated to begin in the next 5 days...

Cycle Wave 3 is estimated to be completed January....

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Target for Primary Wave 5 in Cycle Wave 3....

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Note how Primary Wave 5 Target breaks Cycle Wave 3 Extension line...

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C Wave = 5 Sub-Waves

Only counting 2....

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I believe we have 5 Sub-Waves for Wave C....

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New Wave Sequence should be developing...

Primary Wave 5 in Cycle Wave 3....

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Minuscule Sub-wave sequence developed...

Retrace to the .382 level expected...

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How can we spot the end of a correction? A correction is usually made up of three waves, but the key thing to note is the last wave within a correction should be made up of five waves (for example, if the correction is made up of waves a, b and c, then wave c will be made up of 5 waves). So if you can see a fifth wave finishing on the way up, you are getting close to the end of that move, right?

Next, you watch the market very closely, waiting for a tiny five wave rally. When you get a 3 wave correction of that rally, you will immediately jump on board.

Where will you place your stop-loss order? It will be just below the starting point of the tiny five wave move you spotted. Why? Remember the rule that wave 2 can never go below the start of wave 1? That is why.

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Review: Cycle Wave Sequence

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Review: Primary Waves in Cycle Wave 3

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Key Levels

1. $226.07
2. $222.89

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A Holiday Mystery: Why Did John Roberts Intervene in the Mueller Probe?

We’re about to find out why the chief justice of the Supreme Court decided to get involved in the special counsel’s investigation.

Comment:

mysterious grand jury subpoena case has been working itself through the D.C. courts since August. Doughty reporting by Politico linked the grand jury case to special counsel Robert Mueller. Some of us, connecting the dots, wondered whether Mueller’s antagonist in this secret subpoena battle might be President Donald Trump himself. Speculation heightened two weeks ago when the D.C. Circuit cleared an entire floor of reporters assembled for the oral argument, in order to protect the identity of the litigants.

Comment:

This month's three-page summary D.C. Circuit decision revealed a fairly dry set of legal issues that just might conceal a juicy core. The dry issues involved matters of jurisdiction and statutory interpretation fathomed only by elite appellate lawyers, but the potentially juicier underlying issues hinted of fascination: Somewhere, a corporation (a bank? a communications firm? an energy company?) owned by a foreign state (Russia? Turkey? Ukraine? United Arab Emirates? Saudi Arabia?) had engaged in transactions that had an impact in the United States and on matters involved in the special counsel’s investigation.

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Intriguingly, the decision revealed that a regulator from Country A had filed a submission claiming that compliance with the subpoena would cause the Corporation to violate Country A’s law. So whoever Country A is, this matter captured its officials’ attention and prompted them to send filings to a faraway country to block the subpoena. Why does Country A care? And, what is it trying to hide?

Comment:

So, from the D.C. Circuit's decision we learned that a foreign government was actively involved in blocking Mueller’s investigation. That fact is intriguing enough. In the ordinary course, that should have been the end of it. The state-owned Corporation filed an appeal with the Supreme Court, which receives roughly 7,000 petitions a year but acts in fewer than 200 of them. There was unanimity below — all four judges (the District Court judge and the three Circuit Court judges) had agreed that the Corporation and Country A’s legal claims of sovereign immunity and of contrary foreign law were without merit. There was little reason for judicial watchers to expect anything beyond a quiet return to the grand jury and further proceedings there. We headed off for the holidays.

Comment:

And then came Roberts’ surprise Sunday decision. He is the “circuit justice” for the D.C. Circuit, meaning he is the justice assigned to receive emergency and other petitions arising from that circuit. Under Supreme Court rules, the circuit justice may act without consulting his or her colleagues to dispose of routine rulings.

Comment:

So rather than consigning this appeal to the discard pile with thousands of others, he has blocked the lower courts’ decisions until he can receive the government’s briefs defending those decisions. Those papers must be filed no later than New Year’s Eve.

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***No Later than New Years Eve...

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Once he receives the full briefing, he can reject the Corporation’s appeal or he can advance the matter to the full court for consideration.

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Until then, we can only wonder at the remarkable circumstance that the chief justice of the United States has personally intervened, at the request of a foreign government through its corporate entity, in Mueller’s investigation.

Comment:

What are we to make of his pre-Christmas intervention on behalf of Country A and the Corporation, and against Mueller’s office? We may know soon. Mueller’s office filed its submission early, on Friday evening. We’ll keep our eyes glued to the docket.

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Source:

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***Is Country A an Ally or Foe?

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Cooped up in the White House after canceling a vacation to his private Florida club, President Donald Trump fired Twitter barbs at Democrats on Saturday as talks to end a week-long partial government shutdown remained at a stalemate.

Comment:

there has been little direct contact between the sides during the stalemate, and Trump did not ask Republicans, who hold a monopoly on power in Washington for another five days, to keep Congress in session.

Comment:

Trump earlier had upped the brinkmanship by threatening anew to close the border with Mexico to press Congress to cave to his demand for money to pay for a wall. Democrats are vowing to pass legislation restoring the government as soon as they take control of the House on Thursday, but that won’t accomplish anything unless Trump and the Republican-controlled Senate go along with it.

Now Democratic leaders are adamant that they will not authorize money for the project, calling it wasteful and ineffective. They show no signs of bending, either.

The White House has not directly engaged in weeks with the House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi, who has all but locked up the support she needs to win the speaker’s gavel after the new Congress convenes on Thursday.

Pelosi has vowed to pass legislation to reopen the nine shuttered departments and dozens of agencies now hit by the partial shutdown as soon as she takes the gavel.

Comment:

‘That the mystery subpoena could relate to several countries is itself what is significant’
Alex Whiting, professor at Harvard Law School, and former federal prosecutor with the Criminal Section of the Civil Rights Division and the US Attorney’s Office in Boston.

Comment:

From the few clues that we have, it seems likely that the subpoena at issue pertains to the Mueller investigation, but it is difficult to know what corporation or company it involves. And that is perhaps what is most striking about this episode: it underscores the broad reach and scope of the Mueller investigation.

Comment:

Two possibilities seem realistic’
Paul Rosenzweig, Senior Fellow, R Street Institute, and former senior counsel to Kenneth Starr during the Whitewater investigation.

The official answer is, of course, that nobody knows for sure. But since we are speculating, here are a few pretty interesting clues: 1) The corporation almost certainly doesn’t do a lot of business in the US. If it did, it would be much less likely (and able) to resist. So it’s an overseas organization. 2) It really is owned by a foreign nation—the way the court’s opinion is written suggests that the idea of foreign sovereign immunity was not a make-weight fiction, but a realistic argument. 3) A weaker inference is that the nation controlling the corporation is unfriendly to the US. If they were a close ally they would have given up the information more readily. And 4) It’s relevant to Mueller’s investigation, so it’s unlikely, for example, that the country involved is China, even though it fits the rest of the profile, because nothing related to China appears to be in Mueller’s remit (at least not that we know of publicly).

Comment:

‘This could relate to Russia, Turkey, or UAE’
Barbara McQuade, professor at University of Michigan Law School, and former United States Attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan.

The substance of this opinion is somewhat of a mystery because of the secrecy rules that surround grand jury matters. All we know is that a company that is owned by a foreign government has been subpoenaed to produce documents and now compelled by the court to comply with the subpoena.

Comment:

The documents at issue are likely business records of some sort that could shed light on any area of investigation. A grand jury subpoena may be used if there is a reasonable possibility that the information sought is relevant to an investigation. Without seeing the subpoena, it is impossible to know who or what is involved.

Comment:

The mystery corporation’s argument is similar to those ‘advanced by Chinese banks’
Nick Akerman, former federal prosecutor in the Southern District of New York and member of the Watergate prosecution team.

My most informed guess is that this was a subpoena for documents from a bank in China or another country that owns a bank and has a branch office in the United States. It would appear that Mueller served a subpoena on a bank in the US (the Corporation) that is the branch of a foreign bank owned by the foreign government in order to obtain records maintained in the bank outside of the US.

The Circuit Court reviewed an “ex parte submission” from the government, presumably Mueller’s office, and found that it “satisfied its burden of establishing a reasonable probability that this ‘action is based upon . . . an act outside the territory of the United States in connection with a commercial activity of the foreign state elsewhere’ and that the act cause a direct effect in the United States.”

The other clue is the claim by “the Corporation” that complying with the subpoena “would require the Corporation to violate Company A’s law.” This is typically the argument advanced by Chinese banks in opposing US civil and criminal subpoenas for customer information held in China. A similar argument might also apply to other countries with state-owned banks.

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The economic wizards at the Fed again raised interest rates on Tuesday. Their cracker jack logic for doing so is to steer America on a course toward recession so they have the tools in hand to end the recession that they themselves created. Can anyone tell us who’s on first?

Worse, this Fed move doubles down on its blunderous interest rate rise in September. President Trump turned out to be exactly right: The central bank pull-back on money would slow growth and crush the stock market in order to combat nonexistent inflation.

The Fed reduced the monetary thrust that it provides to the economy eight times since Dec. 15, 2015, by raising its Fed Funds interest rate from 0.25 percent to 2.25 percent. Each time, the Fed claimed that it needed to guard our economic airliner from inflationary “overheating” — as if its job is to prevent too many people from working and making sure that pay checks aren’t rising too quickly.

On Wednesday, Dec. 19, despite the numerous market-based alarms that were sounding in the cockpit, Chairman Jerome Powell and his co-pilots on the Federal Open Market Committee, a committee within the Federal Reserve System, is charged under the United States law with overseeing the nation’s open market operations.

FOMC voted to raise the Fed Funds rate to 2.50 percent. This sucks more dollars out of the economy at a time when the world is demanding more dollars — thanks to Mr. Trump’s tax cutting and deregulation policies.

Since its peak on Oct. 3, which, not coincidentally, was right after Mr. Powell gave a speech suggesting that the Fed might be through tightening money, the Dow has fallen by more than 3,500 points. Market fears about his bad judgment have cut the value of all U.S. stocks by about $4.5 trillion...

The Fed economists use twisted logic that the economy is “strong enough” to absorb the rate hikes — which is simply an admission that their policy will slow growth.

And for what purpose? Since the last rate hike the economy has slipped into an anti-growth deflationary cycle with commodity prices — oil, copper, cotton, lead, steel, silver among others — falling by about 10 percent. The new Fed policy is sure to accelerate the deflation, and farmers, ranchers, coal miners, oil and gas drillers will get further crunched by the dollar shortage.

Can someone at the Fed Temple please explain how falling commodity prices indicates inflation? Inflation is too many dollars chasing too few goods.

The commodities index is about the only read-out that a monetary pilot truly needs.

And, right now, the CRB Index is blaring “Pull up! Pull up!”

Mr. Powell warned of a slowing economy in 2019 — but he failed to acknowledge that the headwinds the economy is facing are the drag the Fed is itself creating.

What is to be done now? Mr. Trump wants to fire the Fed chairman, though it is doubtful he has the authority to do that. Much better for Mr. Powell to do the honorable thing and admit that his policies have had disastrous economic and financial consequences and resign.

If not this, at least Mr. Powell should hold an emergency meeting of the Federal Reserve Board and immediately cancel the rate hikes. Better yet, the Fed should announce ways to inject money into the dollar-starved economy.

For much of the past two decades, America’s economic problems of slow growth and flat wages were due to the drag of fiscal and regulatory mistakes. Now at the very moment in time when we finally have a president who is slashing tax rates and regulations and is making America a much more business-friendly nation, the Fed’s monetary policy has come unhinged.

We are now suffering the financial ramifications of this “pilot error” on the part of Mr. Powell.

Time for a new pilot at the Fed.

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HAPPY NEW YEARS EVE TO ALL!!!

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Still in Cycle Wave 3...

Beginning Primary Wave 5 in Cycle Wave 3 now...

Comment:

Remember January Key Fib Time Dates:

2nd

11th

21st

Comment:

Strong moves are likely to occur around those dates...

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Corrected Chart...

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Like I have said previously, I’m not 100% sure we are at the end of the super-millennium cycle...

But, I always like to remember that chart...

Comment:

I think we are about to begin a new Grand Super-Cycle but I think we have a lot of pain to go through...

It will take awhile to set-up the new global supply chain...

A lot of change is underway...

Comment:

The Stage is set for 2019.

Mueller Investigation...

Brexit...

Europe on edge...Banks?

Federal Reserve....

China...

Corporate Credit...

Oil...

Crypto...

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Big Tech...

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Welcome to 2019...

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Italy starts a national blockchain board, names 30 experts

National governments are starting to wake up to the potential of blockchain technology, and they have realized they need to understand it better, or be left in the past. On December 27, Italy announced it had assembled 30 experts to help develop a strategy for the country.

The experts come from a broad range of Italian industries, including prominent business people, academics, lawyers, computer scientists, and just about anyone who understands something about blockchain or cryptocurrency. A visit to the Ministry of Economic Development’s announcement provides a complete list, along with biographies of each member.

Italy has had a keen eye towards blockchain technology for some time now. Early this year, the Ministry of Economy and Finance got ahead of most of the world in its move to investigate digital currencies and begin proposing regulation. They’ve also been keen to protect their citizens from crypto scams, cracking down on three start-ups last month for operating without a license, and suspending two other projects for being potentially fraudulent.

Not many politicians can speak to the potential of blockchain, but deputy prime minister Luigi Di Maio can, and he previously stated: “Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and blockchain are destined to radically change our lives, the society in which we live and the economic and productive fabric of the country. We have to decide which way to go.”

This 30 expert panel is named just weeks after seven European countries met and agreed to explore using distributed ledger technology to advance their nations. An exciting bit from that agreement stated: “We believe that it is a responsibility of the governments to ensure that their citizens fully understand the potential of emerging technologies and therefore promote and encourage educational programs on such technologies at all levels.”

Comment:

Source:

Comment:

I rarely make predictions – whether of election results or anything else. My policy has always been to say what I believe should be done, not what will be done.

I am making an exception with regard to America in 2019.

2019 will be a dark year in America.

Thanks to the left’s control of the House of Representatives and the news media, Americans will be kept in a fevered state throughout 2019 – with innumerable hearings, exposés, criminal investigations and possible indictments of those around the president and the president himself. Truth will not be the point. Defamation will. Anything that might muddy the president, no matter how spurious, no matter how thin the evidence, will be pursued with gusto. The media will drop “bombshell” after “bombshell.” If lives and careers are ruined, so much the better; no one should be associating with this president anyway, as far as the left is concerned. The Robert Mueller investigation into alleged “collusion” between the Trump campaign and the Russian government – which has led to guilty pleas and imprisonment of people around President Trump for offenses having nothing to do with such collusion – is a preview of what lies ahead.

The goal of the left to weaken, disable and impeach the president is the heart of its mission to undo the 2016 presidential election. If the Republicans had done anything comparable during the Obama administration, the Democrats and the media would not only have charged Republicans with racism – as they labeled all criticism of Barack Obama – they would have howled “fascism.” And, for once, they wouldn’t have been far from the truth. The misuse of government institutions for political ends is indeed a fascist tactic. But because most media serve as the propaganda arm of the Democratic Party, there will be no protest from the media, only support.

There is nothing Trump or any member of his administration has done that is comparable to Hillary Clinton’s use of her own email server while U.S. secretary of state, or her destroying tens of thousands of emails after they were subpoenaed by Congress, or foreign governments’ and corporations’ paying vast sums of money to Bill Clinton and The Clinton Foundation while Hillary Clinton was secretary of state. Nor is there anything Trump or anyone in his administration has done comparable to the Obama administration’s use of the IRS to suppress conservative nonprofits; its selling guns to Mexican drug cartels, at least one of which was later found at the scene where a Border Patrol officer was killed; or the lies it told about the cause of the murder of a U.S. ambassador and three other Americans in Benghazi. Yet any suggestion by Republicans that these activities be investigated is effectively shouted down by the Democrats and the media. And let’s not talk about the real collusion in 2016 – between the FBI, the State Department, the Clinton campaign and the Obama White House, using material sourced in part from the Russian government – to undermine the Republican candidate for president and his presidency

Source:

Comment:

Extreme Turbulence in-bound...

Fasten seat belts...

Remain Calm...

2019 will be a Thriller...

Comment:

VIX/SPX

Comment:

Cycle Wave 3/Primary Wave 5 has begun...

The Sub-Waves of Cycle Wave 3 suggest it will extend and break the 1.618 level...

2nd Target in Analysis is $2,100 or SPY $210...

Comment:

Sub-Wave 1 Extended....

Higher Degree likely to extend...

Comment:

Strong move down imminent...

Comment:

Tiny Bearish Leading Diagonal...

Comment:

Looks like the fall will line up with Fib Time...

02 Jan 20:30...

Comment:

The fall meaning a new wave sequence...

Comment:

Watch the futures...

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Apple cuts holiday sales forecast on iPhone and China weakness, stock falls 8%

Fears of weakness at Apple Inc. proved true Wednesday.

The tech giant, which became the only public U.S. company to reach a $1 trillion valuation last year before a fourth-quarter collapse for its shares, confirmed the fears that led to the stock decline by lowering its forecast Wednesday afternoon. In a letter to shareholders, Chief Executive Tim Cook said that Apple will report much lower sales than previously expected, largely due to slowing iPhone sales and pressure in China.

“While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China,” Cook wrote. “In fact, most of our revenue shortfall to our guidance, and over 100% of our year-over-year world-wide revenue decline, occurred in Greater China across iPhone, Mac and iPad.”

Apple’s AAPL, -7.20% stock was halted in after-hours trading ahead of the announcement, then fell about 8% in immediate late trading after the halt was removed. Shares were mostly showing declines of 7% to 8% for the first half hour after trading resumed. The stock has dropped 31.1% in the past three months, as the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.13% has declined 14.3%.

“Lower than anticipated iPhone revenue, primarily in Greater China, accounts for all of our revenue shortfall to our guidance and for much more than our entire year-over-year revenue decline,” Cook said Wednesday in his letter.

Source:

Comment:

Key Fib Time Date:

January 2nd : Apple Announces Cut in Holiday Sales Forecast...

Comment:

Next Key Fib Time date in January is the 11th...

Comment:

At least 19 days left in Cycle Wave 3...

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Analysis is about to be complete...

Comment:

$210 Target will be hit within Cycle Wave 3...

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Above: Hypothetical Wave Sequence...

Comment:

The Cycle Wave Sequence is complete enough to get a good overall picture of where price target will be for Waves 3, 4, and 5.

Comment:

Above is a scenario where Wave 1 and Wave 5 trend near equality...

Comment:

I was not kidding when I said CRASH!

Pain is coming...

Comment:

Sub-Wave 3 extended (Broke 1.618/246.47 - Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension 0-1-2)

Comment:

Sub-Wave 5 Target Area = .382-.618 = Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension 0-3-4

Comment:

.382 = 245.43

.618 = $243.75

Breaking .618/$243.75 will trigger an extending 5th...

Comment:

Add Fib Spirals to Wave Count to see price-action trends and hypothetical price-action...

Add Fib Time to Wave Count to see key time-frames for hypothetical points in time that our likely to see either a strong move or reversal in trend...

Wave Count + Fib Spirals + Fib Time = Trifecta

Comment:

Great Example of Lower and Higher Degree Wave Correlation...

Comment:

Lower Leading Diagonal (Green Minuscule Wave Sequence) down implied there would be a Higher Degree (Purple Wave Sequence) Leading Diagonal...

Comment:

Wow...

Bearish Leading Diagonal in the 1st Wave Position of Primary Wave 5....

Comment:

Note Fib Time High-lighted: 04 JAN 14:30

Comment:

Bearish Leading Diagonal is almost complete 1-5 + ABC

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Reminder: Fib Time: 04 JAN 19 14:30

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Travel Advisory
January 3, 2019
China - Level 2: Exercise Increased Caution

Exercise increased caution in China due to arbitrary enforcement of local laws as well as special restrictions on dual U.S.-Chinese nationals.

Chinese authorities have asserted BROAD authority to PROHIBIT U.S. citizens from leaving China by using ‘exit bans,’ sometimes keeping U.S. citizens in China for years. China uses exit bans coercively:

to compel U.S. citizens to participate in Chinese government investigations,
to lure individuals back to China from abroad, and
to aid Chinese authorities in resolving civil disputes in favor of Chinese parties.

In most cases, U.S. citizens only become aware of the exit ban when they attempt to depart China, and there is no method to find out how long the ban may continue. U.S. citizens under exit bans have been harassed and threatened.

U.S. citizens may be DETAINED without access to U.S. consular services or information about their alleged crime. U.S. citizens may be subjected to prolonged interrogations and extended detention for reasons related to “state security.” Security personnel may detain and/or deport U.S. citizens for sending private electronic messages critical of the Chinese government.

Extra security measures, such as security checks and increased levels of police presence, are common in the Xinjiang Uighur and Tibet Autonomous Regions. Authorities may impose curfews and travel restrictions on short notice.

China does not recognize dual nationality. U.S.-Chinese citizens and U.S. citizens of Chinese heritage may be subject to additional scrutiny and harassment, and China may prevent the U.S. Embassy from providing consular services.

Comment:

Review:

Comment:

Fib Time JAN O4 = Fed Reversal...

Comment:

*Note Different Time-Frames (1HR, 2HR, 1W) will change Fib Time Specific Time/date...

Hint for the Reason Why the Fib Time reads 04 JAN 15:30 instead of previous 04 JAN 14:30...

Comment:

***Correction***: Instead of a CONVERGING LEADING DIAGONAL it is a EXPANDING BEARISH LEADING DIAGONAL...

Comment:

Expanding or Converging is irrelevant though...

Comment:

There are two main types of diagonal triangles. One is where the two boundaries of the triangle converge and the other where they diverge. The second type is known as Expanding Diagonal Triangles.Irrespective of whether they are converging or expanding diagonal triangles, if they occur in the first wave position, where they are known as ‘leading diagonal triangle’, the internal waves are made up of 5-3-5-3-5 sub waves. If they occur in the fifth wave position, they are known as ‘ending diagonal triangles’ and the internal waves are made up of 3-3-3-3-3 sub waves.

Comment:

Let's see if these gains hold today...

Comment:

An important clue is when an irregular correction appears either after wave 1 or wave 3, (i.e. if either wave 2 or wave 4 is an irregular correction) then the next impulse wave will be very strong. For example, if wave 1 and 3 were normal waves, and wave 4 was an irregular correction, you can almost be certain that wave 5 will be an extended fifth.

Comment:

So, we have an Irregular Correction in the 4th Wave position with Sub-Wave sets of 5-3-5-3...

Comment:

Expecting an Extended 5th...

Hence why I said Wow yesterday....

Comment:

We are starting to approach some critical levels...

Comment:

DOUBLE DOWN NOW!

Comment:

Recap:

-We are in Cycle Wave 3 and still have to complete Cycle Wave 4 and Cycle Wave 5

-Primary Wave 5 within Cycle Wave 3 is about to begin

-We finished Primary Wave 4 but then an irregular correction occurred

-Irregular Corrections have Sub-Wave Sequences of 5-3-5 or 3-3-3

-Irregular Corrections found in the Wave 4 position imply an extended 5th wave. Especially, when Wave 1 and Wave 3 were 'normal' waves.

Comment:

WATCH FUTURES!

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!

Comment:

1Min Futures Chart

Comment:

Food for Thought...

Comment:

MIT predicts blockchain to become mainstream this year

Blockchain technology and adoption is about to explode. This is the prediction of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Technology Review, which expects blockchains to become commonplace this year. The Review sees 2019 bringing a serious amount of adoption of the technology, while, at the same time, asserting that blockchains will become “boring.”

According to the Review, “2017 saw the blockchain technology as a revolution designed to disrupt the existing global financial framework. In 2018, it turned out to be a disappointment. But in 2019, Blockchain technology will begin to become mundane.”

Even though it might be mundane, blockchain and distributed ledger technology (DLT) are changing the face of economies, financial systems and various industries across the globe. The Review points out that DLT has the potential to revolutionize healthcare, supply chain management, the entertainment industry and, maybe most importantly, the banking sector.

A number of large companies from across different industries have already begun to adopt blockchain technology as part of the core operations. Most notably, Walmart has seen huge advances in using the blockchain for its supply chain management and expects the onboarding of more of its suppliers. The Review explains, “Walmart has been testing the viability of the private blockchain system as a food supply tracker. It says it will begin to use the system in 2019 and has reportedly told its suppliers to join the initiative by September this year.”

Walmart’s foray into blockchain technology followed that of Carrefour, a supermarket chain headquartered in France with stores across Europe. It began using the blockchain as a means to ensure better food quality and safety.

Overstock, the eCommerce shopping company, believes in blockchains with such determination that it is going to forego retail to concentrate solely on the technology. The company’s founder and CEO, Patrick Byrne, recently stated, “The Blockchain technological revolution offers greater potential than anything we have ever seen in history. It is going to be bigger than the Internet revolution, in terms of how it will restructure the society.”

The auto industry is more than likely getting ready to embrace blockchains, as well. Many executives in the field have said that blockchain technology can offer better security and transparency, which will improve their supply chains and product quality.
Note: Tokens on the Bitcoin Core (segwit) Chain are Referred to as BTC coins. Bitcoin Satoshi Vision (BSV) is today the only Bitcoin implementation that follows Satoshi Nakamoto’s original whitepaper for Peer to Peer Electronic Cash. Bitcoin BSV is the only major public blockchain that maintains the original vision for Bitcoin as fast, friction-less, electronic cash.

***MIT Stole my prediction :)

Comment:

WASHINGTON – The partial government shutdown over funding for a border wall reached a milestone Sunday, now tying for the third longest on record without any end in sight because of bitter negotiations.

As President Donald Trump insisted that the border wall dispute was a "very important battle," his aides indicated that he wouldn't cave on his demands.

White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said Sunday that Trump "absolutely" stands by his comments that he is willing to continue the shutdown for months, or even years, to get the money he wants to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Sanders said the wall is needed to address the "national crisis" at the southern border.

Comment:

A crisis is emerging at migrant shelters as the Trump administration focuses, as one official put it, on “how can we deter, rather than how can we handle.”

EL PASO — At a migrant shelter near the Mexican border, three girls from Guatemala — sisters aged 10, 9 and 6 — coughed and sniffled. One of them clung to both a teddy bear and a large bottle of Pedialyte, to soothe her dehydration and flu.

The girls’ mother, Nelcy, 28, said her daughters got sick not during their long journey to the border in the back of a pickup truck, but during the 12 days they spent at two crowded government detention facilities before arriving at the privately run shelter in Texas.

The shelter network here run by the nonprofit Annunciation House is now receiving roughly 200 new migrants a DAY, the same number it saw in an entire week only a year ago. The number of migrants traveling as families crossing the
border from Mexico exceeded 25,000 in NOVEMBER, the highest numbers EVER recorded.

A crisis of the kind President Trump has long warned of is beginning to take shape along the country’s 1,900-mile border with Mexico. A border security network built over a period of decades to handle large numbers of single men has in the past several years been inundated with women and children, and as the number of families has peaked in recent months, the system has increasingly been unable to accommodate all of them.

Mr. Trump has made it a priority to end what he calls the practice of “catch and release,” but the policy of holding large numbers of migrants in detention has led to capacity problems. The Obama administration had a policy of releasing migrants who were considered safe and likely to appear in court in order to make room for others who were a higher priority for detention, but the Trump administration has largely eliminated that practice.

The number of detainees at Immigration and Customs Enforcement facilities has reached its HIGHEST point ever, according to figures provided by the agency, with an average daily population of 45,200 single adults and family units.

The RESULT is the recent need to release large numbers of migrants, many simply dropped off at bus stations. About 600 migrants were dropped off with no advance planning in El Paso during the last full week in December. Similar releases have happened in recent days and weeks in Arizona and California.

The situation has become more tense in recent weeks as ICE authorities, who in the past were careful to coordinate with volunteer shelters when releasing migrants, have instead begun dropping them in large numbers in the streets in Texas, Arizona and California, forcing city officials and charity groups to scramble. *?

In Yuma, Ariz., 87 percent of migrants apprehended in the current fiscal year were traveling as a family, and 50 percent of them were children. Expenditures have shot up 600 percent since last year, with the money being spent on diapers, feminine care products, snacks and juice, said a Border Patrol official in the state who was not authorized to speak on the record.

Nowhere has the growing desperation of migrants been more apparent than in Tijuana. The high volume of migrants from Central America arriving there has collided with the Trump administration’s decision to ration the number of asylum requests processed each day. Private shelters in Tijuana managed by local Christian and Catholic groups are near capacity, pushing new migrants into tent cities and improvised shelters that lack proper sanitation.

source:

Comment:

Economic worries hang over U.S.-China talks

Officials and business leaders are hoping that meetings in Beijing spur a continued thaw in relations between the economic superpowers.

U.S. officials view this week’s meetings as an opportunity to feel out how far China is willing to go to address U.S. concerns..

If the U.S. and China cannot come to some détente by March 1, Trump plans to raise duties to 25 percent.

This week’s discussions are the first talks since Trump’s Dec. 1 dinner meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires, attending the annual G-20 leaders summit.

late 2018, China officials gave the U.S. proposals to address its government subsidies, market access barriers and intellectual property theft. Those documents, and a more recent U.S. response, are expected to be the focus of this week’s talks.

“If...Chinese are really serious about doing some hard things, putting meat on the bones of vague commitments and willing to work with the U.S. on VERIFICATION and ENFORCEMENT mechanisms, then I think you’ll see negotiations move forward at an accelerated clip,” a U.S. industry official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of trade discussions.

verification and enforcement mechanisms?***

Source:

Comment:

Sub-Wave Minute Sets

Comment:

5-3-5-3-5-3-5-3-5 = 9 Sequences

Comment:

Another Way to count the Sub-Waves...

Comment:

Primary Wave 4 Irregular Correction looks to be over...

New Sub-Wave Sequence down should be beginning...

Comment:

Noted Fib Time: 07 JAN 19 18:48

Comment:

Last call to DOUBLE DOWN!

Comment:

Reminder: Irregular Corrections in the Wave 4 position imply an Extended 5th Wave.

Comment:

Updated Primary Wave 5 Target Area = $237.88 & $226.72

Note Cycle Wave 3 Extension Trigger is $226.07

Comment:

Minuscule Wave Sequence developing...

Comment:

Let's see whats going on this morning...

Comment:

One of the easiest formations to spot in a chart is a triangle. According to Elliott, a horizontal triangle occurs only in a Wave 4 position except in some very rare occasions when it appears in the second wave. It will never be seen in impulse waves 1, 3 or 5. However, some well known practitioners of the Elliott Wave Principle have introduced the concept that it is possible for a horizontal triangle to occur in any correction, and particularly in the B wave position.
A triangle in Elliott Wave analysis is typically made up of five internal waves, each of which is a made up of three sub waves.

Comment:

Above: Triangle

-Internal Waves are made up of 5 waves with each one made up of 3 sub-waves

Comment:

****IF YOU ARE TRADING THESE WAVES IN THIS ANALYSIS PLEASE DM BEFORE YOU EXECUTE A TRADE***

Comment:

Reminder: According to Elliott, a horizontal triangle occurs only in a Wave 4 position, diagonal triangles are often found as Wave 4 in situations when the upcoming fifth wave was likely to extend.

Comment:

'and particularly in the B wave position'.

Comment:

Look at the B Wave Position in the Correction!

Comment:

Minuscule Wave 1 and Wave 2 developed...

Wave 2 Correction retraced to the .618 Level of Wave 1...

Wave 1 Was Normal

Wave 2 was a Simple correction

Wave 3 beginning now...

Comment:

Anti-Bitcoin JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon: No Recession Ahead, Dow is Rebounding

Jamie Dimon — the anti-bitcoin CEO of JPMorgan Chase — says a global recession is not coming, so everyone needs to “take a deep breath” and chill out.

ON RECORD: Dimon said the Dow and other stock market indices are merely experiencing a temporary hiccup, but that doesn’t mean the US economy will slide into a recession anytime soon.

Dimon to Everyone: ‘Take a Deep Breath’

“It looks to me like a slowdown ,” Dimon told Fox Business (video below). “Sentiment changed dramatically for a whole bunch of different reasons. But the United States is still growing, at 2.5%. We just had some good wage data.”

It’s very possible we have a slowdown. People take a deep breath. Things will open up a little bit.

Dimon said the recent stock market slump occurred due to concerns about rising interest rates and a potential US trade war with China. But things have calmed down since then, and the market has rebounded nicely.

Despite the recent market turmoil, the US economy is in good shape at the moment. The unemployment rate has plunged to a 48-year-low, and 312,000 jobs were added in December 2018 — far more than the 177,000 that were expected.

“It looks like there will be growth,” Dimon said. “It’s not like we’re going into a global recession. We’re going to have maybe slower growth than people expected a couple of months ago.”

Moreover, Jamie Dimon says that US consumer sentiment is in “good shape” and will continue to improve.

“If you look at actual data, people are getting jobs, more people working, wages going up,” Dimon explained. “Household balance sheet in very good shape, credit card credit — extraordinarily good. It’s better than we deserve at this point in the cycle.”

On Jan. 8, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 23,787, up 256 points, continuing a five-day rally.

Comment:

Reminder: Next move down will be very strong...

Comment:

Adding a few more shorts here...

Comment:

Get your average cost basis down...

Comment:

We are at the Peak with irregular correction Wave 4

Comment:

Last call to add additional shorts...

Comment:

WASHINGTON — Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who had been overseeing Robert Mueller's special counsel investigation, plans to step down within the next month, according to administration officials familiar with his thinking.

Rosenstein had long intended to serve about two years as the Justice Department's No. 2 official, these officials say. They add that this is his own plan and that he is not being forced out by the White House. That's despite the fact that he's been a frequent target of criticism from President Donald Trump on Twitter.

The administration officials say he plans to remain on the job until after a new attorney general is confirmed. After pushing out Jeff Sessions in November, Trump nominated William Barr, who planned to be at the Capitol on Wednesday, beginning a round of courtesy calls with senators ahead of his confirmation hearing, which begins Jan. 15.

Comment:

Rod Rosenstein, who oversaw Mueller probe, leaving Justice Department
The No. 2 official is set to depart within the next month, officials said, with Trump's pick for AG expected to be confirmed soon.

Source:

Comment:

What did Rod oversee?

Comment:

Reminder: Key Fib Time Date - January 11th (+/- 24 Hours)

Comment:

Price-Action should fall and hit Purple Trend-line...

Comment:

DO NOT CANCEL SHORTS!

Comment:

Wave 4 Irregular Correction has caused greater technical damage to the SP 500...

This is NOT Bullish Price-Action...

Comment:

***Why has POTUS continually talked about declaring a National Emergency?

***What new Emergency System was tested?

***What happens if Government leaders cannot agree to a resolution to re-open the Government?

***What happens when caravans of tens of thousands of people are seeking entry into the USA and all US detention centers are at capacity?

Comment:

Cycle Wave 3 has formed a Leading Diagonal....

Primary Wave 5 will extend...

Analysis Target 2 expected to be hit ($210).

Comment:

Sub-Wave Sequence down has formed in the tic count...

Comment:

Reminder Key Fib Time: JAN 11

Comment:

***Corrected Chat***

Comment:

Blue line is Sine Wave...

Comment:

Added Fib Channel...

Comment:

Cycle Wave 3 has formed a large leading diagonal...

The 5th Primary Wave will be extended and will be a sharp decline...

Comment:

Watch Futures closely...

Comment:

The White House has begun laying the groundwork for a declaration of national emergency to build President Trump’s border wall, including searching for unused money in the Army Corps of Engineers budget, two people with knowledge of the preparations said Thursday.
Such a declaration would be certain to set off a firestorm of opposition and would undoubtedly be challenged in court. But it could also be a way out of the current impasse, allowing Trump to cite action on his long-promised wall even without Congress granting his funding demands, and potentially paving the way for the government to reopen. The shutdown is now in its third week.

Comment:

Trump has urged the Army Corps to determine how fast contracts could be signed and whether construction could begin within 45 days, according to one of these people, an official familiar with the deliberations who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe them.

Comment:

The preparations are taking place with talks at a stalemate over Trump’s demands for $5.7 billion to build more than 200 miles of wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Democrats are staunchly opposed, leading to a partial government shutdown that reaches the 21-day mark on Friday, making it tied for the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

Comment:

*21 Days

Comment:

The 'doomsday' scenario: Here's what happens if the shutdown drags on
Economists warn that a catastrophe is in the making if the partial government closure continues for weeks or months.

38 million low-income Americans lose food stamps
6 million face an uncertain timetable for collecting tax refunds
2 million without rental assistance and facing possible eviction
800,000 paycheck-less federal employees plunged into dire financial straits
Shuttered parks and museums while over-stressed airports cause tourism to tank
Federal court system slows to a crawl
Disaster relief money doesn't get to storm-ravaged areas
Lapsed FDA and EPA inspections lead to dangerous outbreaks
Private companies looking to go public are stuck in limbo
Stock market plummets

The end isn't near — yet. But if the standoff persists — talks blew up at the White House on Wednesday — and Congress and President Donald Trump can't reach a deal on raising the debt ceiling in a few months, "it's game over — you'll have a pretty severe recession," Zandi said, adding that given the trade war with China, and Brexit looming, "you could start seeing some pretty dark scenarios" worldwide.

Comment:

Now if we don’t make a deal with Congress, most likely I will do that,” Trump said to Fox News host Sean Hannity about an emergency declaration in an interview that aired Thursday night. “I would actually say I would. I can’t imagine any reason why not because I’m allowed to do it. The law is 100 percent on my side.”

Comment:

But on Capitol Hill there were no signs of progress, and instead lawmakers of both parties were bracing for Trump to declare a national emergency. Democrats were exploring their options on how to respond.

Comment:

In a statement Thursday, Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) accused Pelosi of intransigence that has brought talks to an end, and said that “it is time for President Trump to use emergency powers to fund the construction of a border wall/barrier.”

“I hope it works,” Graham added.

“There’s no question, it’s perfectly legal,” said Rep. Douglas A. Collins (R-Ga.). “I wish we didn’t have to.”

While most Democrats said Trump would be acting recklessly and illegally if he declared a national emergency, some were open to the approach.

“Honestly I would be glad, because then it would get shut down in court and we could move on,” said Rep. Katie Hill (D-Calif.), a freshman who unseated a Republican in a swing suburban district. “Hopefully he figures that out pretty quick.”

One Democratic aide called an emergency declaration an “elegant way out of this mess” — one that would allow Trump and Republicans to declare to their most fervent supporters that they had taken Democrats to the brink, while Democrats would quickly move to tie up any construction in the courts.

The House and Senate could move quickly to pass a bill to reopen the government, predicated on assurances from Trump that he would sign the legislation.

However, conservative Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), who talks frequently with Trump, cautioned that a declaration of a national emergency would not necessarily lead to reopening the government.

Comment:

Payday without pay hits federal workers as shutdown drags on

Comment:

The shutdown, which enters its 21st day Friday, will be the longest in history by this weekend and is forcing many American families to make tough decisions. It’s especially hard for workers who don’t have enough savings to cover their mortgages and other bills.

Roughly 420,000 federal employees were deemed essential and are working unpaid. An additional 380,000 are staying home without pay. While furloughed federal workers have been given back pay in previous shutdowns, it’s not guaranteed that will happen this time. Government contractors, who have been placed indefinitely on unpaid leave, don’t get compensated for lost hours.

Most of the government workers received their last paycheck two weeks ago, and Friday will be the first payday with no money.

Comment:

Chinese Retailers Forced to Sell Apple’s Latest iPhone Models With Huge Discounts

Comment:

Apple is looking at a weak financial quarter as demand for its latest iPhone models plunges in Chinese markets.

Several local retailers, including Alibaba-backed JD.com and Suning, have introduced huge discounts on Apple’s top-of-the-line smartphones, according to CNBC. Suning slashed the price of 128 GB iPhone XR model from $1,036 to $858 – a 17.1% discount. Another retailer is selling iPhone XS, Apple’s most premium smartphone, for $1,436, which is almost $200 less than Apple’s official price in the US.

Pinduoduo and Taobao.com, two renowned online electronics retail stores, are also selling iPhone XS and iPhone XR models $100 cheaper than their US rates, Shanghai Daily reports.

Chinese consumers are looking for cheaper and more feature-rich alternatives like smartphones produced by Huawei.

Comment:

Stricken with Pneumonia, Ruth Bader Ginsburg About to Retire from Supreme Court

Despite a show of support from MSM, the 85 year old cancer survivor has reached the end of her time on the court

As any reader of the Santa Monica Observer knew last September, Ruth Bader Ginsburg has developed lung cancer. The 85 year old Supreme Court Justice had surgery as quietly as possible on December 22, 2018.
Following surgery, she has developed complications including pneumonia. Pneumonia often afflicts elderly post surgery patients in the US, since antibiotics have resulted in Multi Resistant Strains of the lung infection.

Source:

Comment:

Fall Imminent...

Comment:

Fall=New Wave Sequence

Comment:

Adding shorts here...

Comment:

Where is my Fib Time Jan 11th Catalyst?

Comment:

Anyone got a guess?

Comment:

Raising Interest Rates into falling inflation?

Comment:

Wave 4 are always frustrating...

Bulls think it's the bottom. Everyone is still bullish. Sentiment remains mostly positive.

This is when mistakes are made...

What's the volume of the rallies?

Comment:

Recap:

Still in Cycle Wave 3...

Primary Wave 4 turned into an Irregular Horizontal Triangle (Bear)

Primary Wave 5 is trying to begin...

Looking for a Trigger...

Comment:

Shutdown set to break record as Senate leaves town
The partial government shutdown is set to become the longest funding lapse in modern history after the Senate left town on Friday for the week.
The Senate wrapped up its work for the week after 1 p.m., staying in session on Friday for more than three hours though no votes occurred and after most lawmakers already left town.
The House is also expected to adjourn until Monday. The chamber wrapped up its votes for the week earlier Friday, including sending a bill guaranteeing back pay for federal workers missing paychecks as a result of the partial government shutdown to President Trump's.
Democrats, joined by 10 Republicans, also passed a bill to reopen the Interior Department, Environmental Protection Agency and Forest Service. The measure will go nowhere in the Senate with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) refusing to bring up funding legislation unless it's supported by President Trump.
The current shutdown had already tied the 21-day record from the Clinton administration on Friday. With no deal expected, and Congress leaving town, it will break the record starting on Saturday.
The decision for Congress to leave town comes as Trump and congressional leadership remain far apart on funding for the U.S.-Mexico border wall, and negotiations have largely hit a dead end. Trump is demanding more than $5 billion for the wall. Congressional Democrats have pointed to $1.3 billion as their cap, and stress it be used on fencing instead of a concrete border wall.
Trump is flirting with declaring an emergency declaration to build the wall, though he's getting fierce pushback from Senate Republicans and House conservatives who believe it will get bogged down in court and worry about the precedent it will set for a future Democratic president.
Friday marks an escalation from the fallout of the partial shutdown, which is impacting roughly a quarter of the government and forcing approximately 800,000 federal employees to be furloughed or work without pay

Comment:

***Trigger?***

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***No Agreement

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Trend-Based Fib Time Extension (0-A-B): Level 2 = Start of fall...

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Mexican authorities will meet with Central American officials to prepare for the arrival of a planned new caravan of migrants headed to the United States next week.

The head of Mexico’s immigration office, Tonatiuh Guillen, left on Wednesday on a trip to El Salvador and Honduras to meet with his counterparts and other authorities, said Interior Ministry spokesman Hector Gandini.

Mexico hopes to discourage a mass exodus from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, and wants Central Americans who decide to migrate north to do so in an orderly way and through legal ports of entry.

This is shaping up to be the first serious test of AMLO’s new government and their resolve to put an end to mass illegal immigration. Just this week, Mexican officials announced that they were deploying large numbers of federal troops to nearly 300 common border crossing points in an effort to stem the tide. But if this new caravan is anywhere near the size of the last one they could easily overwhelm the border security forces.

Comment:

Watch the futures very closely...

The Crash is imminent...

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Expecting an extremely violent move anytime now...

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Indicators:
MACD - Bear Cross imminent
OBV - Declining
Ultimate Osc. - Turned Negative
Elliot Osc. - Shows the End of a Cycle (3 Impulse Waves)

Comment:

Expected Move:

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On January 30 (delayed due to the US Government shutdown), the World Magnetic Model — which governs modern navigation systems — is due to undergo an urgent update.

This model is a vital component of systems ranging from geopositioning systems used to navigate ships through to smartphone trackers and maps.

The current model was expected to be valid until 2020. But the magnetic pole began to shift so quickly, it was realised in 2018 that the model had to be fixed — now.

“They realised that it was so inaccurate that it was about to exceed the acceptable (safe) limit for navigational errors,” Nature reports.

Every year, geophysicists from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the British Geological Survey do a check on how the Earth’s magnetic field is varying.

This is necessary as the liquid iron churning in the Earth’s core does not move in a consistent manner.

“In 2016, for instance, part of the magnetic field temporarily accelerated deep under northern South America and the eastern Pacific Ocean,” Nature reports.

But the movement of the north magnetic pole has been the object of study since 1831. Initially, it was tracked moving into the Arctic Ocean at a rate of about 15km each year. But, since the mid 1990s, it has picked up speed.

It’s now shifting at a rate of about 55km a year.

***Change is accelerating. Interesting article.

Comment:

Bloomberg) -- PG&E Corp., the California utility giant facing billions of dollars in wildfire liabilities, may notify employees as soon as Monday that it’s preparing a potential bankruptcy filing, according to people familiar with the situation.

The San Francisco-based utility owner is planning to send the notice to fulfill a state law that requires the company to alert workers at least 15 days before a change of control, said the people, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public. The notice wouldn’t necessarily make a bankruptcy filing certain and the company could still decide not to if its situation changes, one of the people said.

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Some 30 Democratic lawmakers left the government shutdown behind Friday on a chartered flight to Puerto Rico for a winter retreat with 109 lobbyists and corporate executives during which they planned to see the hit Broadway show “Hamilton” and attend three parties including one with the show’s cast.

Those attending the Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC winter retreat in San Juan planned to meet with key officials to discuss the cleanup after Hurricane Maria at a roundtable Saturday.

But the weekend is packed with free time for the members and their families on the trip.

Comment:

Some 109 lobbyists and corporate executives are named in the memo, a rate of 3.6 lobbyists for every member. They include those from several big K Street firms, R.J. Reynolds, Facebook, Comcast, Amazon, PhRMA, Microsoft, Intel, Verizon, and unions like the National Education Association.

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On the list was Speaker Nancy Pelosi, but an official in her office said that she did not make the trip.

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Source:

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The Humble Watcher Exclusive:

Currently, the DC Metro Area has around 10 inches of snow and is still accumulating ...

It takes about .5 inch of snow for the shutdown the beltway...

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There is a debate about whether China used the “North Korea card” against Washington in its trade negotiations with the US, capitalising on Kim Jong-un’s visit to Beijing. The two international headline-making events happened simultaneously in Beijing. Interestingly, both Beijing and Washington flatly deny any link. Analysts are divided. It warrants discussion because it offers an important insight into how the two superpowers strategise the North Korea issue in their dealings.

Donald Trump has already openly complained, at least three times, that China was behind North Korea's defiant attitude that led to the negotiations being stalled last year. The US president said earlier this month that he would meet Kim soon. Therefore, President Xi Jinping’s meeting with Kim raised concerns in Washington.

In a gentlemen’s world, one does not mix apples and oranges. (Actually, we learned that early on, in kindergarten.) In a gentleman’s world, one also does not mix politics with trade; otherwise, the global free trade structure will crumble. Both Washington and Beijing claim they are gentlemen, in which case they should treat the North Korean nuclear issue and the US-China trade war as separate issues. But the idea that China may use North Korea as leverage in the trade war keeps popping up.

The probing question should be: are we living in a gentlemen’s world now, especially amid the increasing rivalry, competition and distrust between China and the United States?

But others think it makes sense for China to use “Kim’s visit” as leverage with Washington. With Kim having visited four times in a mere 10 months, Beijing is confident that Washington cannot solve the North Korean issue without China’s help. China is seen as the country that wields the most clout over Pyongyang; more than 90 per cent of North Korean trade depends on China.

For the North Koreans, it also makes sense for Kim to use his visit to China to hedge against the possibility of slow progress with the US, by making sure that he maintains good guanxi (relationship) with President Xi.

Sensing the narrative that Beijing may be using the “North Korea card” in the trade dispute, China’s Global Times chipped in. In an editorial, it argued: “Hardly any serious Chinese strategist would see it this way”, as if it would be beneath the dignity of a rising superpower to mix the two. Oh, really? When the THAAD dispute erupted between China and South Korea, there was also a strong argument in South Korea that China would not retaliate economically because they were separate issues. The South Korean minister in charge of the nation’s economy advocated this view, rationalising that to retaliate would also hurt the Chinese economy, given the interdependent nature of trade.

But China chose to retaliate economically to send a political signal: when a country sides with Washington in a US-China dispute, they will pay a dear price. It was also a warning to other Asian countries.
Why would China trumpet Kim's visit, then have Washington play a guessing game about his activities? Even if North Korea was not part of the US-China trade war calculus, it was a psychological factor embedded in the larger geopolitical power game between the two. China is quite skilled at psychological warfare and can unleash it when it wants.

Washington is not immune to such tactics, either. The US denies that the arrest of Huawei chief financial officer Sabrina Meng Wanzhou has anything to do with the trade war. But it has made many in China quite anxious.

Business and pleasure shouldn’t be mixed in the world of gentlemen. But they also say: “It was a pleasure to do business with you.”

Comment:

Minuscule Sub-Waves:

1. Leading Diagonal
3. Extended over 300% of Wave 1
5. Normal

Comment:

Higher Degree Micro-Wave 1 is Extending...

Retrace < .236

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VIX vs. ES1!

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Price-Action was awful today...

Watches futures...

$210 target inbound...

Comment:

Stay the course...

Bearish Complex sequences...

Market will turn on a dime...

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1 Day 138 Ticks...

Shows Wave Sequence...

Should be turning now...

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Hope everyone is ready...

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Price-action will follow Red Spiral...

Confirmed Tic Wave down...

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Trigger = Currency Collapse?

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Fiat Death Spiral...

GBP is the trigger?

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Believe we have our catalyst...

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Global Currency Analysis coming soon!

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Cleaner chart and added GOLD!

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Reversal should be occurring here...

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If you own 18 JAN 19 Put options it might be a good idea to roll them...

Need to time the roll correctly...

We should be seeing a sharp decline anytime...that’s the time to roll them...

Comment:

Not buying this algo driven “report”.

Comment:

Fiat money is a currency without intrinsic value that has been established as money, often by government regulation. Fiat money does not have use value, and has value only because a government maintains its value, or because parties engaging in exchange agree on its value.

The House of Cards...

Comment:

Well....

Look what we have here...

I see a Large High Degree Leading Diagonal, Lower Degree Leading Diagonal, and irregular horizontal triangle Sub-Wave 4...

I don't think you can get more bearish than that...

Looks like it peaked today based on the Green Fib Spiral the price-action has been following since the middle of October...

Price-action is ALWAYS following a Fibonacci sequence...

Spirals give us scenarios...

Comment:

Spiral intersections are like forks in the road...

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Diving Deep here:

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Check out that price line

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Peak

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Very complex correction

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5-3-5 Sequences

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Comment: Above: Triangle

Jan 8:

-Internal Waves are made up of 5 waves with each one made up of 3 sub-waves

Reminder: According to Elliott, a horizontal triangle occurs only in a Wave 4 position, diagonal triangles are often found as Wave 4 in situations when the upcoming fifth wave was likely to extend.

Comment:

Triple Checked the Wave Count...Still anticipating very large drop any second...

Nothing has Technically occurred that changes the analysis...

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Hypothetical: PUT 22 JAN 19 247 @ OPEN

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Pre-Market: .01-.02

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This Price-action is Manic...

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Has the SP 500 become ZOMBIE like due to Quantitative easing ?

Did the record stock buyback programs help their businesses innovate or get lazy?

In 2004 companies announced plans to repurchase $230 billion in stock—more than double the volume of the previous year. During the first three months of this year, buyback announcements exceeded $50 billion.1 And with large global corporations holding $1.6 trillion in cash, all signs indicate that buybacks and other forms of payouts will accelerate.

In general, markets have applauded such moves, making buybacks an alluring substitute if improvements in operational performance are elusive. Yet while the increases in earnings per share that many buybacks deliver help managers hit EPS-based compensation targets, boosting EPS in this way doesn’t signify an increase in underlying performance or value. Moreover, a company’s fixation on buybacks might come at the cost of investments in its long-term health.

A closer inspection of the market’s response to buybacks illustrates these risks, since some companies’ share price declined—or didn’t respond at all. For example, Dell’s announcement earlier this year that it would increase its buyback program by an additional $10 billion didn’t slow the decline of its share price, which had begun to slide because of worries about operating results.

Buybacks aren’t without value. It is crucial, however, for managers and directors to understand their real effects when deciding to return cash to shareholders or to pursue other investment options. A buyback’s impact on share price comes from changes in a company’s capital structure and, more critically, from the signals a buyback sends. Investors are generally relieved to learn that companies don’t intend to do something wasteful—such as make an unwise acquisition or a poor capital expenditure—with the excess cash.

EPS may be up, but intrinsic value remains flat

Many market participants and executives believe that since a repurchase reduces the number of outstanding shares, thus increasing EPS , it also raises a company’s share price. As one respected Wall Street analyst commented in a recent report, “Share buybacks . . . improve EPS , return on equity, return on capital employed, economic profit, and fundamental intrinsic value.” At first glance, this argument seems to make sense: the same earnings divided by fewer shares results in a higher EPS and so a higher share price. But this belief is wrong.

Comment:

***Corrected Chart

Comment:

We are just repeating complex sequences...

What will break the correction?

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We are at the fork in the road...

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Which Way?

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Volume?

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To restore a Bull Market we must break and hold $2821.00

Comment:

Wave 4: Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three (see Fibonacci relationships below). Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend.

Comment:

Hitting the Green Fib Spiral...

Let's see if the Price-action follows it...

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Note how price-action tried to break out of triangle...

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Now its holding on for dear life...

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Note Sub-Wave 5 was Extended

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Reminder: What % of the US GDP is China related?

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Trump blasts Pelosi for wanting to leave country during shutdown

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The tweet came a day after Trump in a letter to Pelosi canceled a military plane that would have taken Pelosi and other lawmakers to Afghanistan, where they were set to visit U.S. troops.

Comment:

Trump dismissed the trip, which also included a stop in Brussels for a NATO visit, as a “public relations event.”
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“I also feel that, during this period, it would be better if you were in Washington negotiating with me and joining the Strong Border Security movement to end the shutdown,” he added in Thursday’s letter, suggesting that she could fly commercially.

Trump's letter was in response to a note from Pelosi the previous day. She cited security concerns in suggesting that Trump postpone the Jan. 29 State of the Union address, a signal that she could also rescind his invitation to deliver the address to the House.

Pelosi and Trump have been in an intense political row since roughly a quarter of the government was shut down on Dec. 22.

Comment:

***What is going on here?!

Comment:

Why would Nancy Pelosi leave the Country with other Democrats on a seven day excursion when 800,000 great people are not getting paid. Also, could somebody please explain to Nancy & her “big donors” in wine country that people working on farms (grapes) will have easy access in!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 18, 2019

Comment:

Still maintain a STRONG SELL...

Still maintain CRASH...

Currently, in the Wave 4 Position.

Wave 4 is a Irregular Horizontal Triangle. 5-3-5 Sub-Waves.

Expecting a draw-down of -360 points in approx. 3-4 days.

Comment:

Remember my Key FIb Time Dates

Comment:

I will be making a major announcement concerning the Humanitarian Crisis on our Southern Border, and the Shutdown, tomorrow afternoon at 3 P.M., live from the @WhiteHouse.

The president did not provide any further details on what he would discuss on what is set to be the 28th day of the partial government shutdown. The White House press team offered no further guidance to reporters when asked about the president's tweet late Friday.

Comment:

As the longest government shutdown in American history lurches toward its fifth week, a grim but growing consensus has begun to emerge on Capitol Hill: There may be no way out of this mess until something disastrous happens.

Comment:

This is, of course, not a sentiment lawmakers are eager to share on the record. But in interviews this week with congressional staffers on both sides of the aisle (whom I granted anonymity in exchange for candor), I heard the same morbid idea expressed again and again.

The basic theory—explained to me between weary sighs and defeated shrugs—goes like this: Washington is at an impasse that looks increasingly unbreakable. President Donald Trump is dug in; so is Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Democrats have public opinion on their side, but the president is focused on his conservative base. For a deal to shake loose in this environment, it may require a failure of government so dramatic, so shocking, as to galvanize public outrage and force the two parties back to the negotiating table.

Comment:

In these interviews, I heard an array of macabre hypotheticals—from airplane crashes to food-safety scares, TSA strikes to terrorist incidents. But the one theme that ran through every conversation was a sense that the current political dynamics won’t change until voters get a lot angrier.

Comment:

“This is all pageantry,” a Democratic House aide said of the posturing by Trump and Congress. “It’s going to take a big national event to move things. I mean, we’re at a standstill.”

Comment:

One senior Republican Senate staffer told me he could envision the shutdown lasting until March, when federal funding dries up for food stamps—a crisis that would be hard for Washington to ignore. “Not only are there going to be a lot of hungry families,” he said, “but there are going to be a lot of Walmarts and Safeways and Krogers that are missing revenue.”

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*FLASHPOINT IN HISTORY*

The largest single group of asylum seekers ever to cross into the U.S. tunneled beneath the border wall near San Luis, Arizona, on Monday, voluntarily turning themselves into Customs and Border Protection, according to the agency.

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Migrants can be seen marching toward Border Patrol agents by the hundreds, according to video obtained by ABC News. Smugglers dug a series of seven holes, only a few feet long beneath the steel border fence, with hundreds going beneath the wall and a smaller number clambering over it, according to CBP.
The fresh sand and scuff marks of shoes on the rusty steel were still there when ABC News visited the site on Thursday.

Comment:

The agency says 179 of the record 376 people who crossed were children, including over 30 unaccompanied minors -- children under 18 traveling on their own.
The overall number of unauthorized crossings has plummeted since its peak in the 2001, when CBP logged about 1.6 million apprehensions, according to government statistics. However, the demography of those crossing has changed dramatically.

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"In my 30 years with the Border Patrol, I have not been part of arresting a group of 376 people," Porvaznik said. "That's really unheard of."

Comment:

Just two days after the group tunneled under the border wall in Yuma, the Border Patrol took in another huge group of migrants in New Mexico. The 247-person group, including unaccompanied minors, crossed near the Antelope Wells Port of Entry and immediately surrendered to authorities for processing.
The CBP said 24 large groups -- quantified as 100 or more -- have crossed the border near Lordsburg, New Mexico, just since Oct. 1, 2018.

Comment:

Reminder: The Grand Master Geo-political Chess Game that will rule the next generations (RE-Read Analysis) Old Vs. New

Comment:

Think Supreme Court

Comment:

Think Mueller
Think Flynn

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Think Global Supply Chain (US V. CHINA)

Comment:

IN FOR THE KILL Boris Johnson rips into Theresa May in pitch for Tory crown – as Cabinet No Deal mutiny explodes

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“BuzzFeed’s description of specific statements to the Special Counsel’s Office, and characterization of documents and testimony obtained by this office, regarding Michael Cohen’s Congressional testimony are not accurate,” Peter Carr, a spokesman for Mueller’s office, said.

TRUMP ATTORNEY DISMISSES REPORT ALLEGING PRESIDENT TOLD COHEN TO LIE TO CONGRESS

The statement is remarkable in that Mueller's team rarely issues statements in response to news stories. But BuzzFeed's story sparked immense interest from Democrats, who called for renewed investigations and even suggested the allegations could be a basis for impeachment proceedings.

Buzzfeed's Editor-in-Chief Ben Smith tweeted after the release of the statement Friday: "In response to the statement tonight from the Special Counsel's spokesman: We stand by our reporting and the sources who informed it, and we urge the Special Counsel to make clear what he's disputing."

Comment:

Think Team A and Team B

What are they doing to Buzzfeed right now?

Comment:

CBS?

Comment:

How many Large-Cap companies have new CEOs?

Comment:

Why did Trump cancel Dems Military transport to Afghanistan?

Comment:

Same old elite? Macron's 'revolution' fails with fed up French

The failure of Macron's bid to restore faith in politicians in France could have repercussions in a country where anti-establishment far-right and far-left parties have never been so popular.

Research published last week by the Cevipof political institute at Sciences Po university found more than two thirds of the French people still had overwhelmingly negative views of politicians.

Comment:

'Alarming' results -

Overall, cynicism was at its highest level since Cevipof began its surveys in 2007, before the presidencies of Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande, which were both judged harshly by French voters.

"The surge in confidence hoped for by Emmanuel Macron after his election has not materialised," Cevipof director Martial Foucault commented last week, calling the results "alarming".

Many of the new MPs in Macron's Republic on the Move (LREM) party have been shocked by the abuse directed at them since the "yellow vest" protesters from rural and small-town France took to the streets in late November.

Bruno Questel, a northern MP, was shaken in mid-December when someone fired six gunshots in front of his house shortly before midnight which was followed by a noisy demonstration of around 40 people.

"I was stunned. We've reached a new level of aggressiveness," he told AFP, adding that the crowd insulted and threatened him when he went outside to reason with them.

"I don't think any MP deserves to have gunshots in front of his house."

Around 50 of Macron's 305 MPs say they have been victims of some form of intimidation.

Comment:

Revolutionary spirit -

Macron has interpreted the protests as a sign of impatience from an electorate desperate for change -- for lower taxes, better public services and democratic reforms.

All of those were campaign promises from the 41-year-old ex-banker, who like many of his MPs had never been elected before becoming president.

But analysts also see Macron's perceived arrogance, top-down governing style, and tax policies favouring high earners as reasons behind the "yellow vest" revolt.

Other research from Cevipof has shown that Macron's MPs are mostly drawn from the middle or professional classes -- with little experiences of the poverty and economic difficulties denounced by the "yellow vests".

Historian Jean Garrigues calls the level of abuse directed at MPs "unprecedented" under the fifth republic, which began in 1958.

But this new wave of anti-elitism draws from deep sources, he says.

"You can see in the 'yellow vest' movement the idea of what was called the 'abolition of privileges' during the Revolution," he said, referring to the 1789 revolt that toppled the monarchy.

"There is this revolutionary idea, that is recurrent and cyclical in French society, of wanting to take revenge on people that are seen as the privileged," he said.

Comment:

*Trump just gave the Dems the ultimatum...

Trump proposes deal on immigration, Pelosi calls shutdown offer a "non-starter"

Pelosi said in a statement before the speech that based on reports of the deal, she would not support it, calling it a "nonstarter" which was unlikely to pass the House.

"Unfortunately, initial reports make clear that his proposal is a compilation of several previously rejected initiatives, each of which is unacceptable and in total, do not represent a good faith effort to restore certainty to people's lives," Pelosi said. "For one thing, this proposal does not include the permanent solution for the Dreamers and TPS recipients that our country needs and supports."

"First, President Trump and Senate Majority Leader McConnell must open the government today. Second, I cannot support the proposed offer as reported and do not believe it can pass the Senate. Third, I am ready to sit down at any time after the government is opened and work to resolve all outstanding issues," Durbin said.

In recent weeks, Mr. Trump has considered declaring a national emergency, which would enable him to build the wall without congressional approval. Mr. Trump said earlier this month that "I can do it if I want." So far, he has not. "I think we might work a deal," he has said. But Mr. Trump went on to threaten, "And if we don't, I may go that route. I have the absolute right to do national emergency if I want."

Comment:

GOOGLE IS FACING a new campaign of global protests over its plan to launch a censored version of its search engine in China.

On Friday, a coalition of Chinese, Tibetan, Uighur, and human rights groups organized demonstrations outside Google’s offices in the U.S., U.K., Canada, India, Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Sweden, Switzerland, and Denmark.

Google designed the Chinese search engine, code-named Dragonfly, to blacklist information about human rights, democracy, religion, and peaceful protest, in accordance with strict rules on censorship in China that are enforced by the country’s authoritarian Communist Party government.

In December, The Intercept revealed that an internal dispute had forced Google to shut down a data analysis system that it was using to develop the search engine. This had “effectively ended” the project, sources said, because the company’s engineers no longer had the tools they needed to build it.

But Google bosses have not publicly stated that they will cease development of Dragonfly. And the company’s CEO Sundar Pichai has refused to rule out potentially launching the search engine some time in the future, though he has insisted that there are no current plans to do so. The organizers of Friday’s protests — which were timed to coincide with Internet Freedom Day — said that they would continue to demonstrate “until Google executives confirm that Project Dragonfly has been canceled, once and for all.”

Comment:

OTTAWA -- Ambassador John McCallum said a prime ministerial phone call to Chinese President Xi Jinping is bound to happen in the ongoing Huawei dispute, but it’s the “last arrow” in the government’s “quiver.”

Prime Minster Justin Trudeau has phoned multiple world leaders about the Canada-China dispute, including the United States, Singapore and Japan. The United Kingdom, France and Germany have also all expressed their support for Canada’s effort to secure the release of two detained Canadians.

“We have a prime minister who won’t even pick up the phone.”
Hundreds of Canadians detained in China
Speaking to reporters about the two detained Canadians on Friday, McCallum pointed out there are many other detained Canadians the government is currently working to help.
“There are other consular cases in China that are private, and I want to assure the families of those other consular cases that we are equally working on their situations,” McCallum said.
“I want to assure them that their family members have not, in the slightest, been forgotten.”

Global Affairs confirmed that there are 200 Canadians who have being detained in China with no marked increase or decrease in recent years.

Comment:

Dec 27, 2018 Comment: Key Fib Time Dates:

Jan. 2nd
Jan. 11th
Jan. 21st

Comment:

Does the corporate debt mountain pose an avalanche risk?

During the years of ultra cheap money, companies loaded up on debt but now the concern is whether they will be able to handle the mountain of debt as interest rates rise.

Until last year, companies basked in the sun of low interest rates while economies were expanding at a steady clip. They had no real reason not to borrow.

But in 2018 the clouds set in: political uncertainty, market volatility, deteriorating growth prospects, in particular in China, and most importantly a tightening of monetary policy as central banks ended the stimulus measures taken to tame the 2007-08 financial crisis.

At the end of last year the US Federal Reserve estimated that private US companies held nearly $15 trillion (13 trillion euros) in debt. In Europe, non-financial companies hold some 12 trillion euros ($13.8 trillion), according to Pierre Verle, head of credit at asset manager Carmignac.

"In absolute terms, the debt of non-financial companies accounts for around 70 percent of gross domestic product in the United States and in the eurozone it is above 100 percent: these are elevated levels, but not explosive," said Isabelle Mateos y Lago, managing director and chief multi-asset strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute.

She said such levels "don't say much about the capacity of firms to repay their debts."

Instead Mateos y Lago pointed to another indicator: the ratio of net revenue to debt payments. In the United States, net revenues are nine times higher than debt payments, while in Europe the ratio is 12, she said.

- 'Fallen angels' -

In recent months, concern in the United States has focused around so-called leveraged loans, which former US Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen recently called a systemic risk.

These loans, estimated by experts to be worth some $1.3 trillion, are made to companies with high debt loads or with poor credit histories, or both.

These loans are riskier as there is a greater risk the borrower will default, but as they carry higher interest rates, they can be attractive to investors seeking returns.

A portion of these loans have been resold to investors, much as the high-risk "sub-prime" mortgages that caused the 2008 financial crisis.

"In Europe the problem is less acute as investors accept less readily debt levels that are too high and the trauma from the 2008 crisis is more present," said Vincent Marioni, who heads up credit investments in Europe for Allianz Global Investors.

There are less than 300 billion euros in repackaged leveraged loans, according to Verle.

Another subject of attention has been the rise in the number of companies that are just holding onto their investment grade credit rating.

A downgrade into what ratings agencies call a speculative debt rating -- and investors call junk bonds -- means companies will have to pay more interest to borrow.

These companies which tumble into junk territory are called "fallen angels," and if there are too many then it could spook investors and cause them to dump the bonds.

This risk "hovers like a dark cloud over investors", said Claudio Borio, head of the monetary and economic department at the Bank of International Settlements, when presenting its latest quarterly report in December.

Comment:

*LAST KEY FIB TIME DATES IN JANUARY:

1. January 21st (Trend-Based Fib Time 0-1-2 ) -Daily Chart
2. January 23rd (Fib Time Zone 0-2 ) - Daily Chart

Comment:

Price-Action is trying to breakout of the horizontal triangle but keeps failing...

Comment:

Sub-Micro Leading Diagonal...

Added Fib Time

Added Time Marker

Comment:

Fib Time + Fib Spirals + Wave Count

Comment:

Catalyst?

Comment:

Sub-Wave Leading Diagonal is about to break down...

Buckle up...

Comment:

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares and U.S. stock futures slipped on Tuesday as pessimism about world growth drove investors away from risky assets, while sterling dithered as the latest plan for Brexit appeared to come and go with no progress.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> fell 0.5 percent, drifting away from a recent seven-week top.
Adding to the air of caution and uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund trimmed its global growth forecasts and a survey showed increasing pessimism among business chiefs as trade tensions loomed.

The gloomy IMF forecasts, released on the eve of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, highlighted the challenges facing policymakers as they tackle an array of current or potential crises, from the U.S.-China trade war to Brexit.
In a sign of risk aversion, the Australian dollar (AUD=D3), often used as a liquid proxy for China investments, nudged down to $0.7155, putting it on track for a third straight session of losses.

Sterling traded cautiously around $1.2887 as British Prime Minister Theresa May refused to rule out a no-deal Brexit. There are few signs she can break a deadlock with parliament after her Brexit deal was rejected last week.

May offered to tweak her defeated deal by seeking further concessions from the European Union on a backup plan to avoid a hard border in Ireland.

"Any upside for sterling in the near term may be limited," said Capital Economics analyst Liam Peach. "Uncertainty would continue during the extended negotiations and there is no guarantee that it would last for only a short period of time."

Analysts said investors were nervous about building positions in the pound, specially given the possibility of Britain leaving the EU without a deal.

The dollar (JPY=) held at 109.62 against the Japanese yen while the euro was near the floor of its recent trading range at $1.1369 (EUR=). Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was flat at 96.324 (.DXY).

In commodities, global growth worries pulled oil prices lower early on Tuesday with Brent (LCOc1) down 14 cents at $62.60 and U.S. crude futures (CLc1) off 7 cents at $53.73.

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Sub-wave leading diagonal is about to break...

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WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump's proposal to break through the budget deadlock appeared to be gaining little traction Monday, as another missed paycheck loomed for hundreds of thousands of workers and the partial federal shutdown stretched into its fifth week.

Despite the fanfare of the president's announcement and the rush to release the legislative package late Monday, voting in Congress was not expected to unfold until later in the week. Even then it seemed doubtful that the 1,300-page "End The Shutdown And Secure The Border Act" released by Senate Republicans had any chance of passing swiftly. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority but would need Democrats to reach the usual 60-vote threshold for bills to advance. Not a single Democrat publicly expressed support for the deal in the 48 hours since Trump announced it.

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While the House and Senate are scheduled to be back in session Tuesday, no votes have been scheduled so far on Trump's plan. And senators, who will be given 24-hour notice ahead of voting, have yet to be recalled to Washington.

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McConnell spokesman David Popp said Monday that the GOP leader "will move" to vote on consideration of the president's proposal "this week."

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House Democrats this week are pushing ahead with voting on their own legislation to re-open the government and add $1 billion for border security —including 75 more immigration judges and infrastructure improvements — but no funding for the wall.

Trump later tweeted: "Democrats are kidding themselves (they don't really believe it!) if they say you can stop Crime, Drugs, Human Trafficking and Caravans without a Wall or Steel Barrier. Stop playing games and give America the Security it deserves. A Humanitarian Crisis!"

Meanwhile, the impact of the shutdown — the longest ever — continued to ripple across the nation as it stretched into its 31st day.

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Chinese stars hit with $1.62 billion in 'cold winter' tax crackdown

BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Chinese authorities have collected more than 11 billion yuan ($1.62 billion) in unpaid taxes from celebrities and entertainment companies since they hit the industry with a crackdown, state media Xinhua reported on Tuesday.

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Xinhua, citing the national tax bureau and content watchdog, said the campaign, which began in October, had ended and companies and workers had been ordered to correct their tax records.

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***Sound familiar?

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The most famous star to get caught up in the campaign was actress Fan Bingbing who has 62 million online followers.

She was ordered to pay about $129 million in overdue taxes and fines in October, after a four-month disappearance from the public eye, Xihua reported earlier.

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Industry insiders have lamented that a “cold winter” has descended on the business since authorities launched the checks, with film projects stalling and investors selling off related company shares.

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Authorities said the industry should set its mind at rest and focus on work, but added that it would continue to target companies and individuals deemed highly exposed to tax-related risks.

Industry workers should “practise socialist core values ... and strive to be entertainment workers with belief, empathy and sense of responsibility in the new era”, authorities said, according to Xinhua.

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Chinese President Xi warns party of ‘serious dangers’ as risks mount

The party is facing long-term and complex tests in terms of maintaining long-term rule, reform and opening-up, a market-driven economy and within the external environment,” Xi said.

President Xi Jinping stressed the need to maintain political stability in an unusual meeting of China’s top leaders — a fresh sign the ruling party is growing concerned about the social implications of the slowing economy.

needed greater efforts to prevent and resolve major risks, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

He said areas of concern facing the leadership ranged from politics and ideology to the economy, environment and external situation.

“The party is facing long-term and complex tests in terms of maintaining long-term rule, reform and opening-up, a market-driven economy and within the external environment,” Xi said, according to Xinhua.

The party is facing sharp and serious dangers of a slackness in spirit, lack of ability, distance from the people and being passive and corrupt. This is an overall judgement based on the actual situation.

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Although Xi has issued similar warnings previously, including in February 2018, Monday’s statements contained signs of greater urgency. The mention of the serious threats to the party’s long-standing rule appeared new. A full transcript of his remarks to the closed-door gathering was not immediately available.

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The meeting was held on the same day that China reported its slowest quarterly economic growth since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009

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Xi faces added pressure to personally resolve the issues after obtaining a constitutional change that allows him to rule indefinitely.

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The meeting appears to have been scheduled recently, since several provincial legislatures rescheduled their annual meetings to accommodate the event. State media offered no advance notice of the gathering.

this was the first such seminar held without convening a full meeting of the body. A Central Committee meeting known as a plenum was expected late last year — a point in the political cycle when the party usually tackles economic policies — but has yet to be announced.

“That’s a cocktail that could be explosive as people realise the CCP is no longer delivering the goods on the social contract,” said Dennis Wilder, a Professor at Georgetown University and former senior director for Asia on the National Security Council.

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The White House is still planning to move ahead with next week’s scheduled State of the Union address, but the details remain up in the air after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi strongly urged the president to delay the speech or submit it in writing amid the government shutdown fight.

According to multiple sources, it remains unclear whether the address scheduled for Jan. 29 will in fact go forward, or what venue it would be in. The White House is even planning for the possibility of a speech outside of Washington.

But Fox News has learned that the White House sent a letter to the House Sergeant at Arms asking to schedule a walk-through for next week’s planned address. This comes after a previously scheduled walk-through last week was canceled at Pelosi’s request.

At the moment, President Trump intends to be at the Capitol next Tuesday to deliver his speech as scheduled, sources said. White House officials told Fox News they essentially are preparing for two tracks for next week's speech. The preferred track is an address, as per custom, at the Capitol. The second track is a backup plan for a speech outside of Washington, D.C.

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“If the Secret Service can protect the president of the United States on a trip to Iraq, chances are they can protect the American president in the halls of Congress,” Gidley said.

A spokesman for Pelosi did not immediately return a request for comment. Neither did the House Sergeant at Arms office.

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Mystery company fighting Mueller: New details emerge
6:39 PM EST January 22, 2019 Video 01:11
An attempt before the Supreme Court for a company to dodge a grand jury subpoena related to the Mueller investigation revealed a new twist Tuesday: that the company is wholly owned by a foreign government.
P

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Is this a Primary Wave 1?

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or

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If it is the end of a Super Millennium cycle then this would be a small primary wave 1....

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and we would be starting primary wave 3 down...

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or it's not the end of the super mill. cycle and this is Cycle Wave 5 down...

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Need to watch to see if Wave 1 Terminal @ 219.50 holds...

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Analysis Target number 2 expected to be hit.

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We have a LARGE leading diagonal...

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Blood Bath Tomorrow?

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House Speaker Nancy Pelosi dug in Wednesday on her call to delay the State of the Union address even after President Trump vowed to proceed with the speech next week, sending a curt letter making clear she will not allow the event to take place during the government shutdown.

Reacting to Pelosi’s letter, Trump told reporters at the White House "we'll do something in the alternative," suggesting a speech of some kind will still happen next week.

Hours earlier, Trump had told Pelosi he was still planning to deliver the address from the House floor. Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy also introduced a resolution to allow the State of the Union to go forward as planned on Jan. 29.

But Pelosi makes the final call, and fired back in a letter to Trump saying she would not consider what's known as a "concurrent resolution," which is needed to allow the use of the chamber for the State of the Union.

I am writing to inform you that the House of Representatives will not consider a concurrent resolution authorizing the president’s State of the Union address in the House Chamber until government has opened,” Pelosi wrote in the letter to Trump.

Pelosi added in her letter that she looks forward to welcoming Trump to the House “on a mutually agreeable date for this address when government has been opened.”

In recent days though, the White House has been readying a Plan B in case Pelosi moved to block the speech in the House chamber. White House officials told Fox News they essentially were preparing for two tracks for next week's speech. The preferred track is an address, as per custom, at the Capitol. The second track is a backup plan for a speech outside of Washington, D.C.

"The State of the Union speech has been canceled because she doesn’t want to hear the truth. She’s afraid of the truth," Trump said of Pelosi during an event at the White House.

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Reminder: I use Fib Spirals to show me Wave relationships (Higher/Lower) and possible price-action scenarios...

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Watch Futures closely...

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Across Mexico border from safe El Paso, violence surges in Juárez

Read more:

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After two years of near-total silence, Robert Mueller spoke, and people who know him want to know why. Last Thursday, BuzzFeed published an extraordinary report alleging that Donald Trump had instructed Michael Cohen to lie to Congress about plans to build a Trump Tower in Moscow, prompting an equally extraordinary denial from the special counsel’s office. The “description of specific statements to the special counsel’s office, and characterization of documents and testimony obtained by this office, regarding Michael Cohen’s congressional testimony are not accurate,” said special-counsel spokesperson Peter Carr. BuzzFeed, meanwhile, is standing by the story. On Tuesday, the outlet dumped a cache of documents related to the Moscow project, including texts and architectural renderings, as if to say: we’ve got the goods.

Days later, veterans of the Justice Department are still trying to make sense of the stare-down. “Mueller wouldn’t have done that unless he felt compelled to do it. He doesn’t really care what the media reports; he doesn’t really care what the rumors are,” said Robert Grant, a former top F.B.I. agent who used to work with Mueller. “For him to go out and do that, that’s extraordinary—which means his team must have convinced him that had to correct that because of its potential impact on the investigation. And I don’t know what those impacts might be.”

There have, after all, been countless Trump-Russia bombshells since Mueller was appointed in May 2017, and the special counsel’s office has remained virtually mum. Why step in now? “The fact that the Mueller team was willing to make a statement indicates that they must have thought that this was a serious error, and maybe even one that was unfair to witnesses and subjects of the investigation,” said Harry Sandick, a former federal prosecutor for the Southern District of New York. Eric Columbus, a former top-ranking attorney in the Justice Department, agreed. “It seems to me that Peter Carr did that with the intention of conveying that the story was largely inaccurate.”

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***Still in the very beginning of Primary Wave 5 in Cycle Wave 3

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We are starting to fall off the horizontal triangle we formed in Wave 4’s irregular correction...

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Micro-Wave 1 & 2 complete...

Higher Minor-Wave Terminal to be around $241 based on the Pink Fib Spiral.

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Expecting a very large drawdown to be imminent...

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Price-Action is currently following the Yellow Fib Spiral.

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Based on the sub-waves of the Micro-Wave, I’m expecting an extending 3rd Wave.