It's too obvious to be short

This week we saw major fireworks in the Builders and Healthcare sectors (as we'll detail more below) but the overall market indices continued to consolidate in the range highlighted in yellow.
All of the major levels we outlined the past few weeks have held so the following scenario is still in play.

We see 2 possible scenarios of which I believe the 1st scenario is more likely:

1. If the SPY             can hold the ~189 level then the expectation is that we see the market work its way higher.

We now have 2 upside targets in the form of

An unfilled gap @ 199.73
An unfilled gap @ 196.46 which is an attractive short term target.

With all the bearish sentiment in the media, I still hold that it's more probable that we see a move back towards to the upside surprising the majority of traders who have taken on bearish positions.

My mid-term target continues to be the unfilled gap way up @ 208.32 which would result in a re-test of the symmetrical triangle.

2. Else if we break and close below the consolidation pattern to the downside, expect to see the ~189 levels.

If the ~189 level fails to hold then we can expect to find ourselves back at the lows of 182.40 with the following downside targets -

Unfilled gap @ 177.48
Unfilled gap @ 173.22
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