Long

$SPY over $700 in the next ~2 weeks? A 9% move from low?

Now that the downside target in SPY hit last week, I think it's time for the blow off top to take place.

I favor a move from here that brings us to the two upper resistance levels.

The next key date that I have on the chart is October 27th, as of now, I think it's possible that we see at least one of the two levels to the upside get hit prior to that for a final move in SPY.

The marked box is the resistance level and I don't really see price exceeding those levels.

If those levels are tagged, then I think that sets up a move lower to the bottom supports, but let's focus on the upside first.

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Added more calls on the dip.

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Added more on dip

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Obviously not sure if we hit the top resistances by tomorrow, I have calls out for the next 2 weeks. I think the move is likely to play out by Nov 7th.

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Took profit on my calls at open.

May add them back later this week.

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If we do end up dipping, I think we can see somewhere between $667-660

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Welp not sure we dip much more than that. Let's see. Have some short exposure via UVXY, but also adding back longs.

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I think that's about it for downside. Should make it's way to the target now.

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Flipped back up on the pivot today

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As long as we close above $672.40, we are still bullish. Bought more calls.

Lose that level and I'll flip my bias. But if we look at the chart, just retesting prior resistance as support.

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Also another possibility is $666 gets tested before a bounce as that wasn't a level that got retested on the break back up. I lean towards that outcome if we close below $672.40.

Those are the two levels to take longs from, break those levels, and we go down to the lower supports.

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Sticking to the plan, been buying all morning. As long as $666 level holds, we see more upside. Lose that level and it gets ugly. By the sentiment, you'd think we fell 5%, but we're just back to where we were last Friday.

I still think we're in buy the dip for now.

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End of day update. Calls this morning were a good idea. Exited 0DTE and 1DTE + 200%.

As long as we close above $672.40 (which it's looking like we should), we should see the final leg higher.

Next pivot is Monday Nov 24. Let's see what happens between now and then.

Not sure if we go straight to $700+ from here or if it takes longer to play out. It is possible to go straight up if this is the top, as we usually get one final move to new highs before selling off. Most of the call volume for 700C is for January though, so let's see.

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Didn't love the close, so bought some Vix calls just incase we see further continuation next week.

We shall see what happens...

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Looking like a bottom here at 663.

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Still thinking we go higher unless we break the lower support level on the chart. Base case is a powerful rally into the highs on the chart aka a "blowoff top."

Vix is still not looking like a larger selloff is going to take place. We're close, but I don't think we get it until December or after Dec Opex.

Vix rejecting at resistance here. We've had 3 tests of the $27 level now, the next test of that level should break it, but typically 3 touches creates a powerful move in the opposite direction. If that happens, the index should have a powerful move into the highs.

I lean towards a strong rally tomorrow into next week or consolidation until the first and a rally after that. The only thing that would change my bias is VIX breaking the $27 level or SPY breaking the $652-654 supports and closing below them.

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So far, so good. A break of $676 opens up higher to $700+ and same supports need to hold otherwise it starts a bigger move down.

Vix did indeed bounce from the key level and is now down 13%. Again, as long as that level holds as resistance, we should see a powerful move in the opposite direction and SPY should move higher.

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$676 level tested today. Let's see where we go tomorrow. Everything still looking good for higher and everyone still bearish despite price continuing to move up.

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End of day update: Closing above all important levels. Next stop $689, and if we break that $700+. I like the level $711 as a potential high and it could happen as soon as next week.

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Started buying $700C for 12/31

benjihyam

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benjihyam

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