I may have found a pattern between all the corrections we've had since 2018.
There seems to be a 1.7x factor between them.
12 x 1.7 = 20.4
20.4 x 1.7 = 35
If the pattern holds true then... 35 x 1.7 = 60
If the pattern continues, then that would mean a 60% crash for SPY.
If we assume the bottom of the 60% crash follows the lower support level as shown on the chart, then that would indicate a blow off top at $500 for SPY (20% upside from current levels). 20% in only a few months would be a melt up scenario, which some contrarian analysts like David Hunter are predicting.
Anyway, just a bit of fun, not a serious piece of analysis :)
I don’t think spy will be making a lower low from March of 2020. Go on a weekly time frame and go back to 2009. You will see a trend. Yes it needs a big correction but I don’t think will be taking out last years low.
strawserpbiggskc61
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@CJS04, The strong American government will not let the stock market fall
CJS04
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@strawserpbiggskc61, you think what you want.... I remember last March when they government through 12 billion into the maket and the market rose a 1/2 a percent for 15 minutes before ending the day down 10 percent. Facts. The market does not go just up. A massive correction is needed before the market can continue going up. But you think whatever you need to tell yourself..
strawserpbiggskc61
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@CJS04, Wall Street promises that as long as you buy stocks, you can make money the next day. The stock market is rich together with communism, and everyone will have wealth freedom.💰
MacBull1557
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good job , but your analysis is only built on 3 to 4 years, statistics of 100 years SPY suggest a bear market pull back aka crash happen once every 4 year. and we already had one last year, so thats not going to happen,
a 10% correction happens once a year that is still possible since we already had 7% only, now when that will happen, no one knows, my thoughts market will keep heading up after a small hiccups then at 444 we could pull back to 400 levels. thats about it. no more the 400 is the strongest old support level back since 1990. the oldest would be the 362 which is dated back to 1931, those used to very very respected every time we reach it, it reverse, and now they are support. so a strong crash as you suggest not unlikly, it's not going to happen . keep it up though
mohamadraffiwahab
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so you are expecting world war three for this correction..
fo_jns
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they should have interviewed madoff before he died today. i would love to hear his opinion on bitcoin....lol
the fed knows archegos was the tip of the iceberg...there are 50 more behind it. margin debt maxed out, leverage maxed out...you flirt with a real 10% correction the entire system will collapse.
bluewater23t
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So no 60% correction until SPY hits 500? that could be a while.
fo_jns
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@bluewater23t, at this trajectory 500 could be in a month...lol
Huntz
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@bluewater23t, Avg returns for SPY over the last 10 years has been 13% yoy, so 20% (412 to 500) in a matter of months would be a melt up, according to this thesis. Could come sooner than you think. But I'm not an oracle, this isn't guaranteed to happen haha