Here is a scenario for a 50%-61.8% retracement for SPY, up above $282, before continuing it's sell off.
Looking to the left, there was a very similar structure in late February into early March. You can see how the peaks are quite identical, and on the low following the last peak, there was a retracement between 50%-61.8%... and also to the area of the 100MA.
Currently, that would represent a bounce up above 282 before the selling resumes.
On the current chart, I drew 2 fib lines...
The left one is just to show that the intraday bounce on Friday, March 22 came no where near the level that could be expected from the earlier chart, which would have been between 282.30 and 282.90. It instead topped out at 281.51. This was also well short of the 100MA. If that was THE retracement, then steep selling is likely to continue.
If the low associated with the left fib lines is not "the low following the last peak", then we can count it as not in yet, and take the lowest low from the end of the day. The right fib lines are to show how high the retracement could be before the selling continues. Also, notice the little RSI divergence to end the day...
Both scenarios are bearish, and would see new lows by this time next week.
This is merely to point out the precedence of a possible nice bullish play before we get there....IF the bounce to 281.51 was not it.
Travis JMJ - UIOGD
Comment
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we have a better chance of the low here with the double bottom around $278.
look for the retracement from $278 into $281.40 ... then bears take over.
Trade closed: target reached
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SPY had its 50% retracement from the low... it could go higher..61.8 is not far... but that was the retrace, so it can resume lower now. trailing out.