Look for SPY to unravel over the next few weeks with a VIX spike that sends it down to $291. My analysis is that ~290 is the completion of this bearish cycle. It also lines up with support established in 2018 and 2019. Down there is a long term buy, but it really could go as low as 155 in an extreme bear case (would need further exogenous shocks in the macroeconomy).
All time high = $480 February Low = $410 (A) WAVE: 480/410 = 17% drop
March high = $462 June low = $362 (B) WAVE: 462/362= 28% drop
28 / 17 = 1.65 28 (1.65) = (C) WAVE: ~45% estimated 3rd wave down from August highs ($432), which sends SPY to the 290s
"Elliott Wave is not a trading technique. There are no specific rules of entry or exit, nor is there one “right” way to use it in trading. As a result, the use of Elliott Wave has been avoided by many traders and technical analysts, not due to a lack of understanding but because of the apparently subjective nature of how it may be applied." school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:introduction_to_elliott_wave_theory
Bullish_Harambe
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In Elliot Wave Theory, wave 4 cannot enter the price territory of wave 1. This count is not valid.
@Bullish_Harambe, Thank you for the feedback, I am new to Elliott wave. This was my first stab at it. I guess my general analysis is that this bearish cycle will have a third and final leg down, and that it is currently underway.
JoeChampion
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Sweet!!
Tradersweekly
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Thank you for the short idea.
ProjectSyndicate
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proper TA with great summary I like it
Sawyer170
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pivot 406, 4th support 321, or 5th support 297 lines. 1day time. Support lines as in possible bottoms. Or out of nowhere tomorrow or any morning a huge rally kick starts from being have already done crossed below the 30 line on the daily RSI, and that it just a week or so long relief rally to just come back down to a lower low/bottom out finally, or the rally could just not stop and be the early beginning to the bull market oh wouldn't that be something huh.