Morning all. With the earning that came out last night, expect a solid gap up this morning. Pre market already up to 265 ish (as of 7:45am), and when the market opens it'll most likely spike higher the first 15-30 minutes.
The circle is my general price range for this morning spike. I'm guessing it will gap fill and most likely triple top at 266.50, and if it breaks that, then we are testing that red line around 268. If it hits that, I will feel very comfortable in doing a SPY put, probably 255 - 262 range. Good risk/reward setup at this height. But nothing is guaranteed, so be ready to adapt friends.
Best of luck.
I'M NOT A PROFESSIONAL, THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE.
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Took the FED's speaking to make this analysis a reality (I forgot this morning that they were speaking at 2), but it target hit fairly well.
If things break that red line over the coming days, time to start being a bull. Until that confirmation, I'm still bearish in the next 1-2 months.
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Just an update. The target was hit, but with earnings this week, I wouldn't be surprised if there is a break thru. Will it sustain? Who knows. I'm thinking fake out upwards to 269-270. If we get daily candles that close above that line, time to swap over and go long for a bit. This is a 3 month down trend, so breaking it could lead to retesting the 281 level.
All about risk/reward. I think here is a good setup to go short, but it could turn from bearish to bullish by Friday depending on earnings.