So, if you read my last idea about SPY/SPX you knew I was hanging up the permabear hat and only focusing on longs this week. The reasons for this were:
1. The PA 2. The probabilities 3. The general position of SPX/SPY/ES within the distribution (lower end of neutral range)
This has served me well, but I did diverge slightly from this rule with NVDA, having swung that short to 258 (I did post an idea about this). But in terms of the general theme of the week, being long biased and not swinging short on the indices was the correct call. My swings this week were:
NVDA short (Idea posted) RIVN long (Idea posted) IWM long (no idea posted, was an impulsive move just based on the PA) BA long (idea posted)
And then the rest just day traded. And shockingly no stop outs this week. There was 1 stop out, but it was at flat. So great week!
Now let's talk about where we are:
We are now pushing towards the 2.1% probability range. This starts at around 411$.
If you look at our technicals on the daily, everything is capped out. Which is typical SPY behaviour. Just push it until it can't be pushed no more and then continue to push it anyway.
But the question we care about really is what the probs say for next week. So the advanced probabilities are pretty neutral with a slight favoring to the upside. Our two major targets are 414 to the upside, with a probability assigned of 55% and 402 to the downside, with a probability assigned of 44%. SPX is not very helpful in tie breaking, but def bullish bias there as well.
These results are not convincing for any type of positioning in either direction, imo. Based on simple bell curve probability, the likelihood we cross above 411 and hold is 2.1% The likelihood we break above 415 and hold is current 0.1%. This is all based on YTD data.
For me, I am going to let the PA and 99s decide which positions I take as a swing. Next week is a new month, we will have 99% everywhere, on UPRO, SPX, IWM, SPY, DIA, etc. Lots of reference targets, lots of fresh data and a new outlook. I will swing with a break of a weekly threshold as well (if SPY or IWM breaks the weekly bullish threshold, I will swing long, vice versa short because the probabilities are fairly neutral at this point and so PA will need to guide us here).
These are my immediate thoughts I wanted to share going into the week. Will do more detailed stuff as the week actually opens.
BTW, I will be releasing the bell curve indicator at some point once I finish working out the kinks. As well, I have another one that uses RSI to predict pullback prices and converts RSI and stochastics into a MA which will also be released soon:
As its been a really winning and straight forward week for me, I have been able to focus my insights on diversifying my analyses (with these other videos and ideas I have been doing) and working on indicators instead of desperately trying to recover from losses and whipsaw PA haha. Its been nice haha.
The Bell Curve indicator is awesome! Very much looking forward to its release.
BlackisKing
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This clown tried to discredit my research on the market bottoming, now he is hanging up his permabear hat. lol what a joke
Steversteves
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@BlackisKing, I didn't, I simply made an objective observation about your analysis that is still factual.
BlackisKing
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@Steversteves, Haha, The only factual thing is that you turned bullish afterwards.
Steversteves
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@BlackisKing, But not really, I only follow the projections and not really my own sentiment. When it says short, I short. When it says long, I long. I just made tons shorting BA and IWM because that was the right answer ;). Its best to be mendable and not so rigid in your approach to contemporary markets I find.
BlackisKing
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@Steversteves, I follow the charts not noise like you and others were making then. But at least you are now bull and we are on same side. I will change my thesis if things change and the charts tell me otherwise.
Steversteves
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@BlackisKing, That is an unfair statement seeing that even when my ideas were "following noise", they were still 95% of the time correct. Hence why people follow me. I think if you want to criticize, criticize my analysis and not my opinions or my personal beliefs.
BlackisKing
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@Steversteves, I don't see anything that is unfair in stating factual statement. It is disingenuous to say "I think if you want to criticize, criticize my analysis and not my opinions or my personal beliefs." having done exactly the same. With regards to following, people follow people for all sorts of reason.
Steversteves
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@BlackisKing, Hmm, it seems like you don't understand the point of my comment which has lead to clearly some nasty resentment for you to feel the need to come here and troll me. I am sorry that you feel this way. But my comment simply pointed out what my math model said, which was your thesis has happened multiple times in the past and not all of those times lead to the result you are claiming. This was not me criticizing your opinion. As the data being fed to me about your opinion was from a computer which is incapable in this day and age of making subjective appraisals of people's opinions. It simply pointed out the circumstance you were measuring, the amount of times it has happened and the end result. In fact, the comment was 90% of me just copying and pasting from the computer which is why its formatted so weird. In fact, it even agreed with you in a sense that, if we close above X line the results are actually pretty reliable (which we have still yet to do). To which I also pointed out that this a really good catch. But we still are not there yet. I couldn't have been any more diplomatic in my response, yet you come here and very personally attack me. Its quite concerning. But tis the world of the internet I suppose.
BlackisKing
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@Steversteves, I find it funny when you claim something is misleading based on the available data Tradingview had at the time. I don't think that is being diplomatic but being a troll. Next time stop being a troll to others, if you don't have something nice or constructive to say then most time its best to keep quite.