FractalTrader

wave pattern and momentum looking for a bit higher

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
78 2 4
Unlike corrections, bullish trends seldom end on a momentum high. They tend to exhaust, and leave a divergence in momentum . The pattern I see as a possibility here looks like a WXY corrective pattern.

Shorter term, the c-wave is possibly ending in an expanding diagonal formation, but needs another push to highs to complete the pattern. The interpretation is wrong if price moves below 208 before making new highs, and shouldn't exceed 216 on the upside. My target is 214-215 area.

Intermediate term, should this pattern play out, I'm looking for a correction that will retrace 38.2% at a minimum.

I'm posting a neutral bias here, because shorting against strong momentum is seldom advised. It's better to wait for an indication that the count is correct, meaning it reaches the price objective, and gives an indication of reversal. On the other hand, going long here is just as risky, with a very over-extended rise with very few pullbacks of any kind.
ChartArt
a year ago
It's a tricky area here, because the MACD (which everyone watches) is starting to get bearish and the price structure is close to exhaustion already. But overall it could be a dip inside this uptrend if buyers show up on Monday, because the price sits so nicely attractive cheap on the weekly pivot:

snapshot
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ChartArt ChartArt
a year ago
And the price appears to be back in the old uptrend channel of September (diagonal black line):

snapshot
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